Social Analysis in PSIA Renate Kirsch Nairobi December

Social Analysis in PSIA Renate Kirsch Nairobi, December 2006 1

TIPS Sourcebook: A framework for Social Analysis 2

Social Analysis in PSIA n Institutional: the “rules of the game” that people develop to govern group behavior and interaction in political, economic and social spheres of life n Political: the structure of power relations and often-entrenched interests of different stakeholders n Social: the social relationships that govern interaction at different organizational levels, including households, communities and social groups. Important to signal that reforms n n n are manifested through institutional mechanisms have important political economy dimensions have differential impacts on different social groups 3

What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA? n n n Explains how social identity and social relations may affect reform outcomes and impacts (ethnic minorities in Laos) Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints (Tanzania Crop Board) Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy (Indonesia Imported Rice Tariff Pricing) Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks (Zambia land reform) Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms 4

What are institutions? n Organizations as well as “Rules of the Game” n n n may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms) Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: n n n the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and the societal domain (governing community and family behavior). 5

TIPS Sourcebook: A framework for Social Analysis 6

Macro Level Country Context • Country Social Analysis • Power Analysis • Drivers of Change Macro Level Country & Reform context Reform Context • Stakeholder. Analysis Matrices • Political Mapping • Network Analysis • Transaction. Cost Analysis • The RAPID Framework 7

1. Macro level social analysis: Understanding country context n What is the significance of: Historical context n Political-ideological climate n Political-institutional culture n Economic and social make-up n 8

Country Social Analysis (CSA) n upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions n provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable, n The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions: n Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods n What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor? n Power, institutions, and governance n What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ? 9

Country Social Analysis Yemen Three objectives: n n n Factors that contributed to inclusion/exclusion of specific socioeconomic groups, The processes that enhanced or weakened cohesion within and among groups, The means by which people could hold institutions accountable. Pursued through an Analysis of Livelihoods: n n n Change of livelihood pattern in secondary towns and how this affects access to assets and services of different social groups. Livelihood strategies in rural areas. Most poverty is in rural areas with farming predominant livelihood, rural people’s access to assets, institutions Analysis of the alignment of government policies and investments with people’s strategies. . 10

Country Social Analysis: Yemen, Findings n n n Inequality is increasingly becoming an issue in Yemen. Youth, women and rural people are becoming marginalized from the economy as traditional livelihood systems decline but are not replaced with new opportunities Insufficient integration of modern and customary norms is rapidly changing the rules for managing communal resources such as land water. This is resulting in the concentration of productive land in the hands of a small number of powerful families, while the poor have diminishing access to either rural or urban land Poverty, inequality and patronage also threaten social cohesion in Yemen. Current systems of social solidarity at the household and communal levels are stressed as a result of deepening poverty. 11

Country Social Analysis: Yemen, Findings II n There also new opportunities for socioeconomic inclusion. Social mobility in Yemen used to be based on social status, now the cash economy and state education provide are means for social advancement of historically marginalized groups 12

Macro Level Country Context • Country Social Analysis • Power Analysis • Drivers of Change Macro Level Country & Reform context Reform Context • Stakeholder. Analysis Matrices • Political Mapping • Network Analysis • Transaction. Cost Analysis • The RAPID Framework 13

1. Macro Level Social Analysis: Understanding policy reform context Policy reform is highly political and not a technical exercise. If political-economic and social context of the reform is not understood, danger that the designed is a ‘one-size-fits-allsolution’ ignoring country specific factors that can be crucial for the success or failure of reform. Macro-level stakeholder analysis: Understanding the interests of political actors, economic or social influential groups and the incentives under which they operate n Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them? Who opposes? What is the danger of elite capture? Difficulty here: Interests change over time Macro-level institutional analysis n Questions: What are the institutional rules and relationships that influence policy reform? What is the capacity of the institutions to implement the reform? 14

