SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME 6 1 Sustainable Energy Systems
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6. 1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems] Green Accounting: Aggregation, Regional Distribution And Transferability of Monetary Values Milan Ščasný Charles University Environment Center, Prague CZ in collaboration with Jan Melichar, Miroslav Havránek, Vojtěch Máca (CUEC) Philipp Preiss (UStutt) Alistair Hunt (Uni. Bath) Ståle Navrud (SWECO)
Motivation: Indicators t (2005) EU 27 BE CZ DE UK PT ROM SE SK NH 3 4 408 NMVOC 76 104 NOX 2 095 819 PMco 91 306 PM 2. 5 90 898 SO 2 4 693 323 Cd 13. 4 As 34. 6 Ni 369. 6 Pb 115. 7 Hg 34. 6 CO 2, 1000 t 1 353 977 GHG, 1000 t 1 572 373 48 902 34 839 510 573 29 393 0 6 175 89 772 1 310 2 560 128 055 2 173 6 668 242 113 1 021 8 090 219 834 702 4 061 372 555 4 544 5 413 384 396 4 968 60 686 1 143 1 376 121 918 0 7 058 103 040 16 897 0 541 901 559 2 892 12 412 972 3 177 8 142 0 1 806 14 998 249 455 32 452 0. 1 0. 3 3. 5 1. 2 0. 2 1. 2 2. 5 11. 7 10. 4 1. 5 0. 3 2. 4 13. 1 5. 9 2. 2 0. 9 0. 6 5. 1 10. 0 2. 3 1. 0 1. 6 37. 4 5. 0 1. 5 0. 4 0. 6 14. 5 0. 9 2. 0 0. 1 0. 2 4. 0 2. 3 0. 2 0. 5 0. 0 1. 0 0. 3 24 624 29 939 55 505 58 604 325 398 365 958 173 071 211 065 21 174 23 881 46 269 46 431 8 436 11 676 8 219 11 310 classical and GHG pollutants by Eurostat, 1 A_1 A Public Electricity and Heat Production for 2005 micro pollutants by EMEP 2005, Public power
Generalisation Method and Tool {as presented earlier by Philipp Preiss, Uni Stuttgart} Impact Pathway Analysis updated Extern. E 2008 update (CRF/ERF/DRF, monetary values, dispersion and fate modelling) average generic values per pollutant and source country parametrization Eulerian dispersion and chemical transformation model based on SR matrices (47 for the EU 27, 14 for the rest of Europe, 5 for others) cumulative concentration/deposition in each of 50 x 50 km 2 EMEP grid cells all impacts valued and aggregated software tool update (Eco. Sense. Web, WATSON & OMEGA) Damage due to Climate Change (RS 1 b NEEDS & CASES) MSC of Carbon by IAM FUND (Tol & Anthoff), MAC based on literature review (Kiuik et al. )
Generalisation Why and What For? Easy-get values of external costs without running the Eco. Sense model Uses Impact Assessment CBA RIA (S)EIA Indicators Genuine Savings Macro Aggregates Eco Rucksacks
Generalisation & Aggregation Damage per ton of pollutant Human health Biodiversity Crops Materials SO 2 € € €- € Σ€ NOx € € Σ€ PM 2. 5 -10 € Σ€ NH 3 € € €- Σ€ NMVOC € €- € Σ€ HMs, VOC € the recipient country j Σ€ i, j – imp – Total Σ€ GHGs Total Climate change Σ€ Σ€ Σ€ the source and the recipient country resp. impact category (e. g. LLY, cough, cancer, …) € Σ€ Σ€ Σ€
Damage: Classical Pollutants (billion € 2000 in each Member State)
Damage: Classical Pollutants (billion € 2000 in each Member State)
Climate Change Marginal External Costs, Euro(2000) per t CO 2 Mixture of positive methods (IAM, MAC estimations) and normative approaches (one’s choice on values of key parameters, i. e. discount rate and equity weighting) (Tol & Anthoff 2007; NEEDS RS 1 b WP 6)
Climate Change Marginal External Costs, Euro(2000) per t CO 2 Mixture of positive methods (IAM, MAC estimations) and normative approaches (one’s choice on values of key parameters, i. e. discount rate and equity weighting) § option 1 6€ (model FUND with 1% PRTR, without Eq. W. , 1% trim mean) § option 2 § option 3 § option 4 16 € 21 € 40 €
Damage: Climate Change (billion € 2000 in each Member State)
External Costs> power sector % GDP(nominal Euro) in each Member State
External Costs> power sector % GDP (by purchasing power parity) in MS
