Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Impacts on
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Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Impacts on Stormwater Management Facilities in South Florida Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact RCAP Stormwater Workshop January 22, 2015 Frank E. Marshall, Ph. D PE Frank Marshall Engineering, PL New Smyrna Beach, FL
What is Sea Level Rise (SLR)? SLR is an increasing trend in the average elevation of the surface of the world’s oceans The two main mechanisms are: thermal expansion of ocean water (no additional water mass) melting of major stores of land ice like glaciers and ice sheets (additional water mass) Key West Tide Gage - 365 Day Average – 1965 - 2005 SLR is one of several lines of evidence supporting the hypothesis that the global climate has recently warmed 0. 2 ft above MSL 0. 1 0 -0. 1 -0. 2 -0. 3 c De em c be De em r-6 c be 5 De em r-6 c be 7 De em r-6 c be 9 De em r-7 c be 1 De em r-7 c be 3 De em r-7 c be 5 De em r-7 c be 7 De em r-7 c be 9 De em r-8 c be 1 De em r-8 c be 3 De em r-8 c be 5 De em r-8 c be 7 De em r-8 c be 9 De em r-9 c be 1 De em r-9 c be 3 De em r-9 c be 5 De em r-9 c be 7 De em r-9 c be 9 De em r-0 ce ber 1 m -0 be 3 r 05 -0. 4 De
Scenario High Intermediate Low m above 1992 elevation 2 1. 2 0. 5 0. 2 ft above 1992 elevation 6. 6 3. 9 1. 6 0. 7 From: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1, 2012 From IPCC 2013 Three Global SLR Estimates
Local SLR Projections From Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact
What is Climate Change? A significant and lasting change in the average and range of weather conditions over the last 50 -100 years First recorded usage of term is fairly recent, 1980 -85 Primarily related to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature - 2014 warmest on record Includes changes in global or regional climate patterns, particular rainfall and evaporation A subject that has largely been ignored by politicians, except in South Florida
Expected Changes to Sea Level and Climate in South Florida by 2050 from SFWMD (2011) and Regional Climate Change Compact (2011) SLR: 6 -17 inches higher Temperature – increase of 1 – 2 degrees C Rainfall - +/- 5%, -3 to +2 inches more heavy precipitation increase Evaporation / transpiration – 3 – 6 inches higher in frequency and duration of dry spells uncertainty in evaporation changes Tropical Storms – fewer but more powerful storms
Why is Southeast Florida So Vulnerable to SLR and Climate Change? Long shoreline = high exposure to SLR effects Relatively low elevation of landscape The largest number of people, dwellings, and infrastructure in the coastal region of US Presence of regional water management system that provides conduit for inland connectivity High groundwater levels and porous substrate Numerous drainage wells
What are Potential Impacts of SLR and CC to Stormwater Management Facility Functions? Increase in groundwater levels will reduce efficiency of French drains/ exfiltration trenches Reduction of infiltration and soil storage capacity Increased runoff Reduction of discharge capacity of outfalls Drainage wells that become artesian Brackish water entering system from seawall overtopping
Recommendations for Stormwater Management Related to SLR and CC Sustainability Planning: SP-2, SP-3, SP-4, SP-5, SP-6, SP-7, SP 10, SP-12 Water Supply: WS-4, WS-12, WS-17 Regional Resilience RR-1, RR-6, RR-7 Public Outreach: PO-6, PO-10 Public Policy: PP-1 17 recommendations out of 110 total
How Do You Assess Stormwater Management Infrastructure Vulnerability? Perform a vulnerability analysis - See Dr. Nancy Gassman presentation (following) Prepare or upgrade stormwater master plan – use stormwater utility funding The areas affected by SLR will primarily be: areas adjacent to the coast areas affected by storm surge areas with elevations less than ~12 ft NGVD 29 or ~10 ft NAVD 88 areas with drainage wells areas with French drains or exfiltration trenches areas with direct connection to C&SF Project Assessment must include hydrologic drivers affected by climate change rainfall evaporation occurrence and strength of tropical storm activity and extreme events
Example of SLR / CC Assessment Approach Step 1 – Characterize site or region using field data, existing maps, topography (LIDAR), aerial maps/Google Earth, and infrastructure inventories Step 2 – Identify potentially vulnerable areas Step 3, two parts – assemble data: For SLR, use local tide, Key West, or other long-term tide data; use regression models as-needed; include appropriate increases and storm surge estimates For climate change use: existing hydrologic data (weather records) with appropriate increases/decreases tropical storm data, including storm surge climate indices Step 4 – Evaluate and analyze the accumulated information Step 5 -Formulate an appropriate engineering response Step 6 – Present the results in stormwater master plan and to decision-makers
Assessment Matrix from Florida Bay SLR / Climate Change Assessment SLR Effects From Marshall, Cosby, and Nuttle (2014) for Everglades national Park Climate Change Effects