Political Mapping What is it? Political Mapping is a tool for organizing information about the political landscape in an illustrative way. Political mapping provides analysis of political alliances at the macro (national or sector) level. The tool can provide an entry-point to a more in-depth analysis of the political economy. What can it be used for? Political mapping identifies the most important political actors and spatially illustrates their relationships to one another with respect to policy design and delivery. • Provide a graphic representation of the political viability of a regime Offer clues about the vulnerabilities of the regime Detect the existence of opposing alliances and potential support coalitions Give an indication of the level of authority possessed by the regime Help indicate implementation capacity of various actors Detect new directions in policy What does it tell you? The tool can illustrate the distribution and nature of support or opposition to government with respect to a given reform. Key elements For purposes of making sense of a complex political landscape, a political map simplifies the real world into two dimensions: horizontal and vertical, with the actors on the vertical axis and the degree of their support for the government on the horizontal axis. Since the government is the primary focus of decision-making regarding how the benefits to society will be distributed, it is always placed at the centre of the map 15

Political mapping: Import tariff on Rice Two opposing arguments: • Higher Rice Tariff for imported rice: higher incomes for farmers and rural workers (protectionist producer focus) • Abolish/Reduce Rice Tariff: poor people are net rice consumers not producers and suffer economic hardship with higher prices (poverty consumer focus) Opposition sectors Support sectors International NGOs External actors Sector position Anti-system Social sectors Small farmers in Region X Legal opposition World Bank, IMF, WTO Ideological support Core support Ideological support Urban consumers Political actors Opposition socialist party Pressure groups Farmworker federation Opposition Neoliberal party 16

Meso Level Stakeholder Analysis Matrices Micro - Political Mapping Force - Field Analysis Meso Level Policy Implementation Institutional Analysis Static Mapping Process Tracing Process Mapping 17

2. Meso Level Social Analysis: Understanding the policy implementation process n Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail n Understand the rules and incentives that govern stakeholder behaviour and institutional relationships during the implementation of policy reform. n Puts us in a better position to predict or explain how policies can change and sometimes distort the expected impact of policy reform. 18

2. Meso Level Social Analysis Stakeholders and Institutions n Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis n n Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. Meso-level Institutional analysis n Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy 19

Stakeholder Analysis What is it? Stakeholder Analysis is a systematic methodology that uses qualitative data to determine the interests and influence of different groups in relation to a reform. What can it be used for? While stakeholder analysis can be carried out for any type of reform, it is particularly amenable to structural and sectoral reforms. Basic stakeholder analysis should precede reform design and should be consistently deepened as reform elements are finalized. Stakeholder analysis is also critical for informing an end-of-exercise assessment of the risks to policy reform. What does it tell you? Once different types of stakeholder have been identified and listed, matrices and other illustrative devices can be developed that map: (i) the nature of their interest in policy reform (whether positive or negative); (ii) the extent to which stakeholder interests converge or overlap; (iii) their importance to the reform; (iii) their influence over the reform onto four quadrants. Key elements Stakeholder Analysis is iterative and usually proceeds through the following sources of data to reach final conclusions: (i) background information on constraints to effective government policy making; (ii) key informant interviews and group workshops that identify specific stakeholders relevant to the sustainability of policy reform. When working with groups, Participants should be drawn from diverse groups of interest in order to limit bias; (iii) verification of assumptions about stakeholder influence and interest through survey work and quantitative analysis 20 of secondary data.

Legend 21

Stakeholders Analysis: Ghana Electricity Tariffs 22

Organisational Mapping What is it? A visual illustration that combines mapping and tracing techniques to illustrate and analyse the flows of resources, information and decision making. What can it be used for? Following the path of services, products, money, decisions and information in the implementation of policy reform Communicating process-related ideas, information and data in an effective visual form. Identifying actual or ideal paths, revealing problem areas of risk and potential solutions. Showing intricate connections and sequences clearly. Aids in critical communication, problem-solving and decision-making processes. Permits immediate identification of any element of a process. What does it tell you? What activities are completed, by whom, in what sequence. Hand-offs between departments or individuals. Internal and external operational boundaries. Helps identify areas where a process can be improved. Key elements Organisational mapping involves three analytical steps that can be used sequentially or independently: static (institutional) mapping, process tracing and process mapping. 23

