SESAME 2000 2010 SURVIVALSEEDS Cindy Bae 18214072 Elly

SESAME 2000 -2010 SURVIVALSEEDS Cindy Bae (18214072) Elly Jang (25693094) Vicky Wu (15039076) Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123) Amelia Zhu (37438090)

OUTLINEOFSESAME • Introduction • Sesame World Market Trend - Production, Supply, Demand - Price Pattern - Market Concentration and Thickness of the Market • Market Analysis - Supply and Demand Shock - Case Study Countries: Ethiopia, China, Japan • Conclusion INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 2

Calendar Activity Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Land clearing & Preparation Seeding/Sa wing Weed and Pest Control Harvesting Threshing INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 3

SESAMEPROFILE Growing Condition: sandy loam soil with p. H 5. 5 – 8. 0 area below 1, 250 meters above sea level temperature above 20 C rainfall from 500 – 650 mms Growing Distribution: Developing countries produce 98% of world sesame seed, because harvesting sesame is labor intensive INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 4

WHERESESAMEGROWS India Sudan Ethiopia China Burma Uganda INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 5

SESAMEPROFILE Sesame Usage: Food (oil, seasoning), Pharmaceutical and Cosmetics Health effect: High in Vitamin E & B and Low in Cholesterol High Anti-Oxidant Lowering Blood Pressure Bone and Respiratory Health Cancer Prevention Different type: Oil Grade Sesame (White) Food Grade Sesame (Black) Sesame with higher oil content is considered of higher grade INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 6

SESAMEMARKET World Production VS Supply VS Demand 4500000 Production 4000000 Supply Demand 3500000 3000000 Growth Ratio, 2000 -2010 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 Production 1. 075 = 8% Supply 1. 114 = 11% Demand 1. 117 = 12% Demand grows more rapidly than supply and production 500000 0 2001 2002 INTRODUCTION 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 WORLD MARKET TREND 2009 2010 MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 7

SESAMEMARKET 2000 -2010 Top 5 Exporters Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern $/tonne Real Price - Main Exporters 2500 India Sudan (former) Ethiopia 2000 Nigeria China 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 INTRODUCTION Yea WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 8

SESAMEMARKET 2000 -2010 Top 5 Importers Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern $/tonne Real Price - Main Importers 2500 China Japan Turkey 2000 Republic of Korea Syrian Arab Republic 1500 1000 500 Year 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 9

BASELINERATIO 2000 -2010 Top 5 Exporters Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth Ratio India Sudan (former) Ethiopia Nigeria China 1. 199429 = 20% 1. 211999 = 21% 1. 12072 = 12% 1. 13141 = 13% 1. 197077 = 20% Top 5 Importers Price Growth Ratio China Japan Turkey Republic of Korea Syrian Arab Republic 1. 19384 = 20% 1. 175218 = 18% 1. 257159 = 26% 1. 191829 = 19% 1. 11697 = 12% 1. 131868059 = 13% Food Price Index Growth Ratio 1. 131868059 = 13% Sesame price had the same pattern with food price index, but increased rapidly INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 10

SESAMESEED 2000 Main Tonne China 811819 Sudan (former) 209949 Japan 164713 India 517800 India 183306 Egypt 85919 Myanmar 295515 China 103326 Republic of Korea 70118 Sudan (former) 282000 Myanmar 34400 United States of America 49062 Uganda 97000 Nigeria 30200 China 37149 %top producers/world 79% %top exporters/world 76% %top importers/world 62% World 2535731 World 736800 World 658917 producers Exporters Importers %production traded: 736800 / 2535731 = 29% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 11

SESAMESEED 2008 Main Tonne Myanmar 853390 India 194365 China 234044 India 640000 Ethiopia 130977 Japan 185105 China 586701 Myanmar 110000 Turkey 80194 Sudan (former) 350000 Sudan (former) 105541 Republic of Korea 63949 Ethiopia 186772 Nigeria 91400 Syrian Arab Republic 43456 %top producers/world 76% %top exporters/world World 3465615 World producers Exporters Importers 70% %top importers/world 66% 906549 World 923229 %production traded: 906549 / 3465615 = 29% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 12

SESAMESEED 2010 Main Tonne India 893000 India 321771 China 420635 Myanmar 880000 Ethiopia 228039 Japan 161433 China 587947 Nigeria 140800 Turkey 102058 Ethiopia 260534 Sudan (former) 138000 Republic of Korea 77747 Sudan (former) 248000 United Republic of Tanzania 65708 Syrian Arab Republic 52028 producers %top producers/world World Exporters 73% %top exporters/world 3931636 World Importers 73% %top importers/world 70% 1231737 World 1166448 %production traded: = 1231737 / 3931636 = 31% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 13

