Shehzad NooraniUNICEF SSI Webinar Climate Science Update Jean

Shehzad Noorani/UNICEF SSI Webinar: Climate Science Update Jean Sideris, Outreach Coordinator Dr. Brenda Ekwurzel, Climate Scientist Dr. Melanie Fitzpatrick, Climate Scientist Sound Science Initiative (SSI) March 30, 2009

NOAA Sea level rise over last decade was faster than scientists had projected Source: IPCC (2007)

Source: Rahmstorf et al. 2007 and updated by personal communication

Observed Sea Level Change (1992– 2002) Source: Yin et al. 2009

Projected anomalies (2091– 2100 relative to 1981– 2000) in the A 2 (high emissions) IPCC scenario Source: Yin et al. 2009

Source: Yin et al. 2009 Dynamic Sea Level Rise (2091 -2100) by Ten IPCC AR 4 Models.

Brenda Ekwurzel

Brenda Ekwurzel

Source: Pfeffer et al. 2008

1980 Annual Sea Ice Minimum NASA

2007 Annual Sea Ice Minimum NASA

Source: Stroeve et al. 2007 and update d by Dirk Notz Hamburg

NOAA

Serreze et al. 2009 Arctic amplification is largely driven by loss of the sea ice cover

Rapid sea ice loss forces a strong acceleration of Arctic land warming Source: Lawrence et al. 2008

V. Romanovsky, Univ. Alaska Fairbanks A link between rapid sea ice loss and permafrost health

Amazon rainforest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. • Monitored forest plots across the basin for 25 years • Before 2005 plots recorded net increase in aboveground biomass • Net loss of biomass in plots with most drought compared to local average moisture conditions • Selected tree loss (5% less dense)

NOAA NASA NPS NASA CO 2 B. Ekwurzel Sources Sinks

Sinks B. Ekwurzel CO 2 NOAA NASA Ocean slowing down its absorption of CO 2 More CO 2 Remains in Atmosphere

International Scientific Congress On Climate Change Copenhagen, March 2009 Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen • 2500 participants, 220 journalists • Update on IPCC Science – WG I, II and III • Conference proceedings published in June to influence international negotiations in December • Six themes, 57 parallel sessions over 3 days

New Estimates Sea Level Rise Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen • Stefan Rahmstorf - Opening Plenary • New semi-empirical method • Unpublished • Estimates agree with Pfeffer 2008 • Global projections: 2100 >1 m SLR; 2200 1. 5 -3. 5 SLR; 2300 > 5 m SLR

Tipping Points Permafrost Thawing Vladamir E. Romanovsky in ACIA 2004 Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen “The latest estimate of the amount of carbon in permafrost is 1. 7 trillion tons, more than twice the 2007 [IPCC] estimate. ” – Chris Field at Copenhagen Conference 2009

Tipping Points Amazon Dieback UK Met Office Modelers from the U. K. ’s Met Office presented new data showing that even a global cessation of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 could lead to a loss of up to 40% of the Amazon rainforest – Copenhagen Conference 2009 Lizette Kabré/University Of Copenhagen

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