Six Unique Customer Types Segmentation by Summer Load
Six Unique Customer Types: Segmentation by Summer Load Shape Jeff Zethmayr, Director of Research David Kolata, Executive Director Citizens Utility Board
Usage Types and Demographic Analysis • Matching Summer Usage Patterns to Demographic Profiles using Census Data – Anonymous interval data grouped according to average summer weekday – Customers matched with block group level census data: age, median income, educational attainment, household makeup, age/size/density of units • Flatter load shapes associated with lower income areas, urban areas • Peakier load shapes associated with higher income and suburban, exurban, and rural areas
Data and Methods Data Sets • Daily interval volume readings for 2. 5 m anonymous residential customers, with geographic identifiers • Block group data from American Community Survey 2017 Analysis • Individual load shapes calculated as their average summer weekday usage, normalized to their maximum load • Grouped together using k-means clustering algorithm, which minimizes the statistical difference between observations’ data points • Logistic regression using matched census data determines likelihood of a cluster member to live in an area with particular attributes
Cluster Load Shapes • Clusters 1, 3, and 5 have higher, peakier usage, with slight timing differences • Clusters 2, 4, and 6 have lower, flatter usage
Cluster Distribution • Clusters 2, 4, and 6 predominant in Chicago • Clusters 1, 3, and 5 in surrounding suburbs, exurbs • Cluster 2 areas found in smaller city centers
Cluster Distribution: Chicago • West and South sides predominantly Cluster 2 • Cluster 1 common in closer suburbs, Near North side • Far North side more diverse
Cluster 1 Profile • Wide, mid-evening, 1 k. W peak • “Base” cluster • 706 thousand customers • 380 k Com. Ed, 327 k AIC • Average demographics in Com. Ed • Load shape closest to overall Com. Ed
Cluster 2 Profile • Flattest load shape • 422 thousand customers • 270 k Com. Ed, 151 k AIC • Live in Chicago, or urban center (2. 5 x more likely than average) • Lower income (2. 5 x more likely to qualify for LIHEAP) • High Education (1. 3 x grad school, 1. 2 x Ph. D) • Likely two nonexclusive groups: urban young professionals and low-income communities
Cluster 3 Profile • Late afternoon, 1 k. W peak • 493 thousand customers • 277 k Com. Ed, 216 k AIC • Mostly exurban/rural • Larger homes (1. 5 x more than 5 rooms) • Older (2 x over 56) • Less educated • Age and afternoon usage suggest sub/exurban retirees
Cluster 4 Profile • Low volume, with lateevening. 5 k. Wh peak • 283 thousand customers • 197 k Com. Ed, 86 k AIC • Mostly in Chicago • Low-income (2. 6 x <$50 k, 1. 8 k LIHEAP) • Likely to have no HS degree (1. 3 x) or have advanced degree (2 x Grad, 1. 3 x Ph. D) • Youngest cluster (1. 9 x <33)
Cluster 5 Profile • Evening, ramping. 95 k. W peak • 452 thousand customers • 257 k Com. Ed, 194 k AIC • Primarily exurban • Educated (1. 3 x BA) • Likely middle class, medium sized homes (1. 2 x 4 -5 rooms, 0. 7 x >$150 k)
Cluster 6 Profile • Lowest volume, with wide evening peak • 212 thousand customers • 160 k Com. Ed, 53 k AIC • Highly likely to use space heat (2. 6 x) • Relatively distributed throughout service territory • High education (1. 4 x Grad) • Least likely to be in Chicago (0. 4 x)
Conclusions • Peakier summer usage – with higher grid savings potential – in suburbs and higherincome areas • Flatter load shapes in low-income areas suggest common flat, volumetric rate designs may result in overpayment from these communities • Importance of open data access in more jurisdictions
Further Research Cluster Research • More investigation into rural areas • Test rate design bill effects, quantify crosssubsidization Next Projects • Local weather effect on usage patterns – projecting system costs of climate change • Marginal cost of service study
Next Steps • We want your input – what questions need to be asked? • Data access – how can we help? bigenergydata. info jzethmayr@citizensutilityboard. org dkolata@citizensutilityboard. org
- Slides: 15