RATIO 2000 -2010 2008 2010 Producer CR (%top producers/world) 79% 76% 73% Exporter CR (%top producers/world) 76% 70% 73% Importer CR (%top producers/world) 62% 66% 70% %production traded 29% 31% • Neither perfect thin nor thick market Thin (10%) < Sesame (30%) < Thick (50%) Moderate well traded; main producers are also main exporters ; market is concentrated; less price volatility INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION

MARKETANALYSIS World Price ↑ World Supply (Quantity) ↑ Technology Land Use INTRODUCTION Policy World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑ Oil Price (2008) WORLD MARKET TREND Income MARKET ANALYSIS Economical Crisis CONCLUSION Awareness of Health 15

OILPRICE Real Price - Main Exporters 2500 $/tonn 2000 India 1500 Sudan (former) 1000 Ethiopia 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $/ton 2500 ne Year Real Price - Main Importers 2000 China Japan 1500 Turkey 1000 Republic of Korea Syrian Arab Republic 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year High oil price in 2008 affected the high price in world sesame price. INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 16

CHANGEINGDP World Demand for Sesame 1400000 1200000 1000000 TON 800000 Sesame 600000 400000 200000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YEAR As the income increased, food demand including sesame increase. INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 17

BYPRODUCTEFFECT The sesame seed world demand shows a similar pattern with sesame oil demand INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 18

EXPORTERS • MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES ETHIOPIA IMPORTERS • MAJOR CHANGE • COUNTRIES CHINA • JAPAN INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 19

MAJOREXPORTERS SESAME SEEDS MAJOR EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS 2000 Ranked in Order by Countries 2008 2010 Ranked in Order Exported by Countries Market Share (%) Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Sudan (Former) 28. 49% India 21. 44% India 26. 12% India China 24. 88% 14. 02% Ethiopia Burma 14. 45% 12. 13% Ethiopia Nigeria 18. 51% 11. 43% Myanmar 4. 67% Sudan (Former) 11. 64% Sudan (Former) 11. 20% Nigeria 4. 10% Nigeria 10. 08% United Republic of Tanzania 5. 33% Top 3 67. 40% Top 3 48. 02% Top 3 56. 07% Top 5 76. 16% Top 5 69. 75% Top 5 72. 61% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 20

WORLDMARKET MAJOR CHANGE ON EXPORTERS India (Stable) Large Land Usage + Low Productivity Sudan (Decreased) Reduced Land Usage + Low Productivity; Market Share: 28. 49% 11. 20% Ethiopia (Increased) Market Share: 18. 51% China (Decreased) Market Share: 14. 02% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 21

IMPORTERSOFETHIOPIA SESAME SEEDS 2005 2011 Ranked in Order by Countries Exported Market Share (%) Japan United States Egypt Jordan Greece Saudi Arabia Lebanon Netherland Switzerland Other 26. 11 25. 92 19. 53 10. 68 8. 45 2. 63 1. 91 1. 39 1. 32 2. 07 China Turkey Israel Jordan Greece Saudi Arabia Yemen United States Other TOTAL 41. 22 21. 59 13. 22 7. 75 6. 50 4. 28 2. 22 1. 47 1. 75 TOTAL 100 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS 100 CONCLUSION 22

ETHIOPIA REASONS FOR CHANGE 1. Target Market: Low Value Export Markets a. Japan: strict standard on quality and food safety b. USA & Europe: high food safety standards (organic certification) for bakery applications c. Substitute effect of Cotton seed (Profitable for farmers, 90% oil) 2. Strategic Policy: a. ECX (Ethiopia Commodity Exchange from 2008) b. Currency Depreciation (Positive correlation between export volume and nominal exchange rate) 3. Competitor: Sudan a. Access to sea port b. Policy reason: Sudan benefits further from membership in the Pan-Arab free trade area. INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 23

MAJORIMPORTERS SESAME SEEDS MAJOR IMPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS 2000 2008 2010 Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) Japan 25. 00% China 25. 35% China 36. 06% Egypt 13. 04% Japan 20. 05% Japan 13. 84% South Korea 10. 64% Turkey 8. 69% Turkey 8. 75% United States 7. 45% South Korea 6. 93% South Korea 6. 67% China 5. 64% Syrian Arab Republic 4. 71% Syrian Arab Republic 4. 46% TOP 3 48. 68% TOP 3 54. 09% TOP 3 58. 65% TOP 5 61. 76% TOP 5 65. 72% TOP 5 69. 78% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 24

