Situation Appraisal Assessing and clarifying the current situation

Situation Appraisal Assessing and clarifying the current situation What's going on? • signal a turning point for the influence of senior congressional appropriators, • "You're not going to get two bites at the apple anymore, " • Gates proposals scale back or eliminate spending programs for costly weapons systems

Pentagon’s priorities “Gates 2. 0” • Missile Defense would be pared • new bomber would be deferred • F-22 fighter, for less capable but cheaper stuff, like the F-35 joint-strike fighter • New emphasis on counter-insurgency • 62% increase in unmanned drones • Special forces, the tip of the spear in fighting terrorists (and training allies), will also get a boost in numbers.

Problem Analysis Identifying problems and their causes Why did this happen? • Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader U. S. war on terrorism. • Gates, backed by the White House and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi • Signal big changes in the defense procurement process,

Decision Analysis Generating various alternatives and selecting the optimal one Which course of action should we take? • Gates proposals scale back or eliminate spending programs for costly weapons systems, while placing greater emphasis on irregular warfare and care for wounded troops and their families.

Possible Futures Opportunity Analysis/ Problems • Smart Power – Talk to Enemies • Language, Culture – Use Economic Leverage • Alternate Crops – Leverage Dollars • Buy Intelligence, Leadership, Education

Identifying potential problems and opportunities to be addressed in the future What lies ahead? More Smart Power ? • Unmanned Aircraft - How To Exploit – Hot Pursuit – Intel Gathering – Support Complex Objectives – Timeliness, Responsiveness

Draw Backs of New Priorities • Weaknesses – Politically Driven • Lots of Pork - Base Redeployment Plan • Int’l Scale - 700 Bases to Examine • Complicated - Change to Irregular Warfare • Short Term - Expensive to Change • Political Will Not There

Defense Budget Analysis

Discussion Possible Futures Probable Futures "Political, Economic, Social, and Technological analysis. ” SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats),