Smarter Crown copyright Met Office The past is

Smarter © Crown copyright Met Office

The past is not a reliable indicator for the future © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate Change – An Overview © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate Change Observations © Crown copyright Met Office

Sources of observation © Crown copyright Met Office

Recent evidence: Central England Temperature Warming in Central England Temperature in the last 50 years is very likely due to human activities 2006 - warmest year on record (CET - continuous record back to 1659) © Crown copyright Met Office

Global average temperature © Crown copyright Met Office

Arctic sea-ice extent: decrease since mid-1970 s © Crown copyright Met Office

CO 2 Concentrations © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate Change – Impacts © Crown copyright Met Office

The greenhouse effect © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate System © Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met Office

Our Supercomputer • Trillion (million) calculations every second. • Allows bigger and better models – e. g. Climate Change modelling. • Better models = Improved forecasts • New supercomputer 2009. © Crown copyright Met Office

Improved accuracy Our forecasts are as accurate three days ahead as they were one day ahead 20 years ago. © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate models continue to be improved © Crown copyright Met Office

Model Temporal Resolution Now Climate 1 hours Decadal 6 hour Seasonal 1 day Monthly 6 days © Crown copyright Met Office 3 days

Adaptation © Crown copyright Met Office

The future winter summer UK temperature change winter summer UK precipitation change % Preliminary scenarios prepared for UKCP 09 © Crown copyright Met Office

UK impacts Heatwaves © Crown copyright Met Office

UK impacts Summer rainfall • Summer rainfall decreasing • Water restrictions • Wildfire risk • Summer storms becoming more intense • Localised but severe flash flooding • Tornadoes? © Crown copyright Met Office

UK impacts Winter rainfall • Winter rainfall increasing • Greater flood risk • Near misses become hits • Winter snowfall decreasing • Cold snaps still likely • Less prepared when it happens? © Crown copyright Met Office

UK climate change +2 °C 2040? London summer temperature increases by 3. 5 °C, hottest day 5 °C © Crown copyright Met Office

Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961 -90) °C European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040 s, cool by 2060 s © Crown copyright Met Office observations Had. CM 3 Medium-High (SRES A 2) 2003 2060 s 2040 s

UK impacts Heatwaves: Summer 2003 © Crown copyright Met Office

UK extreme rainfall • More rain in winter • More extreme events • Unusual storminess, very warm sea surface temperature © Crown copyright Met Office

Coastal Flooding Sea level rise gradual increase • Thermal expansion • Greenland ice-sheet melting (becomes irreversible at 2°C) • Storm surges o 1953 floods, 300 drowned, 24, 000 houses damaged © Crown copyright Met Office

Adaptation Case Studies © Crown copyright Met Office

Case study: Anglian Water “What does climate change mean for flood risk in the Anglian Water region? ” © Environment Agency © Crown copyright Met Office

Winter rainfall extremes? Specifically: • How is extreme rainfall predicted to change? • What will a future rainfall event with a 20 -year return period, resemble in today’s climate? Answer: Extreme rainfall events will be more frequent. © Crown copyright Met Office

Adaptation considerations • How sensitive is the activity to the change? • What is the expected change? • How certain are the projections? • What are the impacts – direct and indirect? • Implementation timescales? • Costs and benefits of adaptation? These consideration may need contributory expertise from a number of disciplines. © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate change impacts Bangladesh 1970 Cyclone Bhola: 500, 000 people killed © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate change impacts Bangladesh 2007 Cyclone Sidr: 3, 300 people killed © Crown copyright Met Office

How do you eat an elephant? How do we adapt to CC? © Crown copyright Met Office

Working together © Crown copyright Met Office

The past is not a reliable indicator for the future © Crown copyright Met Office

Questions and Answers © Crown copyright Met Office