Security Planning and Transformation Institutionalizing Transformation Achieving Balance
Security Planning and Transformation • Institutionalizing Transformation • Achieving Balance • The Future Force Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 22 Apr 04
Strategic Transformation Appraisal … The TPG Process in Action Office of Force Transformation Strategic Planning Guidance Major Combat Operations JOC JOINT OPERATIONS CONCEPTS Stability Operations JOC Strategic Deterrence JOC Homeland Security JOC FY 2006 - FY 2011 November 2003 Joint Transformation Roadmap Strategic Transformation Appraisal Naval Transformation Roadmap 2003 Air Force Transformation Flight Plan
Broad Findings … Elements of Transformation Office of Force Transformation ü Continuing process 1 -3 ü Creating / anticipating the future ü Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology ü New competitive areas / competencies; revalued attributes ü Fundamental shifts in underlying principles ü New sources of power ü Changing behavior – values, attitudes, beliefs 4 -7
Broad Findings … Transforming the Role of Defense Office of Force Transformation National Security is more than defense • More than responsive and punitive preventative • More than stopping something keeping the world system up and running • More than the “big one” the whole spectrum of military competition • Homeland security defense in depth • Increasing globalization and national security transaction rates compel increased internationalization and civilianization of defense
Broad Findings … Transforming the Force Office of Force Transformation Last year … New this year … • More expeditionary • Lighter, more agile, easily deployable units • More networked • Knowledge-enabled warfare • Designed to leverage the exterior positions • Sustain on-call, global precision strike • Leverage increasingly persistent ISR • Persistent engagement • Tighter sensor-shooter timelines • Improved horizontal intel distribution • Value information superiority • Demand-centered intelligence • Joint interoperability at the operational level • Jointness to the tactical level • Emphasized unmanned capabilities • Substitution of capital for labor
Broad Findings …Transforming the Way of War Office of Force Transformation Intensity What’s Valued … • • Networking Sensing Envelope management Speed & maneuverability Numbers Risk tolerance Staying power New this year … Increasing the “speed of command” of a networked, distributed force contributes to more rapid force projection and engagement – – High transaction rates Increased information rate and volume Increased complexity and scale of operations Tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictable demand Alter Initial Conditions Duration
Total Force Balance … Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence All Sources of Power Domain of Cooperative Engagement Domain of Political Victory Domain of Strategic Primacy Local Stability Winning the Battle / Combat Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies Global Stability Winning the War The Commons: The Strategic Imperative High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace Hegemonic Strategies Maximum Complexity The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Land Littorals Low Altitude Domain of Military Victory
Total Force Balance … Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence All areas of power Domain of Cooperative Engagement Domain of Political Victory Domain of Strategic Primacy Global Stability Economic Dominance Technology Insertion Economic Construction Local Stability Economic Destruction Technology Denial Winning the Battle / Combat Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies Technology Sharing / Transfer Economic Access / Trade Winning the War The Commons: The Strategic Imperative High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace Hegemonic Strategies Maximum Complexity The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Littorals Low Altitude Land Domain of Military Victory
Total Force Balance …Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence Political Power Domain of Strategic Primacy Global Stability Strategic Power Space Superiority Information Superiority Dissuade Competition Domain of Political Victory Maximum Complexity Stabilization Reconstruction Political Access Local Stability Power Projection Protection Combat Access Winning the Battle / Combat Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace Hegemonic Strategies Global Deployment Patterns Strategic Posture Deter Forward Allied Interoperability The Commons: Assuring Allies The Strategic Imperative Strategic Influence Winning the War Domain of Cooperative Engagement The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Littorals Low Altitude Land Domain of Military Victory
Trends in Security Competition Office of Force Transformation Information Age • Short Cycle Time • New Competencies • Adaptive Planning • Coherently Joint • Interdependent Globalization III (1947 – 199 X) (199 X – 20 XX) • Emerging Rules • Market Opportunities • New Customer Base Emerging • Security = All Else + Defense • Developed Rules • Mature Markets • Narrowing Customer Base • Security = Defense Industrial Age • Long Cycle Time • Well Developed Tools / Processes • Deliberate Planning • Deconflicted Joint • Tortured Interoperability
Security System Balance? …Major Movements Office of Force Transformation Strategic Posture/Balance Forces forward Deploy from home Allies Operational Maneuver From forward garrison From the sea From strategic distances Deter Forward 2 d derivative force Sustaining force Constabulary/Nation-building force
Strategic Posture …Exporting security Office of Force Transformation The Red Zone… …Our Response
Top Level Issues …Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes Office of Force Transformation Citizen Soldier Volunteer (Recruited) Force Professional Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator” Projecting Power Exporting Security Event Focused Continuous Punitive Preventative Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle}
Global Trends and Implications of Exporting Security… Risk Management Special Case Office of Force Transformation Policy Choices: • Engagement Policy • Substitution of Capital for Labor • Civil Component of National Security • Allied / International Component
