Sectarianism Middle East Cold War 1979 Sectarianizing the

� Sectarianism Middle East Cold War � 1979 ---

Sectarianizing the Middle East � � 1979 Islamic Revolution shifts the paradigm away from the Arab Cold War, to the Middle East Cold War Religious identity becomes the principle driver of conflict Alliances based on common enemies and common interests Religion as a political tool

SHI’ITE � � � Followers of Ali 10 -13% of Muslims 11 -14% in the Middle East-North Africa region Around 70% of Shias live in Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq. Major Sects: Imami, Ismaili, Zaydi SUNNI � � � Sunnah, example of the Prophet Around 85% of Muslims Divided among 4 major and 1 minor schools of legal thought. Hanafi, Shafii, Malaki, Hanbali, Zahiri

So What’s The Problem? Can’t We All Just Get Along?

Why Not?

Disagreement over the right of succession to the Prophet

Sunni Belief � � Muhammad died without appointing a successor companions gathered and elected Abu Bakr, Muhammad's father-in-law, as the first Caliph should be democratically chosen After the Rashidun (first four Caliphs) hereditary dynastic rule practiced

Shi’ite Belief on Succession � � � God chose Ali to be Muhammad's successor Ali was Muhammad's cousin and closest living male relative as well as his son-in-law, married to Muhammad's daughter Fatimah The Farewell Pilgrimage Shia believe Mohammed appointed Ali caliph

Caliphate

Sunni/ Shi’ite

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Cold War Blocs � � � Revolutionary Bloc Led by Iran (Russian Support) � � � Status Quo Bloc Led by Saudi Arabia (US Support)

SAUDI FRIENDS � � � � Salafi anti al Assad groups Yemen ousted Government Bahrain Government Iraqi Sunni Jordan Gulf States Egypt IRAN FRIENDS � � � � � Shia in Afghanistan and Pakistan Bashar al Assad Bahrain Shia militias Iraq Shia clerics Iraqi government Hezbollah Houthi Shia Iraqi Kurds Qatar?

United States � � US – Saudi relations formalized in 1933 based originally on oil interests and later mutual opposition to communism then post revolution Iran US has played a major role in Saudi/ Gulf security

Russia � � � Instrumental in the survival of the al Assad government Close economic and security ties with Iran Naval and Air bases in Syria

Shia Crescent Iraq War 2003 � “If pro-Iranian parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government a new crescent of dominant Shia movements or governments stretching from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could emerge. ” King Abdullah II

Iraq 2003 Shifting the Balance � � Saddam Hussein as a regional stabilizer, limiting the hegemonic ambitions of Saudi and Iran through non-alignment 2003 invasion changed MECW dynamics

Lebanon Civil War 1975 - 1990 � � � Fighting Began between Maronite Christians and factions of the PLO. Following Black September (1970) PLO had been permitted to establish a semiautonomous presence in the country This unbalanced the fragile demographics

Confessionalism Lebanese Parliament � � � � Confession Before Maronite Catholic 30 Eastern Orthodox 11 Melkite Catholic 6 Armenian Orthodox 4 Armenian Catholic 1 Protestant 1 Other Christian Minorities 1 Total Christians 54 Sunni 20 Shi'ite 19 Alawite 0 Druze 6 Total Muslims + Druze 45 Total 99 Taif 34 14 8 5 1 1 1 64 27 27 2 8 64 128 After Taif

Hezbollah � � � Created in 1985 in response to the 1982 Israel occupation of south Lebanon Trained and funded by IRGC as a militia group Operates as militant organisation, resistance movement, political party and provider of social services similar to Hamas

Contemporary Proxy Conflicts � � Syria/ Iraq Yemen Libya Afghanistan

Houthi "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam � � Formed in the 1990 s as a political religious group challenging protecting minority Zaidi in Yemen Began an insurgency in 2004 eventually Successfully ousting al Salah after 35 years in power and his successor al Hadi Now control large parts of Yemen Receive material and training from Iran

Shia Militias Iraq � � � Hashad al Shaabi, the Popular Mobilization Forces legitimized through a fatwa by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Units have a variety of loyalties; Sistani, the government, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iran Instrumental in challenging DAESH Perceived as problematic to normal Iraq sovereignty Recently legalized by Iraq Parliament