Simulation Introduction Deterministic vs Stochastic Models Risk Analysis

Simulation - Introduction • Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models • Risk Analysis • Random Variables • Best Case/Worst Case Analysis • What-If Analysis • Simulation HMP 654 -186 -

Simulation - Introduction Deterministic Inputs Process Output Stochastic Inputs HMP 654 -187 -

Simulation - Random Variables HMP 654 -188 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example Case Problem (R) p. 517 HMP 654 -189 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -190 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -191 -

Simulation - @Risk Open @Risk file Save @Risk file Change @Risk settings Display inputs by outputs table Add selected cells as @Risk outputs Show main @Risk window Run Simulation HMP 654 -192 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -193 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -194 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -195 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -196 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -197 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -198 -

Simulation - A Corporate Health Insurance Example HMP 654 -199 -

Simulation Spreadsheet Models • Develop the model equations and enter them into a spreadsheet • Identify input variables that are uncertain • Assign a probability distribution to each uncertain input variable • Run the model HMP 654 -200 -

Risk Simulation - Applications A Capital Budgeting Example HMP 654 -201 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -202 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -203 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -204 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -205 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -206 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -207 -

Risk Simulation - Applications Sensitivity Analysis HMP 654 -208 -

Risk Simulation - Applications Scenario Analysis HMP 654 -209 -

Risk Simulation - Applications Correlated Inputs HMP 654 -210 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -211 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -212 -

Risk Simulation - Applications HMP 654 -213 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example Case Problem - (R) p. 539 HMP 654 -214 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -215 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -216 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -217 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -218 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -219 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -220 -

Simulation An Inventory Control Example HMP 654 -221 -