SLCP Benefits Toolkit A Modular Approach to Estimating
SLCP Benefits Toolkit: A Modular Approach to Estimating the Benefits of Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Emission Reductions June 16, 2015
Overview A. What We Know About the Benefits of Reducing Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) B. Toolkit Goals C. Description of Toolkit Components 1. Data Requirements 2. Outputs D. How the Toolkit Can be Applied E. Demonstration F. Next Steps G. Contacts Estimate change in emissions Implementation of SLCP measures Link emissions to air pollution concentrations Estimate benefits Health Climate Agriculture
Benefits of Reducing Black Carbon and Methane • • • A 2011 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment report identified 16 key measures to reduce black carbon (BC) and methane globally. The UNEP methane and BC measures are estimated to reduce annual air-pollution related deaths by 1 -5 million globally and avoid yield losses from 4 major crops of 21 -57 million ton globally each year. Health and other benefits vary by country, as illustrated below. Benefits of the methane and BC mitigation measures by country Climate Shindell et al. Science, 2012 Health Crops 3
Toolkit Goals Making the Business Case for Reducing SLCPs The Toolkit is Designed to Allow Countries To: • Characterize national and/or urban emissions • Explore alternative emission scenarios at urban and/or national scale • Calculate country-level health, agriculture and regional climate benefits • Compare results across alternative scenarios • Support national and city scale policies that reduce SLCPs Global Impact of UNEP Measures on Health, Crop Yields and Climate
Toolkit Components A. LEAP – SLCP – Emissions and Scenarios Tool 1. Based on Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP – Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system – developed over last 25 years 2. Simple structure – initially designed for developing countries/emerging economies B. Benefits Calculator – Simplified Benefits Estimation Tool 1. Estimates concentrations of particle pollution and ozone using a global air quality model (GEOS-Chem Adjoint) 2. Includes calculations to determine the impact on health, crops, and climate 3. Requires limited user inputs: emissions for 10 substances, population data and projections, crop yield, and optional input of health-response factors (some default data available) C. Ben. MAP-CE – Customized Health Benefits and Economic Valuation Tool 1. Uses health impact functions to relate changes in particle pollution and ozone concentrations with health outcomes 2. Estimates the economic value of health outcomes
Toolkit Components LEAP – SLCP • • • Allows users to build SLCP-relevant emissions models and implement hypothetical SLCP control strategies Calculates emissions for historical years • Based on default emission factors linked with activity data, which may be changed by users, if desired. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and other drivers can be used to develop emission scenarios Inputs • Sector and technologybased emission factors and activity data • Current and future population data • Control strategy scenarios Outputs • Historical, baseline and reference scenario emissions for all pollutants
Toolkit Components Benefits Calculator • Links the emissions from LEAP-SLCP or other source to a global air quality model to estimate concentrations of particle pollution and ozone • Estimates benefits using concentration response relationships for health, crops and climate • Results distinguish between impacts of foreign and domestic emissions Inputs • Baseline and scenario emissions data • Current and future population data • Crop yields Outputs • Country-level changes in premature death • Country-level changes in crop yield • Changes in regional radiative forcing and surface temperature
Overview of LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator #1 Create emission model in LEAP #2 Develop control strategies #4 Translate emissions to air quality changes #3 Estimate emission changes #5 Estimate Benefits Gridded Air Quality Data #6 Report results Charts and Graphs Summary tables
The Toolkit: Modeling Emissions, Air Quality Changes and Benefits Emissions from LEAP-SLCP or default emissions data Health, Climate and Agricultural Benefits Air Quality Concentrations of PM 2. 5 and ozone calculated using GEOS-Chem Adjoint - a global air quality model E. g. population weighted PM 2. 5 concentration used with response function for health to give health number of deaths
Toolkit Components Ben. MAP-CE • Calculates health impacts and monetized benefits using ozone and PM 2. 5 air quality data that the user specifies Inputs* • Modeled or monitored air quality data • Population counts • Baseline disease rates • Concentration-response relationships Outputs • Fine resolution changes in health outcomes (multiple spatial, time, and age endpoints) including premature mortality and asthma • Monetized benefits of changes in health outcomes *Ben. MAP-CE is pre-loaded with data from the Global Burden of Disease study for each country including: modeled air quality, population, baseline mortality and the integrated exposure-response function. Users may wish to substitute their own, more detailed, data.
Overview of Ben. MAP-CE #1 Select air pollution data or Modeled data Import your own data #2 Estimate number of people exposed or Number of people exposed Use default settings risk #3 Estimate health impacts and economic values Monitored data air pollution #4 Report results Maps Summary tables
Applications • • Countries just beginning can use the LEAP-SLCP tool to develop historical emission inventories, baseline and mitigation scenarios. Countries with existing emissions data can modify LEAPSLCP with their own data. All countries can use the Benefits Calculator to estimate national-level health, crop yield and climate outcomes of different emissions. Countries with emissions, air quality modeling or monitoring data can take advantage of the more refined health and economic benefit analytic capability available in the Ben. MAP-CE tool.
LEAP-SLCP Demo
Ben. MAP-CE Demo
Next Steps • LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator • • • Beta Testing Peer Review Planned Enhancements • Web based user interface • Add control cost data • Modeling for additional countries • Ben. MAP-CE • • • Incorporate 2013 Global Burden of Disease data Online user forum Training in Brazil, Chile and Thailand
Questions? Contacts • Stockholm Environment Institute • Johan Kuylenstierna, Harry Vallack, Charlie Heaps • Email: harry. vallack@sei-international. org • United States Environmental Protection Agency • Benefits Calculator: Amanda Curry Brown • Email: currybrown. amanda@epa. gov • Ben. MAP-CE: Neal Fann • Email: fann. neal@epa. gov • University of Colorado • Daven Henze • Email: daven. henze@colorado. edu
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