Session 3 The Mechanics of viability testing Residential

Session 3: The Mechanics of viability testing

Residential vs. commercial Residential Commercial Purchaser usually buying a home they intend to occupy themselves One customer: Usually a purchaser looking for a new home. Purchaser usually buying a rental stream as well as the property itself Two customers: Tenant looking for suitable premises and investor looking for a rental stream. Usually valued using NIA Usually valued using GIA

What is the ‘yield’? • The rent as a proportion of the purchase price • There is an inverse relationship between yields & values, i. e. a higher yield means a lower value & a lower yield means a higher value. • Yields are often used in development appraisals to estimate the value of the completed development when it is expected to be rented to a tenant (or tenants). This consequently usually applies to commercial property, although it can apply to residential property where it is also rented.

Yield example • Offices are often not bought by companies who wish to occupy them, but investors such as pension funds. Let us assume a pension fund wants to buy an office when it is fully occupied by a tenant (or tenants). • The developer should have a firm idea of what rent the building is likely to achieve e. g. £ 100, 000 pa. • In basic development appraisals, the initial rent is therefore used to help estimate the development value. The key question is therefore how much should this rent should be multiplied by to calculate what price a purchaser will pay.

Yield example (continued…) • The “multiplier” is calculated as 1 / yield. Therefore: Development Value = Initial Rent x (1 / Yield) x 100 • Let’s assume the pension fund requires a return of 6% pa. Therefore the value of the rented office building as an investment is calculated as follows: £ 100, 000 x (1 / 6) x 100 = £ 1. 6 m

Yield example (continued…) • The previous scenario did not include assumptions on future rent or prospects for capital growth of the asset i. e. it assumed the pension fund would receive a flat £ 100, 000 pa in perpetuity. • Let us now assume the office is in a good location with a good tenant and good prospects for rental growth e. g. up and coming area, office market looking healthy locally etc. With this information the pension fund is likely to accept a lower initial yield e. g. 5%: £ 100, 000 x (1 / 5) x 100 = £ 2 m

Yield example (continued…) • Let us now assume the pension fund are less convinced that the rent will rise in the future and they are worried that the tenant found by the developer are unlikely to stay solvent or remain in the area long term. With this information the pension fund is likely to want a much higher yield e. g. 10%: £ 100, 000 x (1 / 10) x 100 = £ 1 m • These examples demonstrate the inverse relationship between yields & values. Clearly it would make no sense for the pension fund to pay over the odds for a riskier investment.

What affects yields? • Risk & future growth prospects (rental stream & capital value of property). High risk = high yield. But, the higher the future growth prospects = lower yield • Low risk = lower return e. g. savings in an ISA. In a casino you would be aiming for a higher 'yield' to compensate for the probability of failure • For the main investment classes Government Bonds (gilts) are low risk whereas stocks & shares are more high risk. Returns on property investment tend to be in the middle, offering more income & capital growth potential than gilts and less risk than shares

What affects property yields? • The tenant - Is it a strong tenant in terms of security of income (or rent)? Security is something you would normally expect to pay for, perhaps by accepting a lower initial return on your investment. • The area - Is the location suitable for a building of this quality? Is it declining or improving? Is the access good? • The building itself - What is it like? If the tenant goes bust, how easy will it be to find a new tenant? Do these and other lease clauses protect your investment e. g. upward only rent reviews etc. ?

Rent to Value Table 5. 1 Capitalised typical rents £/m 2 Rent£/m 2 Yield Large industrial Small industrial Distribution Large office Small office Large retail Convenience Large retail - Other Small Retail Leicester Shops Other Shops Hotels Student Halls Leisure 41 48 50 93 100 7. 0% 6. 5% 7. 0% Capitalised Rent £/m 2 586 686 833 1, 431 1, 429 130 120 105 236 150 5. 0% 7. 0% 11. 0% 6. 5% 8. 0% 2, 600 1, 714 1, 500 3, 371 1, 364 2, 150 2, 225 938 75

Rents, Yield and Capital Value Development Value = Rent x (1 / Yield) x 100 Yield = (Rent / Value) x 100 Years Purchase (YP) = 1/Yield

Yield Exercise

A simple development viability appraisal • • • Data Collection Calculation (Residual Value, Cashflow) Reality Check Interpretation Use of data Note: Will discuss consultation later – it is vital and required!

Internal Rate of Return – IRR The rate of interest (expressed as a percentage) at which all future cash flows (positive and negative) must be discounted in order that the net present value of those cash flows, including the initial investment, should be equal to zero. It is found by trial and error by applying present values at different rates of interest in turn to the net cash flow. It is sometimes called the discounted cash flow rate of return. In development financial viability appraisals the IRR is commonly, although not always, calculated on a without-finance basis as a total project IRR. (RICS Guidance)

Data Collection Rubbish in = Rubbish out All inputs MUST be sourced!