Transactions vs. Resources Office of Force Transformation T R A N S A C T I O N S R E S O U R C E S Anticipating Perfectly Predictable Surprises t 1 TIME t 2 t 3
The Collection – Analysis Gap …Managing the inevitable Office of Force Transformation Policy Choices: • Automate Triage • Automate Analysis • We all become analysts
The Advance to Baghdad Miles to Baghdad Office of Force Transformation Day of Conflict 1. Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications and transportation 2. Logisticians shift to “push” system – use models, Sit. Reps, to “sense” supply needs 3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill gaps
Transforming Defense … Corporate Strategy Office of Force Transformation Part I: Continuous small steps Part II: Many exploratory jumps Part III: A few big bets “If you are not making big bets you are a fixed strategic target at risk. ” Big Bets We Are Making Big Bets We Have Not Made … Yet • Joint network-centric warfare • Joint seamless machine-to-machine integration • Directed energy • Joint re-directed energy • Seabasing => Joint OMFTS • Demand-centered logistics • Demand-centered intelligence • Tactically responsive space FBB
Identify Issues of Regret … Candidates for Action Now Office of Force Transformation Warfare Elements • • • Fire – non-lethals, directed energy, redirected energy Maneuver – seabasing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver Protection – urban operations, “biomedical countermeasures” cycle time C 2&C – joint interdependency vs. interoperability ISR – demand-centered intelligence, tactically responsive space Logistics – joint demand-centered logistics Risk Management (creating on-ramps) • Joint S&T – broaden the capabilities base, create generational depth • Joint concept development & experimentation – short cycle time / rapid iteration, concept-based / technology-enabled • Joint training – live / virtual / constructive / distributed • People – culture and organizations
Approaches to Logistics Mass-Based Just-in-Time Office of Force Transformation l More is better l Mountains of stuff measured in days of supply l Uses massive inventory to hedge against uncertainty in demand supply l Mass begets mass and slows everything down Prime Metric: Days of Supply Sense and Respond Network. Centric Warfare l On-time is better l Inventory is reduced to a minimum and kept moving l Uses precise demand prediction and static optimization to purge uncertainty l Works great, except when it doesn’t Prime Metric: Flow Time Global Information Grid l Adaptive is better l Inventory is dynamically positioned throughout l Uses transportation flexibility and robust IT to handle uncertainty l Initial S&R models look promising l Supports distributed, adaptive ops Prime Metric: Speed/Quality of Effects
What’s the Behavior Telling Us? Office of Force Transformation Current Logistics Concepts (Predominant Approach) “Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain” Sense & Respond Logistics (Predominant Approach) “Adaptive, responsive demand networks” Army Stuff Joint Force Capabilities Packages Navy Stuff USAF Stuff USMC Stuff Common Stuff “Traditional. C 2” “Context & Coordination” Distributed Operations Other Stuff Sources of Stuff (Theater, CONUS, etc) Transition from linear supply chain to adaptive demand network
Operationally Responsive Space Experiment Office of Force Transformation 2 stories high 9 ft in Diameter TACSAT 1 1969 20” high 41” in Diameter TACSAT 1 2003 • Design, build, and launch operationally relevant satellite in less than 1 year • Less than $15 M including launch
Global Utilities Operational Needs Office of Force Transformation National Cost Mission Criticality Risk Capability Complexity Requirements Centralized Control Classification Competing Users Launch Challenges National Strategic Operational Tactical
Military Space “Demand Driven” Office of Force Transformation Operational Demand Driven Military Capability Autonomous Networked Decentralized Control Reduced Classification Broadened User Base Decreased Cycle Times Risk Tolerant Tactical Operational Strategic National
Relay Mirror System …The Killer App for HELs Office of Force Transformation • Attributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror System – – Extended range of engagement for air, land sea-based systems Improved engagement timeline Increased field of regard Improved battlefield standoff for manned systems • Low cost force multiplier – High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational capability for high value missions
Re-Directed Energy Office of Force Transformation • Objective: – – Re-direct laser energy beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) via airborne relay mirror system Build an experimental system compatible with the High Altitude Airship (HAA) ACTD that creates a technical means to provide indirect laser propagation geometries • Unarticulated Need: – Over horizon active defense, communication and sensing Ø Re-Direct laser energy to over-the-horizon objectives i. e. cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aircraft, artillery, and ground targets Ø Re-Direct laser energy to operational nodes within the optical communications footprint Ø Direct line image relay without optical to electronic conversion • Approach: – – The FY 05 rapid field experiments will determine the operational viability and prepare a functional surrogate to accurately redirect laser energy through the ARMS payload suspended from a crane. In FY 06 the system will be upgraded to include light weight components and higher power levels for operational effects and conduct concept-driven operational experimentation onboard a persistent low altitude airborne platform Ø High-risk components and subsystems experiments will be performed Ø A functional surrogate will be configured for the prospective HAA ACTD
Operational Maneuver From the Sea Advanced Intermodal Mobility (AIM) Office of Force Transformation
Shallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift 6000 -8700 nm, 60 -100 knots, 5000 ton payload Office of Force Transformation • Tactically Survivable: Agile maneuverability…speed / angles - Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent multi-dimensional stealth, & networked defense • Operationally Feasible: Modular missions…rapid reconfiguration - Electronic keel and support service standards & protocols, Mission-oriented mobility systems, reconfigurable payloads • Strategically Viable: Adaptable mobility…speed of response - High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo / reduce foot print ashore
Key Barriers to Transformation … challenges for the Department Office of Force Transformation • Cultural barriers – Speed of understanding vs speed of doctrine Ø Cognitive interoperability and exploitation of shared awareness – Values, attitudes and beliefs • Physical barriers – Speed of mass (lift and mobility) – Speed of information (connectivity & interoperability) • Fiscal barriers – Willingness and ability to devalue and devolve – Discretionary versus non-discretionary • Process barriers – Transformation of the management of defense (not addressed)
Key Barriers to Transformation … Example of a Cultural Change Office of Force Transformation • Large indivisible units • Smaller, modular, multifunctional units • Transformation for the future (a destination) • Transformation as a change today (a journey) • Independence • Interdependence • Transformation for a few • Transformation for everyone Cultural change is a matter of leadership
Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years Office of Force Transformation … some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites. Strongly Disagree 2000 Unsure Strongly Agree “Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, ” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons Naval War College, 2002
Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years Office of Force Transformation … some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites. Strongly Disagree 2000 2002 Unsure Strongly Agree “The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes toward the RMA, ” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons, NWC, 2003
VULNERABILITY Security Environment … Four Challenges Office of Force Transformation Irregular Higher Those seeking to erode American influence and power by employing unconventional or irregular methods (e. g. , terrorism, insurgency, civil war and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”) Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weak Vulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked Lower Traditional Those seeking to challenge American power by instigating traditional military operations with legacy and advanced military capabilities (e. g. , conventional air, sea and land forces and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers) Likelihood: decreasing (absent preemption) due to historic capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative lead Lower Vulnerability: low, only if transformation is balanced Catastrophic Those seeking to paralyze American leadership & power by employing WMD or WMD-like effects in unwarned attacks on symbolic, critical or other high-value targets (e. g. , 9/11, terrorist use of WMD, rogue missile attack) Likelihood: moderate and increasing Vulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter American way of life Disruptive Higher Those seeking to usurp American power and influence by acquiring breakthrough capabilities (e. g. , sensors, information, biotechnology, miniaturization on the molecular level, cyber-operations, space, directed-energy and other emerging fields) Likelihood: Low, but time works against U. S. Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts American security at risk LIKELIHOOD No hard boundaries distinguishing one category from another
Transforming the Transformation … Perfectly Predictable Surprises Office of Force Transformation • Balance prime metrics force building between “Traditional, ” “Irregular, ” “Catastrophic” and “Disruptive” • Civilianization of defense Create a strategic approach • Internationalization of defense Align grand strategy with global dynamics • “Buy to cost” vice “buy to budget” • Rationalize information activities management Establish CIO as single acquisition authority and strategist Create “global consortium for the grid” • Achieve demand-centered joint intelligence “Popularize” social intelligence Establish info-mediaries “Mechanize” horizontal integration Cost is a strategy (both cost of war and program cost) • Extend joint logistics to the tactical level of war Create cost-suppressing strategies Organize around the battlefield, not Transformation in non-discretionary areas around the supplier • Create strategic hedges against cataclysm
Conclusions … achievements and challenges for the Department Office of Force Transformation • If executed, Roadmaps yield a highly capable, reasonably balanced force evolving over time – Within a predictable range they provide broader options for the President • Areas of current advantage will be sustained – Some will be subject to sharply increased competition, e. g. cyberspace, space • Roadmaps did not address economies of defense – Without transformation, costs of acquisition and ownership are not sustainable – Choices were made, but divestiture and devolution strategies were not addressed – Costs of future combat were not addressed • Roadmaps do not address hedging strategies against plausible cataclysms • Roadmaps indicate the need for transformation of the management of common functions -- paradoxically where we have great advantage – Joint information systems and activities – Joint intelligence – Joint logistics – Joint S&T
Elements of Transformation Office of Force Transformation Continuing process Creating/anticipating the future Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations, and technology New competitive areas/competencies; revalued attributes Fundamental shifts in underlying principles New sources of power Changing behavior – values, attitudes, beliefs
Transformation Office of Force Transformation Down at the grange they’re teachin’ a new way of plowin’ Ya’ goin’? Nope! I already don’t plow as good as I know how. . . www. oft. osd. mil
Office of Force Transformation Q&A
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