Simons Model of Decision Making 1 Intelligence Is

Simon’s Model of Decision Making: 1. Intelligence • Is there a Problem ? ? 2. Design 3. Choice • Should I get dressed today ? ? • What Alternatives Are there ? ? • Should I wear Black Socks? Blue Socks? Red Socks? No Socks? ? 1916 - 2001 • OK – The Red Socks! Extensions 4. Implementation 5. Review • Put on the socks already! • How do they Look? Was it a good choice?

But what steps do actually we take when making a decision? Simon’s Model corresponds to the Scientific Approach, which indicates the specific tasks needed AND also corresponds to the Systems Development Life Cyle (SDLC): Simon Intelligence Design Choice Implementation Review System’s Approach Define Problem Develop Alternatives Select Solution Design Solution Implement Solution SDLC System Investigation System Analysis System Design Implementation Maintenance

This first step is called Brainstorming: • focus on a specific problem • deliberately come up with as many unusual solutions as possible and push the ideas as far as possible. • Brainstormers should not only come up with new ideas in a brainstorming session, but should also 'spark off' from associations with other people's ideas and develop other peoples ideas. • Ideas MUST NOT be criticized or evaluated during the brainstorming session. • Criticism introduces an element of risk for a group member in putting forward an idea. • Criticism stifles creativity and cripples the free running nature of a good brainstorming session

Brainstorming may be individual or done in groups • Individual brainstorming tends to produce a wider range of ideas, but tends not to develop the ideas as effectively, as individuals run up against problems they can’t solve. • Group brainstorming develops ideas more deeply and effectively since another person's creativity and experience can be used to break ‘creative blocks’. • Group brainstorming tends to produce fewer ideas (as time is spent developing ideas in depth) and can lead to the suppression of creative but quiet people by loud and uncreative ones. • Individual and group brainstorming can be mixed, perhaps by defining a problem, and then letting team members initially come up with a wide range of possibly shallow solutions which can then be enhanced and developed by group brainstorming.

So now that we have decided on all options, we can choose one, right ? ? ? It wouldn’t make much sense to choose one without analyzing each of them. ? ? ? HOW ? ? ? That is NOT so easy. There are four basic models of Decision making: • The Rational Model • The Political Model • The Process Model • The Garbage Can Model Which one to use depends on what you are trying to achieve

The Rational Model: • based upon an economic view of decision making. • It is grounded on goals/objectives, alternatives, consequences and optimality. • assumes that complete information regarding the decision to be made is available and one correct conception of a problem, or decision to be made can be determined. • assumes that the decision-makers consistently assess the advantages and disadvantages of any alternatives with goals and objectives in mind. • assumes that the decision-makers then evaluate the consequences of selecting or not selecting each alternative. • assumes that the alternative that provides the maximum utility (i. e. , the optimal choice) will be selected. ? ? ? Isn’t this how all decisions are made ? ? ? Not Really

The Political Model: • considers the preconceived notions that decisionmakers bring to the table in the decision process. • the individuals involved do not accomplish the decision task through rational choice in regard to objectives. • The decision makers are motivated by and act on their own needs and perceptions. • involves a cycle of bargaining among the decision makers in order for each one to try to get his or her perspective to be the one of choice. • More specifically, this process involves each decision-maker trying to sway powerful people within the situation to adopt his or her viewpoint and influence the remaining decision-makers ? ? ? Who would ever use that ? ? ? Ever heard of the US Congress?

The Process Model: • decisions are made based upon standard operating procedures, or pre-established guidelines within the organization. • the organization of past, present, and future events, as well as conformity, are integral parts to this model because they can be used as a consistent foundation for decision making. • Conformity is an integral part of the process model since it is the means by which doubt, or incertitude is dealt with during the decision task. • If decision makers are uncertain as to the potential effectiveness or the results of a decision, they conform to the pre-established standard. ? ? ? Where would this be used ? ? ? Ever heard of unions? ? Civil Service ? ? Government Agencies ? ?

The Garbage Can Model: • Used for judgment tasks: participant involvement participants fluctuates in the amount of time and effort given, & choices are inconsistent and not well defined • an opportunity to make a decision is described as a garbage can into which many types of problems and solutions are dropped independently of each other as these problems and solutions are generated. • The problems, solutions and decision makers are not necessarily related to each other. • The components are the combination of options available at a given time, the combination of problems, the combination of solutions needing problems, and the external demands on the decision makers ? ? ? How would this work ? ? ? Ever see what goes on here in the college at the end of the year if departments have excess funds to spend (or lose them if they don’t)?

? ? Are there any Disadvantages ? ? Of Course: • Group members generally have many biases (REMEMBER: Not everyone is using the Rational Model) • Groupthink (buy-in by group members without thinking) can lead to bad decisions. • There may be many alternatives to consider • There are often several conflicting objectives The DOD’s Decision Room • The result of a business decision usually materializes in the future. No one is a perfect predictor of the future, especially in the long run. • Most (if not all) decisions involve risk. Different people have different attitudes toward risk. • There may not be sufficient information to make an intelligent decision. • There may be TOO MUCH information (information Overload). • Gathering information and analyzing the problem takes time and is expensive. It is difficult to determine when to stop this and make a decision.