External Costs> € 2000 per capita in each MS power sector
External Costs> power sector % GDP (nominal Euros) per EU-region
External Costs> power sector % GDP (by purchasing power) per EU-region
External Costs> power sector € 2000 per capita in region
External Costs> EU power sector 68 billion € p. a. 140 € per capita 0. 7% GDP
External Costs> EU whole economy 311 billion € p. a. 633 € per capita 3. 1% GDP
(Dis-)Aggregation of Health Effects of CZ power sector –
World Bank’s Genuine Savings GS = [GNP – C – K] – n(R–g) – (Pemi – Passim) + edu Net National Savings + education expenditures - energy and mineral depletion - net forest depletion - CO 2 damage - PM 10 damage - damage due to other classical pollutants Caveat: Adjusted Net Savings is one-sided indicator, i. e. only the negative value indicates weak non sustainability
Adjusted (Genuine) Net Savings by World Bank, in % GNI
Adjusted (Genuine) Net Savings by World Bank and NEEDS, in % GNI
Adjusted Net Savings Emission abatement in Hungary 2000 -06, % GNI
Aggregation Regional Disaggregation Transferability of Values Among the Regions
(Dis-)Aggregation Human health Biodiversity Crops Materials SO 2 € € €- € Σ€ NOx € € Σ€ PM 2. 5 -10 € Σ€ NH 3 € € €- Σ€ NMVOC € €- € Σ€ HMs, VOC € the recipient country j Σ€ Total Σ€ GHGs Total Climate change Σ€ Σ€ i – the source/emitting country (who deliver damage) j – the recipient country (who bore damage) imp – impact category (e. g. LLY, cough, cancer, …)
(Dis-)Aggregation Human health Biodi vers Crop Materials SO 2 € € €- € Σ€ NOx € € Human€ Biodi€ Σ€ Mate- CZ PM 2. 5 -10 DE € SO € 2 € NH 3 NO € x € NMVOC PM € 2. 5 €- HMs… PM € 2. 5 -10 GHGs Sum health € €PO € € L€ vers CC Crop € €- SV K Sum rials CC Sum €Σ € UK Σ€ € Human € Biodi €Σ € health vers Crop MateΣ rials CC € SO 2 Sum Σ€ Σ€ NOx Σ€ Σ€ PM 2. 5 AT – Σ€ Materials Σ€ CC PM 2. 5 -10 Sum NH 3 €Σ€ Σ€ NMVOC €Σ€ Σ€ HMs… Σ€ Σ€ GHGs Σ€ SumΣ € HMs… € 3 NH € € €- Σ€ Σ€ GHGs NMVOC € €- € € Σ€ Σ€ Sum HMs… Σ€ Σ€ Σ€ GHGs Sum Σ€ € € NOx Σ€ Σ€ Biodi vers SO 2 SO €- Biodi € Σ € € 2 € € €- € € Human Σ€ health NO x € € vers € ΣCrop NMVOC € €€ Σ€ Σ€ Σ€ PM 2. 5 € SO 2 € € €HMs… € Σ€ PM 2. 5 -10 €x NO € GHGs €€ Σ €€ NH 3 € 2. 5 € € €PM Sum Σ€ Σ€ Σ€ NMVOC € 2. 5 -10 €- € € PM NH 3 Human health Σ€ Σ€ Human PM 2. 5 health Biodi vers PM 2. 5 -10 € € NH 3 € € NMVOC € HMs… € GHGs € € Sum € €- € € Crop € € €€ Materials € €- € Σ€ Σ€
(Dis-)Aggregation damage by country and impact cough HA YOLLs country_1 {X 1 * €}cough {X 1 * €}ha country_2 {X 2 * €}cough country_3 …. Sum {X 1 * €}yoll … Σ €country 1 {X 2 * €}ha {X 2 * €}yoll … Σ €country 2 {X 3 * €}cough {X 3 * €}ha {X 3 * €}yoll … Σ €country 3 country_4 {X 4 * €}cough {X 4 * €}ha {X 4 * €}yoll … Σ €country 4 country_5 {X 5 * €}cough {X 5 * €}ha {X 5 * €}yoll … Σ €country 5 … … … {Xn * €}cough {Xn * €}ha {Xn * €}yoll … Σ €countryn Σ €cough Σ €ha Σ €yoll … Σ€ … country_n Sum i – the source/emitting country (who deliver damage) j – the recipient country (who bore damage) imp – impact category (e. g. LLY, cough, cancer, …)
(Dis-)Aggregation damage by country and impact cough HA YOLLs country_1 {X 1 * €EU}cough {X 1 * €EU}ha country_2 {X 2 * €EU}cough country_3 …. Sum {X 1 * €EU}yoll … Σ €country 1 {X 2 * €EU}ha {X 2 * €EU}yoll … Σ €country 2 {X 3 * €EU}cough {X 3 * €EU}ha {X 3 * €EU}yoll … Σ €country 3 country_4 {X 4 * €EU}cough {X 4 * €EU}ha {X 4 * €EU}yoll … Σ €country 4 country_5 {X 5 * €EU}cough {X 5 * €EU}ha {X 5 * €EU}yoll … Σ €country 5 … … … {Xn * €EU}cough {Xn * €EU}ha {Xn * €EU}yoll … Σ €countryn Σ €cough Σ €ha Σ €yoll … Σ€ … country_n Sum i – the source/emitting country (who deliver damage) j – the recipient country (who bore damage) imp – impact category (e. g. LLY, cough, cancer, …)
