Sea Level Rise an unambiguous consequence of a
Sea Level Rise an unambiguous consequence of a warming climate Lee-Lueng Fu
Causes of Sea Level Rise addition of heat addition of freshwater + Total sea level rise = Present day sea level rise = 1/3 thermal expansion + 1/3 melting of mountain glaciers + 1/3 melting of ice on Greenland Antarctica
Historic Sea Level Rise 120 years 9000 years r m/y m. 0 ~2 1 cm /yr mm/yr 5 2. 0 ~ Recent rates of sea level rise are 10 times larger than historic rates. Plots by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art: http: //www. globalwarmingart. com/
Sea Level Rise: a present and imminent impact of climate change 3. 2 mm/year 2. 0 mm/year 0. 8 mm/year ~ 8 inches (20 cm) Average Rate ~ 1. 8 mm/year [Church and White, 2006]
Satellite Observations
Global Mean Contribution from Thermal Expansion 48 mm 16 mm
![Earth Surface Mass Change Measured From Satellites (2002 -2009) [Wahr, 2009]](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/e2e8675c59e1baf9bb9da55082883eff/image-7.jpg "Earth Surface Mass Change Measured From Satellites (2002 -2009) [Wahr, 2009]")
Earth Surface Mass Change Measured From Satellites (2002 -2009) [Wahr, 2009]
Greenland Mass Change April, 2002 – February, 2009 Total Greenland ice volume Rate of mass change: -235 Gton/yr = 0. 65 mm/yr sea level rise [Wahr, 2009]
Antarctica Mass Change April, 2002 – February, 2009 All Antarctica: -169 Gton/yr = 0. 47 mm/yr sea level rise [Wahr, 2009]
Projection of future sea level A conservative estimate without considering the instability of the polar ice sheets Rahmstorf, 2007
The last time the Arctic was 3 to 5°C warmer than present, global sea level was 4 to 6 meters higher than present Today 125, 000 years ago Image from Bette Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Sea level change after melting of ice from the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet A global average of 3. 2 m, but the highest is around the US Bamber et al, 2009
Coastal Impacts 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast!
Grand challenges for climate science and civil engineering in the coming decades: • Prediction of the rise of sea level and its spatial patterns • Development of adaption approach (worldwide change of coastlines; coastal urban planning/relocation, coastal resources management, etc)
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