Size of Industry Size of Industry Size of

Size of Industry

Size of Industry

Size of Industry

Size of Industry

Size of Industry

Size of Industry l Cow numbers increased but are trending down again l Calf crop grew after May 2003 but is adjusting downward l Beef production has decreased from 2004/2005 levels

Beef and Cattle Exports

Beef and Cattle Exports

CBEF Beef Exports and Projections (Million $) Year Japan South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong China Mexico USA 2002 96. 12 59. 83 41. 53 2. 96 7. 10 289. 74 1, 628. 26 2003 42. 33 29. 48 19. 24 1. 67 1. 88 117. 77 1, 186. 37 2004 0 0 0 38. 20 0 353. 49 1, 474. 81 2005 0 0 0 76. 38 0 208. 26 1, 545. 99 2006 15. 54 0 0 56. 59 0 153. 33 1, 085. 04 2007 95. 42 11. 57 15. 72 90. 40 1. 23 259. 08 1, 146. 60 2008 132. 12 46. 30 20. 96 79. 33 14. 76 300. 99 1, 175. 72 2009 168. 82 78. 71 31. 44 66. 42 27. 06 346. 71 1, 201. 20 2010 205. 52 111. 12 41. 92 55. 35 39. 36 388. 62 1, 230. 32 2015 322. 96 148. 16 52. 40 73. 80 54. 12 441. 96 1, 274. 00

Beef Exports Country Japan S. Korea Taiwan H. K/Macau China S. E. Asia Mexico 2005 (tonnes) Canada USA 0 2, 307 0 2, 106 0 20, 368 0 440 52, 064 7, 764 0 0 17, 711 282, 215 2006 (tonnes) Canada USA 2, 117 13, 736 0 233 0 15, 336 0 701 40, 243 21, 409 3, 316 134 5, 599 371, 087

Beef and Cattle Exports

Beef and Cattle Exports l l l Beef exports to Macau and Hong Kong have replaced Japan in importance Beef exports to Mexico and U. S. remain strong Cattle exports to U. S. remain strong Loss of key markets such as South Korea means a loss of high value beef exports The OIE has designated Canada as “controlled risk” for BSE – meaning that all beef products from Canada are safe for trade

Beef Imports (tonnes) Year U. S. tonnes $’ 000 Australia tonnes $’ 000 New Zealand tonnes $’ 000 Other tonnes $’ 000 2002 81, 444 349, 701 96, 633 292, 472 55, 239 164, 372 67 235 2003 74, 003 352, 015 39, 944 129, 066 46, 107 139, 798 39, 442 99, 974 2004 15, 774 75, 089 8, 609 42, 376 30, 683 102, 325 24, 800 82, 195 2005 32, 728 163, 382 8, 403 34, 586 30, 257 103, 958 19, 344 66, 544 2006 68, 365 378, 640 10, 041 40, 336 26, 145 84, 874 6, 875 2007 82, 886 (Jan. Nov) 467, 499 10, 451 41, 308 23, 994 79, 042 21, 477 69, 088 24, 347

Access to Key Markets U. S. l l l U. S. re-opened to UTM beef and cattle on July 14, 2005 U. S. re-opened to cattle born after March 1, 1999 on November 19, 2007 U. S. re-opened to OTM beef on November 19, 2007 R-CALF continues to challenge in U. S. courts Next hearing is on February 19, 2008

Access to Key Markets Mexico l Mexico is open to UTM beef l Negotiations continue to open Mexico to live cattle and OTM beef l Mexico has followed U. S. lead in past and should open to live cattle and OTM beef in 2008

Access to Key Markets Japan l l l Japan is open top boneless beef from animals under twenty months of age This product has proven difficult to supply Japanese market demands high value cuts and is highly profitable Australia has captured a very large share of the Japanese market Negotiations continue to expand access but progress is slow

Access to Key Markets South Korea l l l South Korea continues to ban all beef from Canada South Korea was an important and profitable market before BSE Negotiations with Korea are very difficult U. S. has access for boneless UTM but it isn’t “real” Some indications U. S. will get all UTM in 2008 – Canada as well? Australia has captured a large share of the South Korean market

Access to Key Markets Taiwan is open to boneless UTM from Canada l Canada requested full access for all beef in September 2007 l Taiwan has requested additional information and time to complete a risk assessment l Taiwan expects the process to go more quickly than it did for boneless UTM l

Access to Key Markets China l China is closed to all cattle and beef products from Canada l Canada continues to press for full access but China rejects this l Negotiations are very slow and difficult l China has a fast-growing middle class and has great potential as an export market

Access to Key Markets Russia l Canada has access for live cattle and shipments have been made l Canada has access for boneless UTM but Russia has approved only half of the plants Canada submitted l Russia has not issued permits to allow meat shipments from Canada l U. S. has access for all UTM

Access to Key Markets Macau and Hong Kong l Canada has access for all UTM and OTM beef in Macau l Canada has access for boneless UTM in Hong Kong l Macau and Hong Kong are markets of growing importance and in 2006 were Canada’s 3 rd and 4 th most valuable export markets

Access to Key Markets Other markets l Canada has access for all beef in Cuba, Barbados and Bermuda l Canada has boneless UTM access in many countries in the Caribbean and Central and South America l Canada has access to the EU for all beef but is limited to a quota for hormone-free beef l However, this is a lucrative market that some producers may wish to pursue

Access to Key Markets l Regaining access to key Asian markets continues to be challenging l Many countries are refusing to follow OIE guidelines in granting access l Alberta government continues to press the Federal government to aggressively negotiate for restored access

Access to Key Markets Alberta government is working with industry (CCA, ABP, CBEF) to restore market access l Minister Groeneveld advocated for further market openings on his mission to Asia in October 2007 l Minister Groeneveld advocated for increased access to Mexico during his meeting with Mexico’s Ambassador to the U. S. in January 2008 l Alberta government is closely monitoring RCALF’s continuing legal challenges l l Work with Federal government and industry on legal submissions

WTO Negotiations l Negotiations for a new WTO agreement are ongoing l Agriculture is focused on 3 areas: Agreement to eliminate export subsidies (by 2013? ); world prices should increase l Domestic support (agreement on substantial reductions) l Market access (negotiations continue) l

WTO Negotiations l An ambitious agreement has substantial potential for beef exports l A recent study by the George Morris Centre concluded that if tariff reductions “on the table” were applied to beef, exports would grow by 174, 000 tonnes and $994 million l Alberta’s share would be $646 million

WTO Negotiations Alberta continues to press the Federal government to negotiate for an ambitious deal at the WTO l A growing middle class in developing countries, such as China, will lead to increased global demand for beef l It is imperative that Alberta’s beef industry gains increased access to these growing markets l