Social and demographic changes and their spatial effects

Social and demographic changes and their spatial effects – the Czech experience Karel Maier Czech Technical University in Prague WD-07 -07 -4 Koncepce územního plánování a disparity v území (ČVUT Praha) WD-40 -07 -1 POLYREG – Podpora polycentrického regionálního rozvoje (MU Brno) Cities of Tomorrow Workshop 1 Brussels 28 -29 June 2010

Patterns of spatial change migrants from abroad CITY re-urbanization + ribbon sprawl spatial sectoral segregation white-collar & services jobs NON-RESIDENTIAL lower middle new rich, upper-middle E SM retail CITY SUBURBAN BELT s offices national & multinational headquarters rural „grassroots“ spatial social segregation H CR IGH OS W SI AY NG S sprawl / suburbanization elderly blue & pink collars RESIDENTIAL posh gentrifiers from 1990 onwards spatial change driven by individual choices in weak planning environment MAJOR HIGHWAY CORRIDORS warehousing, logistics, assembling plants big RELATIVE change + big SPEED of the change easy to prove by empirical (quantitative) research – demographic statistics, census, planning permissions

qualitative spatial change RICH MIDDLE CLASS elderly migrants elderly MIDDLE CLASS POOR 1990 towards 2020? central posh enclaves gated suburban enclaves suburban satellites RICH compact city & garden suburbs IN-BETWEENS? MIDDLE CLASS? housing estates POOR dilapidated exclusion enclaves size of the change? significance of the change? less empirical (quantitative) evidence hypotheses, case studies

emerging new pattern of functional city region centre CBD compact city housing estates „new towns“ rural village high-income locality suburban shopping / servicing centre rural village encroached by new residences brownfields, deprived neighbourhoods

Population ageing: selective problem of places on local scale Czech Republic big housing estates in selected Czech cities (Praha, Plzeň, České Budějovice, Hradec Králové, Pardubice) source: Czech Statistical Office

Impact of the changes increased life expectation demographic change • delayed marriages and births • low birth rates ageing population decline migration • • • from outside EU inside EU from outside CZ inside CZ varied prosperity • • metropolitan area of Prague prosperous regional centres rural country old industrial parts increased spatial disparities

Issues, challenges and their management newly emerged ISSUES • control and safety • released control increased unsafety • personal • property privatisation of safety control • real emergence X perception of crime risk • climate hazards • floods • accessibility • services • jobs upcoming CHALLENGES • ageing population • decreasing social cohesion • peak oil? ARENA FOR MANAGEMENT OF THE CHANGES • poorly pronounced public interest • national strategies & frameworks follow EU guidance • weak role of regional governance local decisions under control of local power groups and developers • development-oriented public opinion • civic groups treated as problem-makers X NIMBY DIVERSIFIED IMPACT on particular • • regions cities neighbourhoods SOCIAL GROUPS WINNERS X LOSERS WHICH GAME? • win – win? • zero sum? • lose – lose?

Recommendations governance • new supra-municipal tier of governance Ø Ø Ø management of urban sprawl / suburbanization co-ordinated development / provision of services and facilities co-ordinated development of transportation infrastructure planning • top-down o o o inward-oriented development policy internalisation of service costs enforcement of standards for new residential design – passable neighbourhoods – small-grained homogeneous units – compact cities – small-distance cities • „soft“ o campaign for better awareness of long-term impact of social fragmentation – Sustainable Cities

thank you maier@fa. cvut. cz 9