WORLDMARKET MAJOR CHANGE ON IMPORTERS Japan (Decreased) Market Share: 25. 00% 13. 84% China (Increased) Market Share: 5. 64% 36. 06% INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 25

CHINA CHANGE IN IMPORT/EXPORT PATTERNS 2000 3 RD LARGEST EXPORTER 2008 1 ST LARGEST IMPORTER 2010 1 ST LARGEST IMPORTER INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 26

CHINA ECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL 1. Planting area a) Poor Weather 2. Highest Productivity a) Increased R&D b) Improved Technology c) Increased Labor Input 3. Different types of grade a) Import Oil Grade (White) b) Export Food Grade (Black) CONSUMPTION >> PRODUCTION INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 27

EXPORTERSOFCHINA POLICY & REGULATION Exporters No Tariff for African countries 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Market Share (%) World 124908 210873 168883 249375 387610 48. 5 1 Ethiopia 66995 109601 65398 57241 188143 9. 8 2 Tanzania 14129 9460 10107 12066 37931 9. 6 3 Mozambique 2609 5181 9786 25085 37078 9. 0 4 Myanmar 4288 2500 17457 66595 34714 7. 2 5 Sudan 19398 54722 13944 14219 27842 4. 2 6 India 8557 10097 35820 48138 16234 2. 8 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 28

EXPORTERSOFJAPAN SESAME SEEDS 2005 2009 Ranked in Order by Countries Imported Market Share (%) China Nigeria Guatemala Tanzania Paraguay Burma Burkina Faso Ethiopia Pakistan Sudan 26. 23 19. 94 10. 61 7. 09 5. 56 4. 67 4. 56 4. 02 3. 08 2. 72 INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND Ranked in Order by Countries Nigeria Paraguay Burma Tanzania China Bolivia Guatemala Burkina Faso Turkey Sudan MARKET ANALYSIS Imported Market Share (%) 22. 28 16. 57 9. 59 9. 10 8. 02 7. 48 6. 56 6. 50 3. 19 3. 17 CONCLUSION 29

JAPAN REASONS FOR CHANGE 1. No Local Production, but High Consumption of Sesame Seed 2. High quality oil for different usages a. Food, Cosmetics, Pharmaceutical & Medication Usage 3. Main Exporter: Nigeria a. High Quality & High Oil Content b. Minimum Barriers to Trade between Japan & Nigeria 4. POLICY & REGULATION a. No tariff on sesame seed imports INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 30

MARKETANALYSIS World Price ↑ World Supply (Quantity) ↑ Technology $/tonne Land Use World Demand (Quantity) ↑↑ Oil Price (2008) Policy Real Price - Main Exporters $/tonne Income Economical Crisis Awareness of Health Real Price - Main Importers 2500 2000 India 1500 Sudan (former) 1000 500 Ethiopia 1000 Nigeria 500 China 0 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 INTRODUCTION Year WORLD MARKET TREND China 1500 Japan Turkey Republic of Korea Syrian Arab Republic 0 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 2000 MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION Year 31

TAKE AWAY MASSAGE Sesame market is filled with potential; it is definitely a market that’s worth investing in. INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 32

References • http: //www. atfp. org. ae/English/studies/Sudan-tp/sdntp-sesame 2011. pdf • http: //faostat. fao. org/site/291/default. aspx • http: //www. ipmsethiopia. org/content/files/Documents/publications/Msc. Theses/Final. Thesis_ Kindie. Aysheshm. pdf • http: //www. unep-unctad. org/cbtf/events/kampala 5/day 2/23 Sesame%20 The%20 underexploited%20 organic%20 oil%20 seed%20 crop%20 paper%20 Ol. pdf • http: //web. ebscohost. com/ehost/pdfviewer? sid=1 efcbcc 3 -a 8 d 6436 f-9 b 20 -d 6 f 54 e 7 cde 34%40 sessionmgr 110&vid=8&hid=119 • http: //web. ebscohost. com/ehost/pdfviewer? sid=1 efcbcc 3 -a 8 d 6436 f-9 b 20 -d 6 f 54 e 7 cde 34%40 sessionmgr 110&vid=14&hid=119 • http: //www. tcboostproject. com/_resources/resource/NEEP%20 Sesame%20 Market%20 Intelligence%20 Report. pdf • http: //www. un. org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp_current/2012 wesp_prerel. pdf INTRODUCTION WORLD MARKET TREND MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSION 33