SOA International Experience Study IES Bogota Colombia November
SOA International Experience Study (IES) Bogota, Colombia November 23, 2011
Columbia Actuaries Meeting SOA IES Overview “ Beware Greeks Bearing Gifts ” 2
IES HISTORY 2002 “Brainstorming” 2003 -4 International Surveys 2005 + Country Initiative and IES “Tool Kit” 2008 + IAA MWG Endorsed & Adopted IES 3
IES Organization SOA IAA MWG IES 4 Corporate Contributors
IES Outreach Effort § No Cost to participating companies § SOA confidentially compiles data § Local actuaries supervision 5
Finances Contributions Company EU ISC 6 SOA
Corporate Sponsors § § § AXA ING Met. Life New York Life Prudential Financial (US) Zurich 7
Finances Expenses Tool Travel 8
Finances § MOST IMPORTANT • Volunteer Time! • Over 50 companies have participated • Over 1, 000 hours invested 9
Local Country Initiative § Local Industry Meetings • • Rio de Janiero – September 2004 Warsaw – October 2004 Guatemala City – August 2005 Taipei / Seoul / Bangkok – August 2007 Hanoi – July 2008 Tallinn – May 2009 Zagreb – September/October 2011 10
Local Country Initiative § Local Actuarial Association Sponsors • • • Vietnam Chief Actuaries (2006) Actuarial Society of Philippines (2008) Estonia Actuarial Society (2009) Hong Kong Actuarial Society (2010) Caribbean Actuarial Association (2010) 11
Country Experience § Risk exposure is country specific § Examples • • • Argentina Caribbean Estonia Philippines Poland Vietnam 12
90, 000 Argentina Exposure 80, 000 70, 000 Policy Years 60, 000 50, 000 Male 40, 000 Female 30, 000 20, 000 10, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 13 58 63 68 73 78 83
Caribbean Exposure 450, 000 400, 000 350, 000 Policy Years 300, 000 250, 000 Male Female 200, 000 150, 000 100, 000 50, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 14 58 63 68 73 78 83
50, 000 Estonia Exposure 45, 000 40, 000 Policy Years 35, 000 30, 000 25, 000 Male Female 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 15 58 63 68 73 78 83
400, 000 Philippines Exposure 350, 000 300, 000 Policy Years 250, 000 200, 000 Male Female 150, 000 100, 000 50, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 16 58 63 68 73 78 83
140, 000 Poland Exposure 120, 000 Policy Years 100, 000 80, 000 Male Female 60, 000 40, 000 20, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 17 58 63 68 73 78 83
3, 000 Vietnam Exposure 2, 500, 000 Policy Years 2, 000 1, 500, 000 Male Female 1, 000 500, 000 0 10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 Issue Age 18 58 63 68 73 78 83
Experience § Caution • Early studies • “Data cleaning” is prospective (future) • Credibility (small samples) 19
35% Lapse Rates 30% Lapse Rate 25% Argentina 20% Caribbean Estonia 15% Philippines Poland Vietnam 10% 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Policy Duration 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Mortality Rates (annual) 100. 00% 0 -9 10 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -49 50 -59 60 -69 70 -79 80+ 10. 00% AR HK 1. 00% PH PL VN 0. 10% 0. 01% 0. 00% 21
Contacts § Bill Horbatt: horbatt@actmasol. com § Ronora Stryker: rstryker@soa. org 22
- Slides: 22