Regional Distribution of Damage Recipient country of damage due to classical pollutants born by the Czech power sector
(Dis-)Aggregation < domestic-wide perspective > e. g. monetize impacts by CZ values cough HA YOLLs country_1 {X 1 * €CZ}cough {X 1 * €CZ}ha country_2 {X 2 * €CZ}cough country_3 …. Sum {X 1 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €country 1 {X 2 * €CZ}ha {X 2 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €country 2 {X 3 * €CZ}cough {X 3 * €CZ}ha {X 3 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €country 3 country_4 {X 4 * €CZ}cough {X 4 * €CZ}ha {X 4 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €country 4 country_5 {X 5 * €CZ}cough {X 5 * €CZ}ha {X 5 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €country 5 … … … {Xn * €CZ}cough {Xn * €CZ}ha {Xn * €CZ}yoll … Σ €countryn Σ €cough Σ €ha Σ €yoll … Σ€ … country_n Sum
(Dis-)Aggregation < domestic & selfish perspective > cough HA YOLLs {X 1 * €CZ}cough {X 1 * €CZ}ha country_2 0 country_3 …. Sum {X 1 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €CZ 0 0 … 0 country_4 0 0 0 … 0 country_5 0 0 0 … 0 country_n 0 0 0 … 0 Σ €Czcough Σ €Czha Σ €Czyoll … Σ €CZ country_CZ Sum
(Dis-)Aggregation < country-specific values > cough HA YOLLs country_CZ {X 1 * €CZ}cough {X 1 * €CZ}ha country_DE {X 2 * €DE}cough country_PL …. Sum {X 1 * €CZ}yoll … Σ €CZ {X 2 * €DE}ha {X 2 * €DE}yoll … Σ €DE {X 3 * €PL}cough {X 3 * €PL}ha {X 3 * €PL}yoll … Σ €PL country_BG {X 4 * €BG}cough {X 4 * €BG}ha {X 4 * €BG}yoll … Σ €BG country_UK {X 5 * €K}cough {X 5 * €K}ha {X 5 * €K}yoll … Σ €UK … … … country_n Sum {Xn * €n}cough {Xn * €n}ha {Xn * €n}yoll … Σ €n Σ €cough Σ €ha Σ €yoll … Σ€
(Dis-)Aggregation < country-specific values > Extern. E state-of-the-art: generic default value for each country monetary values based on original study in each country expensive time-intensive literature review within NEEDS productivity loss based on GDP per employee for each country medical treatment costs in CZ, POL, TUN, and literature review welfare loss based on lit review
(Dis-)Aggregation < country-specific values > naïve transfer --- one generic value, i. e. the EU-15 average benefit transfer techniques 1. adjust the values by purchasing power medical costs index for COI (WHO stata; as Pattanayak et al. 2002) PPP-for-expenditures adjustment of WTP country specific loss of productivity, i. e. GDPi/Li 2. adjust the values by relative changes in wealth
(Dis-)Aggregation < values adjustments > Damage due to health effects related to classical pollutants released by the CZ power sector
(Dis-)Aggregation < country-specific values > regional distribution
Concluding Remarks National Accounting vs. Impact Pathway damage affects individuals outside the country in very long time horizons considered future prices used (MSC of carbon) marketed goods (crops, materials, medical costs), nonmarketed goods (disutility, disamenity) and potential income (loss in productivity and earnings) Production vs. Consumption related damage Social planner perspective and ethics equity weighting vs. country-specific values country-specific preferences
Conclusions NEEDS documents useful uses of the external costs calculations in green accounting and derivation of SD indicators provides updated and geographically extended Eco. Sense. Web tool that allows to disaggregate the impacts per country and impact using the country-specific monetary values is possible, but maybe problematic ethically opens topics for further research and debate transferability issues & monetary valuation
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