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Shake. Alert Building the Shake. Alert Communication, Education, and Outreach Program Robert de Groot U. S. Geological Survey Earthquake Early Warning Coordinator For Communication, Education, and Outreach Shake. Alert Organizations USGS California OES California Geological Survey Caltech UC Berkeley University of Washington Shake. Alert. org University of Oregon Moore Foundation University Of Nevada, Reno Central Washington Univ.
EEW Concept Network Based Alerts P-wave ~ 3. 5 mi/sec (6 km/s) (felt waves) S-wave ~ 2. 0 mi/sec (3 km/s) (damaging waves) Alert ~ 186, 000 mi/sec (3 x 108 m/s (speed of light) Sensors closer to the epicenter = more warning time 2
Alerts are Not Simple • Large Earthquakes… • Grow over time (seconds to minutes) • Rupture long faults • May be complex (splay or jump) • Shake. Alert system must … • Model the fault rupture as it grows • Estimate growing alert area (updates) • Alerts must … • Be fast (can’t wait for quake to end) • Describe both… • Intensity distribution (alert polygons) • Source (fault + magnitude) • Update frequently (every few seconds) • This is challenging for current alert methods
User. Display – Shake. Out M 7. 8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution Warning time User Location P & S waves Intensity System/Notification
User. Display – Shake. Out M 7. 8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution System/Notification
The Path to Shake. Alert Development Phases: q 2006 -2009 – R&D, network upgrades q 2009 -2012 – operationalize, more upgrades Shake. Alert Data Centers Pac. NW - Jan. 2012 – CA: Demo System Live q 2012 -2015 – Evolve Demo to Production Prototype - Feb. 2015 – PNW: Demo System Live q 2016 -2017 – continued improvement, testing No. CA - Feb. 2016 – CA: Production Prototype Live - Early 2017 – PNW: WC Production Prototype Live - Implementing Selected Pilot Projects q 2018 – limited public roll-out q ? - Full Public Operation (depends on funding) So. CA
Station Buildout Pac. NW • 1, 675 total stations – Spacing: 10 km metro, 20 km near sources, 40 km elsewhere • ~760 stations currently – Many still need upgrade • Permits & NEPA/CEQA on public lands is challenging Shake. Alert Station Plan - 10 UNR stations - Radio upgrades No. CA So. CA
Shake. Alert: Major System Components Sensor Networks Field telemetry Processing Alert Creation Alert Delivery User Actions
Two End-User Categories People (personnel, public) Things (automated systems) • Needs… – Fast, reliable alert delivery – Evidence-based alert sounds and messaging – User education & training – Fast, reliable alert delivery – Pre-set, situation-specific decision logic, actuators – Private technology developers
Applications Valuable seconds to tens of seconds warning for… • People • move to safety • drop, cover, and hold-on • mental preparation • Things • • • automated controls slow, stop transportation isolate sensitive systems and processes • Situation awareness • • Real-time operational picture Take actions before infrastructure is affected
Shake. Alert Communication, Education & Outreach (CEO) • Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (CA, WA, OR, BC) • User workshops in Seattle, Berkeley, and Pasadena (Sept. ‘ 16) • Coordinating Beta & pilot user relations Social science R&D Development of alert content: messages, sounds, signals – Pre-event education and training – – –
Shake. Alert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (JCCEO) Chair Robert de Groot Vice Chair Jennifer Strauss State Geological Surveys Appointed by State Geologist Offices of Emergency Management USGS Office Communications Western Region Kate Long Emily Holland Donyelle Davis UC Berkeley Jennifer Strauss Cindy Pridmore Washington EMD Maximilian Dixon Washington Brian Terbush Caltech Margaret Vinci Tim Walsh Oregon OEM Oregon Althea Rizzo Karen Layng U Washington William Steele Ali Ryan Hansen Ian Madin U Oregon *Science Application for Risk Reduction USGS SAFRR* Project vacant Justin Pressfield Cal OES California Universities Leland O’Driscoll
JCCEO Focus Groups a c b Focus groups (a, b, c) are convened, address their task(s), produce their deliverables, and then are dissolved. They have specific goals and tasks. Consultants (blank circles) are brought in as needed. a S/P Focus groups share and request feedback on their findings with State Committees and the JCCEO Plenary Committee. All members of JCCEO have a voice in multiple contexts. JC Once findings from a Focus Group are reported and vetted, consensus based recommendations, products, and/or programs are presented by the Focus Groups to the JCCEO Plenary Committee for approval.
Shake. Alert Pilot Implemenation Partners as of 1/17
Shake. Alert Roll-out Plan Roll-out Steps • Pilots - selected fault tolerant use • Automated Actions - wider industrial use, transportation • Limited people alerts groups who can be trained • Expanded people alerts in public venues (w/ no advance training) • Geographically limited public alerts Pilots (where network is dense) • Full public alerts! Via all available pathways • Encourage responsible use of alerts • Pace applications with system capabilities