Income Data

Income Data • Basic Prices by £/m 2 • Residential Prices – House v flats • Commercial / non-residential • Affordable Prices • New v existing • Incentives and discounts • Variance by location or situation? • Grants, subsidies

Gross internal area? • BCIS (the costs) as ‘Rate per m 2 gross internal floor area for the building’ • Direct from developers • Calculate – it will be an estimate

Income Data - Residential • • • Land Registry Hometrack Rightmove / Zoopla / Mouseprice Halifax / Nationwide CORE • Developers and RPs

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Income Data – Non-Residential • EGi Data / EGI Property Link • Agents • Valuation Office Agency • Developers

EGI – Propertydata

EGI Property Link

Costs

Construction • • BCIS Site Costs Abnormals Contingency

BCIS

Construction • BCIS • Site Costs – • Abnormals – • Contingency – 10% to 20% site by site Highways, flooding demolition, design, decontamination etc. 2. 5% Greenfield 5% Brownfield +7% on horrible sites

Phasing and Build Rate • Size of site • Size of developer • Availability of mortgages • Pre 2007 45 to 50 per year • Now? 30 to 35 per year • Multiple developers

Variables • Small Changes of cost or income can have a huge difference in result – the bigger the numbers the more sensitive. – 101 -100=1 but 102 -100=2 – 1% change in price results in a 100% change in outcome • Scenarios – cost and price change policy requirements

Building the model up and scenario testing • Discounted Cash Flow – NPV – IRR • Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Assumptions and testing “make some very cautious and transparent assumptions with sensitivity testing of the robustness of those assumptions it is important that variations against baseline costs, as well as values, are tested. ” (page 27 – Harman)

Viability over time • 5 year supply should not be prejudiced by unrealistic forecasting assumptions • Sensitivity testing should inform policy context for years 5 -15, forecasts for latter part of the period are unlikely to be accurate and will need review • LPAs may wish to incorporate target-based policies for years 6 -15

Carveth Read: “It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong” Logic, deductive and inductive (1898), p. 351

Monitoring Viability By reference to indices: Costs BCIS GDV Land Reg Halifax / Nationwide Composite Academetrics Hometrack Rightmove / Zoopla / BUT – have new build followed wider market?

Consultation • Why • Who with • When • So what and what do you do with the results?

Consultations Engagement • A fundamental part of plan making and a requirement of NPPF, CIL Regs, Harman Guidance • Don’t be afraid to ask the developers – For some evidence to support figures – To explain / for detail • Record process and comments METICULOUSLY • What have you actually asked and is it in the context of delivering the development plan

Engagement Phases • Delay at your peril • Two or three stages

Stage 1 Engagement • Background and why – Methodology – Viability test – Appraisal assumptions • Not results • Certainly not policy Stage 1 includes establishing agreement on methodology and assumptions (build costs, sale prices etc. ) Does not include workings.

Stage 2 Engagement • Changes made from first consultation (or not) – Methodology – Viability test – Appraisal assumptions • Draft Results • Emerging conclusions • Still not policy

Stage 3 Engagement • • Results Factors other than viability to consider Emerging and developing policy Changes to existing policy • Approve now or hang on?

Case study: South Worcestershire

Case Study – South Worcestershire Local Plan

No additional requirements • No affordable housing • Built to Building Regulations (Part L) • Density informed by consultation with officers and developers – lower than policy to reflect current delivery (targets assume high content of flats etc) • Greenfield sites over 1 hectare have 40% open space • No CIL or s 106 • All other requirements over high quality and locally distinctive design and safe design remain

No additional requirements

Build Standards • Code for Sustainable Homes Level 4 from April 2013 – Add 6% to cost of house • SWLP 26 Renewable and Low Carbon Energy (a) All new developments will be required to incorporate the generation of energy…by at least 10%. (b) All new development (as part of the major developments) will be required to incorporate the generation of energy…by at least 20%. – Add 2. 5% to cost of house (+/- £ 2, 500 /dwelling) • NOT JUST REDUCING USE – ACTUALLY ABOUT GENERATION • NO EVIDENCE OF ANY PRICE BENEFIT FROM REDUCED ENERGY BILLS

Cf. SH Level 4 + Onsite Generation

Affordable Housing • 15 or more 40% • 10 – 14 30% • 5– 9 20% As social rented, affordable rented and intermediate tenure and provided on site NOT TESTED Less than 5, a financial contribution will be required.

Affordable Housing

Density • Density informed by consultation – lower than policy • Greenfield sites over 1 hectare have 40% open space • Brownfield sites NO Public Open Space • Greenfield sites less than 1 ha but more than 5 units 20% open space

Affordable Housing, Density, Cf. SH 4, Onsite Generation, ‘No’ CIL

Uncertain Market Average Prices

Uncertain Market Indexed turn over (from January 2006)

5% fall in prices

Cumulative Impact of Policies Affordable Housing, Density, Cf. SH 4, Onsite Generation

TEA BREAK

Exercise: Acronym bingo

Acronym Bingo! a) The estimated amount for which an asset or liability should exchange on the valuation date between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s-length transaction b) A measure of the level of profit relative to level of capital employed/required to deliver a project. The average level of developer overhead and profit. c) Where an alternative use can be readily identified as generating a higher value for a site, the value for this alternative use would be the market value with an assumption. d) All income from the scheme. e) The value at which a typical willing landowner is likely to release land for development. f) An excess of abbreviations formed from the initial components in a phrase/word. GDV TLV TMA EUV AUV ROCE

Contact us Email gilian. macinnes@local. gov. uk pas@local. gov. uk Web www. pas. gov. uk Phone 020 7664 3187 Simon Drummond-Hay Email simon@drummond-hay. co. uk Phone 015242 76205 / 07989 975 977 David Carlisle Email david. a. carlisle@urs. com Phone 020 7821 4194 / 07827353558