Simulation Meaning Types The Monte Carlo Methodology Simulation

Simulation • Meaning • Types • The Monte Carlo Methodology

Simulation Meaning • To assume the appearances or characteristics of reality • A descriptive technique that enables a decision maker to evaluate the behaviour of a model under various conditions.

Types of Simulation • Five types. They are i. Monte carlo ii. Visual simulation iii. Business games iv. Corporate planning v. System dynamics

Monte carlo • Probabilistic simulation technique used when a process has a random or chance component. • • Find Simulated demand for 10 weeks Weekly demand Probability 2000 . 12 3000 . 23 4000 . 48 5000. 17 Get cumulative probability then assign representative range number generate random number and compute the result Weekly demand probability Cumulative Probability Representative numbers(range) 2000 . 12 01 -12 3000 . 23 . 35 13 -35 4000 . 48 . 83 36 -83 5000 . 17 1. 00 84 -00

Monte carlo Wkly demand probability Cumulative Probability Representa numbers(r 2000 . 12 01 -12 3000 . 23 . 35 13 -35 4000 . 48 . 83 36 -83 5000 . 17 1. 00 Simulated demand Week no RN 1 32 3000 2 08 2000 3 46 4000 4 92 5000 5 69 4000 6 71 4000 7 29 3000 8 46 4000 9 80 4000 84 -00

Simulate break down for 10 day period No of brkdown probability Cumulative Probability 0 . 1 No of breakdown Probability 0 . 1 1 . 3 . 4 1 3 2 . 25 . 65 2 . 25 3 . 2 . 85 3 . 2 4 . 1 . 95 4 . 1 5 . 05 1. 00 5 . 05 Week no RN Simulated brkdown 1 32 2 08 2000 3 46 4000 4 92 5000 5 69 4000 6 71 4000 7 29 3000 8 46 4000 9 80 4000

Quiz 1 - Time 15 minutes i. iii. iv. v. viii. ix. x. xiii. xiv. xv. Project mgt mainly developed by----PERT and CPM Stand for…… CPM is --- --Write short note on PERT What do expediting activates require? What is slope? Write the steps in forecasting. What is qualitative forecasting? Write short note on historical analogy. In panel consensus the idea is what? What is α in forecasting? The past data and future projections are assumed to fall about a --- --What is causal relationship forecasting? Write the types of forecasting What is an event?