How Should Results be Presented? Stop Light Format is Proven Method to Get Message Across to Decision-makers Indicator Condition presence of built environment dune condition berm sea turtle nests no built environment present continuous undisturbed vegetated dune with back-dune hammock present Fair (slightly disturbed, mostly functional habitat) built environment, if present, well back from beachfront, behind a full dune system continuous undisturbed vegetated dune with impacted back -dune hammock wide berm unless beach is naturally narrow measures needed occasionally to protect sea turtle nest left in situ Poor (moderately disturbed, contains functional habitat and/or limited human function built environment is directly behind partial dune system, seawalls may be present back of dune vegetated dune present but slightly impacted and may not be fully developed; no back dune berm, wide enough for sunbathing and passive beach recreation measures needed each season to protect sea turtle nest left in situ Good (relatively pristine) value for lowcost shore protection access very good access with restrooms for general public, no crime issues natural berm in front of natural dune formation sea turtle nest left in situ because of no threats natural beach protecting personal property with no intervention required shore protection provided back of beachfront with limited or no disturbance of beach for protection purposes; no seawalls limited access or small number of parking spaces, public restrooms available, limited crime issues shore protection measures (nourishment) needed in past and may be needed in future poor access (ex: limited parking) and/or no public restrooms, crime issues documented human health issues level of passive and active recreational use beach-related jobs never mostly passive use such as swimming, sunbathing, walking, fishing, etc. with some limited active use beach is used for research, conservationeducation, or touristpromotion jobs occasional reasonable opportunity for passive recreation with limited active recreational opportunities jobs are available related to off-beach activities recurring no or limited passive recreational opportunities; poor opportunities for active recreational use no or limited job opportunities related to beach activities From Marshall, Banks, and Cook. 2014. Ecological Indicators 44 (2014) 81– 91
Stormwater Management Opportunities Local Example: City of Delray Beach Marina Historic District ‘King’ high tide Nov 2014 Sustainability Officer and SLR Task Force on-board In early phases of getting a handle on vulnerability On the highest tides flooding already occurs in lowest areas Areas with a direct connection to the ocean or ICW Areas adjacent to ICW where overtopping of seawall can occur – ex: Marine Way Opportunities for adaptation: Atlantic Crossing – large private redevelopment project - opportunity for private/public partnership in an area susceptible to flooding - excellent opportunity to use LIDS (see talks this afternoon) Veterans Park – Excellent opportunity to promote demonstration of climate-change resistant stormwater management practices Marina Historic District – street floods frequently, narrow R/W, low elevations, City/resident cooperation is needed
Local Example: City of Ft Lauderdale SLR / Climate Change Initiatives Significant issues: Low elevation areas Areas influenced by tide Private seawalls below Building Code elevation Water coming from western areas outside of City Additional impervious areas being added to existing development Hard to address water quality issues associated with pumping Solutions: installing/constructing bio-swales and flap valves on City facilities, upgrading design storm for new development (requires more on -site storage) City-wide model of stormwater systems being developed Opportunity: River Oaks Preserve – 13 acres, natural vegetation, water storage and water quality benefits
Local Example: Village of Wellington Demonstration project by Streamline Technologies, Inc. Wellington is west of Atlantic Coastal ridge Drainage actively pumped into C-51 regional system canal Initial modeling objectives 100 -Year Flood Levels Levee Breach Analysis Additional SLR/CC analysis investigated increased GWT ICPR-4: engineering model groundwater layer 1 -d and 2 -d surface features Sea Level Rise is incorporated into boundary conditions Climate change is incorporated into precipitation and ET Model can be applied throughout 4 -county area Model Extents WCA 1 Simulated Levee Breach Location Pumped Drainage to C-51
Initial GWT: 12’ NGVD 29 Initial GWT: 13’ NGVD 29 Simulation Hour 56 Impact: Inundation Occurs Several Hours Sooner with a Higher Initial Water Table
Local Example: Miami Beach Bad press forced action – South Beach, for example Existing drainage wells go artesian on highest tides Insurance companies are concerned about flooding Primary level of service – maintain property values A number of large pump stations already installed 2 South Beach pump stations were brought on-line for 2014 ‘King’ tide – successful operation 50 -70 pump stations ultimately Price tag on order of $300 million + FDOT also involved See Bruce Mowry presentation in afternoon
Final Thought for Stormwater Infrastructure Assessments in South Florida Be aware of elevation datum – NGVD 29 or NAVD 88? There is 1. 2 – 1. 5 ft difference on east coast of Florida Older survey and inventory data are NGVD 29 More recent information is NAVD 88 Very, very important
Summary and Conclusions Sea level rise (SLR) and climate change are occurring and on the radar screen in South Florida SLR ~ 9 – 24 inches by 2060 Temperature – increase of 1 – 2 degrees C Rainfall - +/- 5%, -3 to +2 inches more heavy precipitation increase in frequency and duration of dry spells Evaporation higher Tropical / transpiration – 3 – 6 inches uncertainty in evaporation changes Storms – Higher potential for strong storm development; fewer but more powerful storms
Summary and Conclusions South Florida stormwater infrastructure is highly vulnerable to the effects of SLR and climate change The 4 -County Compact: effectively assisting communities in assessing the effects of SLR and CC on stormwater infrastructure A stormwater system vulnerability assessment should be a part of the sustainability program for all South Florida governments How to implement? Upgrade/update stormwater master plans Have I mentioned datum?
Thank You! Frank Marshall Engineering, PL New Smyrna Beach, FL 386. 451. 9381 clfinc@earthlink. net
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