Institutional Analysis: Analytical sequencing in organizational mapping Figure 4. 1. Analytical Sequencing in Organizational Mapping Static Mapping Process Tracing Process Mapping Identify and place actors in a spatial map Trace cause-effect flows in key processes between actors Map out the dynamics and relations between actors Examples: Chad cotton Examples: Chittagong port Examples: Chad cotton 24

Institutional Analysis: Static and Process Mapping Cotton Chad: Decrease in quality? “White as snow” … but always Producersdowngraded! Accord d’Ouverture Interface CT resp. for quality of cotton after signing of Accord… in theory Marche Autogere Convoyer Transporters Coton. Chad Ginnery Commission de Classement Technical Transformation and Production Duala 97% first class cotton He “travels with the cotton” … and with bribes, in case cotton has been downgraded Biased balance of power -Japan -France -Europe 25

Micro Level Analytical Frameworks for Impact Evaluation Micro Level Impact of Policy Reform Data collection methods • Vulnerability Assessment • Gender Analysis • Livelihoods Analysis • Empowerment Analysis Secondary Research Methods Contextual Methods Non-contextual Methods Participatory Methods Mixed Methods 26

Micro Level Social Analysis n Apply Analytical Frameworks for Impact Evaluation n n Livelihoods Framework Analysis Gender Analysis Vulnerability Assessment Use qualitative and quantitative methods for data collection n n n Key informant Interviews, Focus Group Discussion Community Level Household Questionnaire Household Economy Approach Consultative Impact Monitoring Consumer Assessment PPA, RRA, 27

Consumer Assessment What is it? A mixed-method tool that (i) spatially maps social indicators, indicators of access, quality of service, formal and informal prices of services, and socio-economic data (ii) combines this with information on willingness and ability to pay, and on consumer preferences from both qualitative and quantitative field research; and (iii) for certain sectors (utilities) inputs this data into financial models of the utility in an interactive manner to inform policy choices. What can it be used for? Data generated by consumer assessment can be used to understand how prices are transmitted (or not) from the formal to the informal sector, and to analyzes qualitative factors in price levels (social capital, neighborhood type, informal networks) in order to determine the distributional impact of tariff changes, or changes in service provision such as privatization of utilities. It can also inform the indicators of performance included in private management contracts so that they respond more closely to consumer priorities. Most useful for policy changes involving urban areas such as utility reform. What does it tell you? The consumer assessment method has been used in several African countries (Mozambique, Lesotho, Zambia, Angola among others) to help inform policies related to the introduction of the private sector in the water and electricity services, and in setting and structuring socially and economically sustainable tariff policies for these services. It is useful in the African context, for services such as water, where formal services may reach only a minority of the urban population, and where actual tariff 28 increases may depend on both the institutions that put them in place, and the informal

What determines the choice of analytical focus and methods? Nature of impacts (direct and indirect) n Channel through which impacts are transmitted n Data, resources, client capacity and time n Remember: You can not skip a level !!!!! n However, the emphasis to each levels varies considerably according to case context n Most information will be obtained via literature review and existing analyses n 29

Mixed method approach n Combining Social and Economic Analysis n n Bringing a social, economic and sectoral lens to the research questions Combining quantitative and qualitative methods n Assess research questions with different methods and tools 30

Analytical focus vs type of data and analysis Social Quantitative analysis Socio-cultural basis of social exclusion Access to assets and services differentiated by gender or ethnicity Economic Qualitative analysis Institutional economics Impact of removal of agricultural subsidies on production 31

Qualitative and quantitative dimensions of poverty and social impact analysis More “qualitative” research <<<< Non-numerical information Specific (contextual) population coverage Active population involvement Inductive inference methodology Broad social sciences disciplinary framework >>>>>More “quantitative” research Numerical information General (non-contextual) population coverage Passive population involvement Deductive inference methodology Neo-classical economics (and natural sciences) disciplinary framework 32

Combining tools from different disciplines Use qualitative methods to understand context, relationships, patterns – informs the design of a survey questionnaire n Use quantitative methods to assess extent to which phenomena occur (generalization, representation) n Use qualitative methods to unpack issues which are hard to explain from survey results n 33

Three ways to combine methods n Joint conceptual framework In parallel n In sequential n Iterative Basis for identifying results and developing recommendations 34