So much coastal flooding Whats going on Research

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So much coastal flooding! What’s going on? Research can help COL Policy Forum 2013

So much coastal flooding! What’s going on? Research can help COL Policy Forum 2013 Larry Atkinson Director, Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative Old Dominion University Norfolk VA

Bottom Line • Coastal Sea Level is Rising and in some areas rising faster

Bottom Line • Coastal Sea Level is Rising and in some areas rising faster every year • Coastal storms - more frequent - more powerful • Ocean Research can help us better predict future sea level along our coasts and types of coastal storms 3/6/2013 Mayflower Road at Norfolk’s Colonial Place neighborhood was mostly underwater as high tide approached in November 2009 (Stephen M. Katz- Virginian Pilot file photo). Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 2

We are experiencing more coastal flooding 3/6/2013 Our cities are experiencing more hours of

We are experiencing more coastal flooding 3/6/2013 Our cities are experiencing more hours of flooding every year. Not just Storms – but unusual high tides. Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 3

Sea Level is Rising Mid-Atlantic areas look similar but not such high SLR’s 3/6/2013

Sea Level is Rising Mid-Atlantic areas look similar but not such high SLR’s 3/6/2013 Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 4

Why? The Gulf Stream has been slowing down and our coastal sea level has

Why? The Gulf Stream has been slowing down and our coastal sea level has been going up. This is causing the increasing rate of SLR. This is climate change affecting coastal sea level and causing more flooding Cause sea level to go up here 3/6/2013 Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI Gulf Stream slows down here 5

Coastal Storms Changing • Example Superstorm Sandy – More energy from warmer ocean –

Coastal Storms Changing • Example Superstorm Sandy – More energy from warmer ocean – Effect of less ice in Arctic Ocean – Moisture from Gulf of Mexico 3/6/2013 New paths and strength of storms – Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 6

Why Predict Sea Level Rise along our Coasts? Information to coastal engineers, city planners,

Why Predict Sea Level Rise along our Coasts? Information to coastal engineers, city planners, emergency managers. Need planning horizons out 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 years 3/6/2013 How high to jack up the house? What about the road, utilities, storm drains? Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 7

Huge Federal Presence – most cannot move (easily) 3/6/2013 Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI

Huge Federal Presence – most cannot move (easily) 3/6/2013 Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 8

“Potential relative sea-level change must be considered in every USACE coastal activity as far

“Potential relative sea-level change must be considered in every USACE coastal activity as far inland as the extent of estimated tidal influence. ” US Army Corps of Engineers (2011) Virginia Report 3/6/2013 Federal Report Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 9

Research can help • Better planning, emergency preparation, and more effective adaptation • Examples

Research can help • Better planning, emergency preparation, and more effective adaptation • Examples – – Is the Gulf Stream slowing down? – Is less ice in the Arctic changing our storm tracks and strength? – Flooding predictions – what areas to protect? 3/6/2013 Atkinson - ODU - CCSLRI 10