Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion Business
Scottish Institute For Policing Research Alan Motion, Business Manager Government Services University of Dundee, 21 st June 2011 © Crown copyright Met Office
Time To Adapt? Climate Impact Risk Framework © Crown copyright Met Office
Context – Fluvial Flood Risk Fluvial flood risk: % change in global flood risk Had. CM 3 climate model pattern © Crown copyright Met Office
Defining Risk • “risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period…” UNDP • “commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence” UKCIP • “Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence” IPCC • We assume Risk is a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability Hazard is a combination of the magnitude of an event and the likelihood of it occurring Vulnerability is a combination of a given systems exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity
Adaptation
STEP 1 – REQUIREMENTS Aim: To clearly identify the needs and objectives and the extent of the project, including the required outcomes and expectations.
STEP 2 –Scoping Aim: To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements.
STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.
STEP 4 – FUTURE CLIMATE RISK Aim: To assess in detail how the key risks identified in step 1 are likely to change in the future.
UKCP 09 Data Three different emission scenarios Seven different timeframes 25 km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions
STEP 5 – ADAPTATION OPTIONS Aim: To explore potential adaptation options associated with the key risks.
STEP 6 – OUTCOME COMMUNICATION Aim: To communicate the project results and outcomes.
STEP 7 – REVIEW, MONITOR AND UPDATE Aim: To review that the assessment has met the requirements owner/client, and identify future steps to be taken
Very briefly: West Midlands FRS Case Study • Climate Impact & Risk assessment Framework (CIRF) • 2 risks • Surface water flooding (pluvial) • Vegetation-related secondary fires • Risk change for 2050’s using medium-high emission scenario • WMFS provided: • 10 year’s worth data • 500, 000 incidents
Basements Susceptibility to surface water flooding Population >65 years Blocks of flats Land cover Rainfall days 1 -10 mm Rainfall days 11 -20 mm Rainfall days >20 mm Hazard Population density Vulnerability Hazards and Vulnerability
Residual risk (after removing population density) Areas with a higher incident count than explained by population density Areas with a lower incident count than explained by population density
Headline Outcomes? • Strategic Deployment • Hazard related • Right place, right time • Change management • What do we need? • Where do we need it? • When? • Support to business case for change
- Slides: 17