Shift in DPRK Nuclear Policy Impact on Arsenal

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Shift in DPRK Nuclear Policy Impact on Arsenal Size, Command Control Diane Stevenson, Thomson

Shift in DPRK Nuclear Policy Impact on Arsenal Size, Command Control Diane Stevenson, Thomson Reuters Special Services 1

What is Nuclear Posture? Policies that determine the role of nuclear weapons in strategy

What is Nuclear Posture? Policies that determine the role of nuclear weapons in strategy Why does North Korea’s matter? DPRK nuclear intentions are critical to the security balance in Northeast Asia How can we determine North Korea’s posture? Observing recent events suggests changes in domestic nuclear politics 2

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Past Present Future 3

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Past Present Future 3

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves around a third party patron No third party patron Requires a small arsenal Requires a larger arsenal Limited technical threshold High technical threshold Past Present Future 4

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves

UNDERSTANDING NORTH KOREA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR POSTURE Historic Posture: Catalytic New Posture: Assured Retaliatory Revolves around a third party patron No third party patron Requires a small arsenal Requires a larger arsenal Limited technical threshold High technical threshold Past Present Indicators • Relationship with China • Arsenal size • Development of increasingly survivable and technically advanced systems Future 5

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS 6

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES Development of

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES Development of survivable and mobile systems US RESPONSE OPTIONS Prioritizing missile defense systems 7

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS Development of survivable and mobile systems Prioritizing missile defense systems Changes to the command control structure Tasking intelligence and military assets to track second-strike systems 8

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE

NEW POSTURE INFORMS FUTURE DPRK ARSENAL AND US RESPONSE DPRK STRATEGIC FORCES US RESPONSE OPTIONS Development of survivable and mobile systems Prioritizing missile defense systems Changes to the command control structure Tasking intelligence and military assets to track second-strike systems Future research on missile defense evasion Partnering with China to restrict technical progress 9

Thank You! 10

Thank You! 10