SHOUT Mission Concepts Proposed Mission Plans 2014 Collaboration

SHOUT Mission Concepts

Proposed Mission Plans • 2014 – Collaboration with NASA HS 3 – August 26 to September 29, NASA Wallops – Up to 15 total flights – NOAA input to mission design • 2015 – SHOUT led Mission – – – September – November, NASA Armstrong Tropical cyclones and high impact weather targets Single deployment location adds targeting flexibility Possibility for multiple aircraft to be explored 10 -16 potential flights • 2016 – SHOUT led Mission – September – November, NASA Armstrong – May be influenced by NASA EV-2 S results

HS 3 2014 • 5 th week in place on NASA schedule • Agreements drafted with both NASA Goddard and Armstrong • NOAA adding: – Up to 5 flights – 240 dropsondes – Mission science guidance – Targeting input • Real-time data transmission/assimilation planned

SHOUT 2015 Observing Goals • Early period – Tropical cyclones • Forecast improvements for track and intensity – Option for both Atlantic and Pacific – Atlantic tradeoff of deployment costs vs station time • Later period – High-impact storms in continental US – Alaska weather • Coastal flooding • Atmospheric rivers – Forecast improvement for threats like extreme precipitation and damaging winds – Targeted lead times of 3 -7 days • Potential contribution to satellite calibration/validation

SHOUT Targeting Strategies • Tropical cyclones – SUNY group proposed to explore – Interactions with AOML/ESRL • High-impact weather events – Toth (ESRL) proposed to explore methodologies – Identification of threat cases – Fully automated Ensemble Transform sensitivity algorithm to identify sensitive areas – Produce “optimized” flight track to sample sensitive region for selected threat

Field Work Planning Issues • • • Selection of instrument payloads will need to proceed rapidly Will explore option of 2 aircraft to enhance payload evaluation Will explore 3 month deployment period from California Will utilize OSSE guidance to extent possible Initial payload starting point – Tropical cyclones • Dropsondes • HS 3 payload candidates • NAVY HDSS and NASA LIP – High-impact weather • • Dropsondes HAMSR TWi. Li. TE S-HIS • Further discussion planned for May SHOUT Working Group Meeting

Discussion Points • Value of three month deployment • Initial thoughts on payloads • Performance Metrics – The annual performance measure will be to maintain a 10% improvement in oceanic storm track and intensity prediction each year that UAS observations are used to augment satellite observations and no more than a 10% degradation in the same predication capabilities when satellite observations are not present.