ShortRange Numerical Weather Prediction Programme COSMO Annual Meeting

Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme COSMO Annual Meeting 2005 20 -23 September 2005 Zurich (Switzerland) COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland)

The Network of Consortia HIRLAM Denmark*, Finland*, Iceland*, Ireland*, Netherlands*, Norway*, Spain*, Sweden* COSMO Germany*, Greece*, Italy*, Poland (Warsaw Branch), Romania, Switzerland* ALADIN Austria*, Belgium*, France*, Portugal*, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*, Moldova, Poland (Cracow Branch), Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia ALADIN – LACE Austria*, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*, Slovakia, Slovenia UKMO United Kingdom* 26 NWS are Members of the SRNWP Programme * EUMETNET Member COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 2

SRNWP actions in progress • SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project • Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe • Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24 -hourly accumulated daily precipitations • Model comparison • New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 3

SRNWP actions in progress • SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project • Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe • Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24 -hourly accumulated daily precipitations • Model comparison • New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 4

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 5

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 6

COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 7

SRNWP actions in progress • SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project • Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe • Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24 -hourly accumulated daily precipitations • Model comparison • New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 8

Motivations • The spatial density of the SYNOP precipitations is absolutely inadequate for the validation and verification of the very high resolution models • Creation of a “data hub for the precipitation observations” as already done by EUMETNET at the Met Office for the radar and wind-profiler data (“one stop chop” strategy) • In the future - still a lot of development work to do – high resolution precipitation data will also be used in the data assimilation process COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 9

Situation today in Europe Who is collecting today in Europe 24 -hourly accumulated high-resolution precipitation observations? DWD (for Consortium COSMO) ECMWF (data from the Members) EU Project ENSEMBLES EUROGRID show-case (non yet accepted) Report in the SRNWP web site. COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 10

Candidates Two very good candidates: = DWD - Does already this work but for COSMO Members only = ECMWF - Receives the data from all the Members and associated Members and makes gridded analyses COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 11

SRNWP actions in progress • SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project • Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe • Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24 -hourly accumulated daily precipitations • Model comparison • New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 12

Reason • At least 3 times – in Council or ICWED Meetings – our Directors have expressed the wish of a model comparison over Europe. • It has to be cheap. Thus only main models will be compared: - LM (run by the DWD) - Aladin-France - HIRLAM (reference version at FMI) - UM (North-Atlantic / Europe version) COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 13

Facts • Already today the Met Office compares daily the precipitations of these 4 models over Great-Britain (24 -hourly accumulated) • The Met Office has been chosen for this comparison as the work will consist for him of an extension of an already existing task: several of its tools will be used directly COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 14

Plan • Verified will be from T+0 to T+48 at 6 h intervals: - precipitations - mean sea level pressure - 2 m temperature - 10 m wind • Scores for precipitations: - frequency bias - equitable threat score - log-odds ratio - Hansen-Kuipers skill score COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 15

Results and Costs • Results Monthly mean statistics will be calculated and published on the Met Office external internet site under password protection • Costs The costs that will be submitted to the EUMETNET Council will amount to the salary of a scientist for 9 months per year COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 16

SRNWP actions in progress • SRNWP / DWD PEPS Project • Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs in Europe • Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24 -hourly accumulated daily precipitations • Model comparison • New format of the SRNWP Annual Meetings COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 17

The SRNWP Workshops • Variational Methods (Met Office) • Nonhydrostatic Modeling (DWD) • Numerical Techniques (Meteo-France) • Soil data analysis and soil processes (INM/SMHI) • Statistical and Physical Adaptation (ZAMG) • Meso-scale verification (KNMI) • Short-range EPS (UGM) COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 18

The 2004 SRNWP Workshops SRNWP Workshop on Mesoscale Verification 14 -15 June 2004, KNMI, De Bilt 40 participants HIRLAM/SRNWP Workshop on Soil Analysis and Soil Processes 15 -17 September 2004, SMHI, Norrköping 30 participants SRNWP / Met Office / HIRLAM Workshop on Variational Methods High resolution data assimilation: towards 1 -4 km resolution 15 -17 November 2004, Met Office, Exeter. 80 participants COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 19

The 2005 SRNWP Workshops SRNWP Workshop on Short-Range EPS 7 -8 April 2005, UGM / ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna 80 participants SRNWP Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical Application 1 -2 June 2005, ZAMG, Vienna 25 participants SRNWP Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Modelling "Convection resolving models" 31 Oct – 02 Nov 2005, DWD, Bad Orb (Probably 70 -80 participants) COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 20

Long life to COSMO with a lot of success! COSMO Annual Meeting 2005, 20 -23 September 2005, Zurich (Switzerland) 21