Social protection Assessment based national dialogue in Myanmar

Social protection Assessment based national dialogue in Myanmar Workshop on evaluating the cost of social protection policy options September 3 rd-5 th, 2014 Nay Pyi Taw

Session 3: Cost and impact of social protection

Key questions • What are the limitations of the RAP model when considering the adoption of social protection policy options? • What are the other elements, apart form the potential costs, that need to be taken into account when formulating a social protection package? • How can those be formulated?

Limitations of the costing model RAP • The Rapid Assessment Protocol is a simple costing tool which provide estimates of the cost and necessary fiscal space for the implementation of social protection floors at country level. • It is not dynamic, it does not provide information on the potential impact: – The short term impact on beneficiary household revenue, access to services and well-being. – The long term impact on human development and economic growth.

The potential impact of social protection • Examples (non exhaustive) Short run Long run o Fulfillment of human right no. 22 / ILO Recommendation no. 202 for more people (wider coverage of higher benefits). o Enhanced resilience of the population. o Avoided catastrophic health expenditure or hardship for a wider number of people. o A number of people get out of monetary poverty. o Etc. o Inequality reduction and social cohesion. o Reduction of multidimensional poverty and inter-generational transmission of poverty. o Enhanced productivity sustained consumption. o Etc. and

Convincing governments to invest in social protection • Simulations and ex ante assessments (e. g. Viet Nam) of the impact of social protection policies on individual and household expenditures and poverty status need to be performed • Direct effect: When households avail social protection benefits, their income increases, thus reducing poverty • Multiplier effect: With higher income, households buy food, goods and services, thereby generating more income for the economy • Behavioural effects: When households use health care and education services, it leads to better health, higher productivity, increased human capital

Impact of social protection Framework of the “Rate of return on investment in social protection” model

Impact of social protection Model on the “Rate of return on investment in social protection” in Cambodia (draft)

How to formulate the desired impact at country level? • Understand what is the goal of the scheme or package of schemes: – Why did we propose this scheme? • A need / a problem. • A desired change, a vision of how the situation should be if the problem was resolved / the need was satisfied. – It is against that desired change that goals and objectives are set.

How to formulate the desired impact at country level? • Goals and objectives – Goals are a broad picture of the desired end result / final outcome. ÞExample: Elderly persons in Myanmar live a life in dignity and enjoy financial and physical autonomy, in line with Human Right. – Objectives are contributing to the goals but they are measurable and time bound. ÞExample: By 2020, 100% of the elderly population of Myanmar will enjoy income security through either a contributory old age pension or a non-contributory old age pension. • The proposed social protection schemes need to be in line with the goals defined by the country and their design must respond to the identified objectives.

Group exercise Formulating the desired impact • Form four groups. • Discuss within your group: Þ What are the goal(s) and objective(s) of the proposed social protection packages and the various schemes they include in Myanmar? Þ Fill in the provided matrix. Social protection package Goals 1. 2. Objectives You have 20 minutes