SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute COST A

SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

I Am Siemon Wezeman Senior Researcher/Project Leader Arms Transfers Project +46 -08 -6559739 or +46 -08 -6559700 swezeman@sipri. org www. sipri. org COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

SALW & The Initiation Of Armed Conflict COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Parameters • Violent People get hurt • Armed People use real weapons • Organized Actors are part of a fairly defined group with goals • Politically motivated The goals are political And it is called WAR COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Another Parameter • In Inter-State (international) conflict possession of loads of weapons is important sometimes even the spark that starts war • These are large weapons. SALW availability does not play any role Parameter • Limited to Intra-State (internal) war COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Question What is the relation between SALW availability in a country and the start of war? Which SALW? • Civilian (legal and illegal) • Government COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Question Classical COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Question Again • Do I need a heap of weapons before starting the war? • If so, how big does this heap need to be before I can start the war? COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

SALW Control Implications • If SALW are needed to start the war and if we could determine were the point between ‘safe’ and ‘unsafe’ levels of SALW lies we have an early-warning system COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Thermometer of Conflict • • No conflict Verbal/non-disruptive conflict Verbal/opposition/disruptive conflict Non-violent conflict (strikes) Non-lethal violence (riots) Low-level lethal violence (deaths) Planned one-sided deathly violence Reactive violence - war COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008 XXX XXX

Heap of SALW • • • None Some More Many Too Many XXX XXX XXX COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

What Did We Do? • Conflict Dynamics - mentioning of end of conflict (embargoes) & re-ignition of conflict but actually very little on Initiation of Armed Conflict Only oblique references Lower prices for Kalashnikovs linked to outbreak of war - but does that mean war breaks out despite a lack of demand or is demand lacking because everyone has weapons Arms are fuel, nor starter of war COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

What Should We Do? • Refining link between availability of SALW and violence - but mentioned homicide and suicide, not war COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

The Evidence • Sweden, Finland, Switzerland are awash with weapons but are all boringly peaceful • Nepal, West Africa had virtually no civilian SALW and exploded COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Models of War Initiation • War starting as spontaneous show of dissatisfaction getting out of hand; no serious SALW in hands of rebels (Nepal, Tibet) • War starting as one-sided violence by government (always equipped with SALW) against unarmed ‘rebels’; including re-asserting state control • War starting as organized action by rebels with SALW holdings (Communist strategy); rebellion organized from outside (Contras) • Combination - war breaks out spontaneously but is taken over by organized groups with or without SALW holdings COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Answer? • We still do not know too much about why conflicts become war. • Doubtful is we ever will know. • Case studies remain studies of happenings in a particular place with one-off actors in a time-unique culture and context COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

Conclusions* • SALW availability to civilians facilitates initiation • No general predictable ‘too many’ level of SALW • SALW with civilians are not an absolute need to start war • SALW are always involved in the start of war mostly in the hands of governments * Or rather ‘discussion points’ COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

So What is in it for Us*? • Finger on the local pulse - for every locale (region; country; ‘province’) on SALW availability, conflict and views on violence and use of weapons • Peace-building • Responsible selling and buying * ‘us’ as in ‘everyone’ COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008

The End (applause) COST A 25 Final Conference 18/03/2008