Slowing Arctic Warming and Sea Ice Melt By

Slowing Arctic Warming and Sea Ice Melt By Reducing Short-Lived Pollutants Pam Pearson Climate Policy Center-Europe of Clean Air-Cool Planet June 2008

Summary: background • Arctic warming at twice the rate of Earth as a whole. • This warming potentially poses the largest global climate “tipping point” problem, with the sea level rise from loss of the Greenland ice sheet mass. • Evidence suggests some of this warming and arctic snow and ice melting could be slowed relatively soon by reducing non-CO 2 emissions, to complement CO 2 strategies. • Next two years will be critical for key research and discussions to move this agenda forward. 2

September Sea Ice Extent 1978 -2007

Key Points • Recent science points to large influence of three short-lived pollutants (black carbon, methane, ozone) in accelerating Arctic warming; • Reducing these pollutants could slow rate of Arctic warming relatively quickly; delay springtime melt; possibly help avoid near-term climate tipping points • These pollutants all directly affect health • Still need to reduce CO 2! 4

Carbon dioxide Black carbon Tropospheric ozone Methane Calculated from Quinn, et. al. , ACP, 2008 Relative Arctic temperature impacts: CO 2 and Short-term forcers

Black carbon (soot) • Sources: unburned fuel (incomplete combustion), diesel engines and generators, wood and coal furnaces and stoves, field burning, industrial plants • Direct effect: darker ice more melting • Indirect effect: top of atmosphere warming • Likely responsible for at least 30 percent of the Arctic warming observed to date (Flanner, et. al. ) • Good news: short lifetime (days), so near-immediate effect from reductions 6

Deposited black carbon changes snow and ice reflectance (albedo) Without soot, rays reflected With soot, rays (and heat) absorbed NASA, Black Soot and Snow: A Warmer Combination, 2004 7

Sources of black carbon by source & location ~6500 Gg Affects atmospheric warming ~”only” 1500 Gg BUT: affects warming and Arctic snow melt= greater impact from reductions Source: Bond et al. , 2004 (updated to year 2000 data); GFEDv 2 (van der Werf, 2006)

Tropospheric ozone • Industrial and transport sources • Arctic is affected by: heat transport from lower latitudes, ozone transport from lower latitudes and in-situ ozone production. • Of greatest interest: ozone processes that closely coincide with spring melt. • Precursors include oxides of nitrogen, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and methane -- but reductions in carbon monoxide and methane most likely to result in greatest climate benefits. • Reducing peak ozone concentrations for air quality benefits alone will have little climate benefit. • Lifetime: days to weeks • Increased Arctic shipping will result in an increase in ozone precursor emissions 9

Potential surface ozone increase, by 2050 from shipping Potential black carbon increase, by 2050 from shipping Granier CATF/GISS Arctic workshop, January 7, 2007, NYC Increased shipping will bring more short-lived pollutants to the Arctic Note: These projections should be considered preliminary, but illustrative. 10

Methane • Fossil fuels, agricultural, solid waste • Mechanism similar to CO 2: warmer air is transported to the Arctic directly as a result of the greenhouse gas effect; but also by contributing to tropospheric ozone production. • Relatively short lifetime (8 -12 years) and potent warming effect (23 times more powerful than CO 2) make methane “lowhanging fruit” for slowing Arctic warming. 11

Mechanisms for Short-lived Climate Forcings Impacts Quinn, ACP, 2008 12

Role of Short-term forcers Globally? Carbon dioxide Tropospheric ozone Methane Ramanathan, 2008 Black carbon

Carbon dioxide Black carbon Tropospheric ozone Methane Calculated from Quinn, et. al. , ACP, 2008 Relative Arctic temperature impacts: CO 2 and Short-term forcers

Science Effort • CATF co-convened two workshops of over 50 polar air pollution scientists in January 2007 (with NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies) and November 2007 (with the Norwegian Institute of Air Research and International Global Atmospheric Chemistry). • Foundation-funded and government research ongoing, including looking at circumpolar black carbon deposition and speciation; potential warming role of winter Arctic haze; organic carbon measurements; purchase and deployment of soot photometer • Will be re-grouping with scientists in Fall 2008, perhaps in connection with the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project meeting in mid September, AMAP workshop. 15

“Oslo Process” Effort • November 2007 Oslo science/policy meeting organized under Chatham House Rules by CACP-CATF-NILU attended by Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U. S. , as well as NGOs • Oslo Group agreed to informally consult to develop a “North of 40 degrees” Initiative • Second “Chatham House” meeting May 8 -9 in Copenhagen with expanded Arctic and EEA participation • Outreach also to: IPCC (on reporting), CLRTAP Convention, Arctic Council (SAOs, AMSA, AMAP) 16

Arctic Council • • April SAO Presentation by CPC at Svolvær SAOs approved AMAP Workshop on Non-CO 2 Drivers of Climate Change (tent. Sept 15 -16, Norway): -- Review published science on non-CO 2 drivers of climate change in the Arctic -- Evaluate potential response of Arctic climate to regionally limited actions to reduce a specific non-CO 2 forcing -- Recommend research and development needed to fill science gaps or enhance mitigation techniques -- Suggest priorities for Arctic regional action (April 2009 Ministerial) to reduce non-CO 2 climate forcing (based on expected effect on a specific forcing and the level of effort need to achieve it) Attendance: Scientists, Local/indigenous, Engineers, and Policy

“Currently Supported by Science”: No-Regrets Measures 1. Reduce black carbon in northern hemisphere – emphasize direct sources. 2. Reduce northern hemisphere tropospheric ozone, including by targeting carbon monoxide and methane. 3. Especially important to minimize emissions of short-lived pollutants (BC, ozone) within the Arctic and near-Arctic. 4. Additional global methane reductions over and above current international commitments would have near-term benefits in the Arctic. 18

Current Arctic Nation Regulation • Black carbon: as fine particle (PM 2. 5), already covered in U. S. /Canada; EU PM 2. 5 emissions ceilings (NECs) emerging, health impacts only • Ozone: regulated for health and, in some cases, for crop impacts; peaks only • Methane: Kyoto gas and included in some domestic source-specific regulations.

1) Black carbon (BC) reduction strategy in the northern hemisphere • Could emphasize BC sources that result in deposition within the Arctic - particularly during winter and spring. • Initial opportunities for early action: – Expanded diesel retrofit and cleanup. – Reduced use of early spring and fall agricultural fire in northern latitudes. – Residential cook stove improvement. Coordinate with efforts currently underway, including the Partnership for Indoor Clean Air, the Shell Foundation Stove Projects, and the Millennium Project. – Targeting of other sources. • Better spatially accurate inventories are needed -- possible AMAP/CLRTAP/IPCC roles? 20

Example: BC Mitigation potential Known Arctic deposition Diesel engines * **24% Domestic biofuel 18% Domestic coal 6% Industry 10% Forest fires and field burning 42% Atmospheric warming Mitigation feasibility yes STRONG EXISTS POSSIBLE LITTLE STRONG-MOD EXISTS POSSIBLE LITTLE OPEN Q EXISTS POSSIBLE yes OPEN Q QUESTIONABLE * $30 -130/tonne CO 2 equiv ** $1 -30/tonne CO 2 equiv Bond, SPAC, Oslo, 2007

2) Undertake broad-based global methane reductions • Continued discussion of most plausible and lowest cost methane reductions. – Estimate how much of the mitigation potential is likely to be captured by current efforts, through 2030. – Identify promising opportunities for mitigation. – Consider mechanisms to expand methane reductions, including an expanded methane-to-markets program and targeted methane reductions from dedicated “climate and development” funds, Gothenburg Revision 22

3) Undertake Northern Hemisphere ozone reduction strategy: Target carbon monoxide and methane • Need strategies to reduce tropospheric ozone that benefit both climate and air quality. • Carbon monoxide sources: incomplete burning of natural gas, gasoline, kerosene, oil, propane, coal, or wood; forges, blast furnaces and coke ovens. • Use of catalytic converters and fuel additives can reduce CO emissions. 23

4) Minimize emissions of short-lived pollutants within the Arctic • Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA): Drs. James Corbett and Jamie Winebrake are providing an overview of emissions from ocean-going ships and the potential impacts of increased shipping in the Arctic for the AMSA report. • Also need to determine other sources of in-Arctic emissions, such as diesel generators, and develop a technical and political strategy for reductions. 24

Arctic Stabilization Short-lived Forcers Initiative? • Reductions in black carbon, ozone and methane over and above existing commitments for specific purpose of Arctic stabilization, in concert with CO 2 efforts • Addressing these substances either in existing venues, or as a coordinated initiative among interested governments

Many Possible Venues for Action • Convention on Long Range Transport of Air Pollutants/Gothenburg Revision Process • International Maritime Organization • IPCC (for reporting and gaining additional clarity as to sources of BC in particular) • Domestic legislation and regulation (EU NEC process, domestic legislation elsewhere) • Coordinated action of Arctic governments: new AMAP/Arctic Council process 26

Summary • Reductions in short-lived pollutants can have major, near-term impact to slow Arctic warming and melting, in addition to human health benefits. • Reductions in Arctic and near-Arctic nations have “extra punch” due to warming mechanisms of BC in particular. • Further global reductions, including in developing countries, may also be advisable, but Arctic nations can demonstrate means and seriousness by acting first.

For more information: Additional scientific presentations available at: www. catf. us/projects/climate/international_climate/