SEBstudies in Germany Thomas Schuhmacher DWD Content Current
SEB-studies in Germany Thomas Schuhmacher, DWD
Content Ø Current stage of proceeding of DWD SEB-study on the value of meteorological information for the energy revolution Ø valuation of forest fire warning index in Germany SEB Workshop – 06/2015 2
DWD SEB-study Basic information Topic: the value of meteorological products and services for the energy revolution Special tasks: research on the value chain comparison of products (DWD and private providers) Structure: Topic 1: formulation of a conecpt note Topic 2: realization of the study Length: 12 -15 month SEB Workshop – 06/2015 3
DWD SEB-study Current stage of proceeding Ø Contract for realisation of the study is awarded to a German company named adelphi research Gmb. H (www. adelphi. de) Ø adelphi is a think tank for policy analysis and strategy consulting Ø adelphi offers solutions and services regarding global environment and development challenges for policy, business, and civil society communities. Ø kick-off meeting: July 13 SEB Workshop – 06/2015 4
Value of forest fire danger index Basic information on forest fires in Germany Ø average number of forest fires per year: 1160 Ø average area burned per year: 740 ha Ø reasons forest fires 22 % fire raising 24 % negligence 9 % other 4 % natural 41 % unknown SEB Workshop – 06/2015 5
Value of forest fire danger index Basic information on forest fire danger index Ø from March to October forest fire danger forecasts (4 days) for Germany Ø index from 1 (=very little danger) to 5 (=very high danger) SEB Workshop – 06/2015 6
Value of forest fire danger index Socioeconomic benefits of forest fire danger index customers actions benefits SEB Workshop – 06/2015 7
Value of forest fire danger index damage caused by forest fires in Germany = value of the loss of wood + reforestation costs (9. 000 €/ha) + extinguishing costs (~ 3. 000 €/ha) (+ loss of (bio-)diversity) (+ risk of death) SEB Workshop – 06/2015 8
Value of forest fire danger index Damage caused by forest fires in Germany (2009 -2013) SEB Workshop – 06/2015 9
Value of forest fire danger index Application: Value of warning system in Bavaria SEB Workshop – 06/2015 10
Value of forest fire danger index Method 1: natural experiment Ø estimation of damage with and without forest fire warning system (=benefit) Ø damage with warning system (2011): 1. 200. 000 € Ø estimation that damage without warning system depends on additional forest burned without control flights (2011): SEB Workshop – 06/2015 11
Value of forest fire danger index Method 1: natural experiment Ø costs (2011): • Bavarian forest authorities (+ control flights): 117. 000 € • German Meteorological Office: ~ 3. 000 € • total costs: ~ 120. 000 € SEB Workshop – 06/2015 12
Value of forest fire danger index Method 2: cost-loss approach Ø costs of control flights in Bavaria = 290 €/flight Ø control flights with an forest fire danger index 4 or 5 Ø additional damage without control flights: 0, 4 hectares (~10. 550 €) Ø benefits of control flights in 2011 for Bavaria ~ 50. 000 € Control flights/forest fires in 2011: Expenses (€): SEB Workshop – 06/2015 13
Contact Diplom-Volkswirt Thomas Schuhmacher Deutscher Wetterdienst Regionale Messnetzgruppe München Helene-Weber-Allee 21 80637 München mail: thomas. schuhmacher@dwd. de fon: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9240 fax: +49 (0) 69 / 8062 -9292 SEB Workshop – 06/2015 14
- Slides: 14