Science Infusion Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts Warnings

Science Infusion Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings 1

NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed - A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners… Two Main Program Areas… Experimental Warning Program Experimental Forecast Program 2

Establishing the “Culture of Collaboration” A glance at pioneering Collaborative Projects between NSSL and WFO-OUN…the incipient EWP branch of the HWT Late ’ 70 s 1985 Early algorithms JDOP 1989 DOPLIGHT 1994 -95 1996 1997 2001 + MAPS, COPS, QED, Pre-STORM Pre-AWIPS NEXRAD IOT&E II VORTEX WDSS AWIPS WDSS II, JPOL, COMET, IHOP, Dual Pol, TIMEX, STEPS, PAR, SHAVE, Prob. Warn 3

Arrival of the SPC… Spring Experiments… The EFP branch of the HWT SPC Arrives…Spring Experiments begin… 1997 2000 - 2001 Winter Weather Experiment Convective parameterization SE SE SE 2002 2003 2004 - 2005 2006 2007 - 2008 IHOP forecasting support Mesoscale Ensembles Convection. Allowing WRF model forecasts Convection. Allowing ensembles 4

The annual Spring Experiment • A 6 -8 week experiment conducted each spring to evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment …Scenes from SE 2008… 5

HWT-EFP Spring Experiment 2007 Participating Institutions: NOAA Agencies - NCEP/AWC (2) - NCEP/EMC (3) - NCEP/HPC - NCEP/SPC (9) - NWS/BTV - NWS/LWX - NWS/MAF - NWS/OCWWS - NWS/OUN - NWS/RAP - NWS/SLC - NWS/SRH - OAR/NSSL (5) - OAR/GSD (3) - OAR/PSD Universities Gov’t Agencies - Albany-SUNY (2) - Arizona (2) - Colorado State - Iowa State - North Carolina State (4) - Oklahoma (2) - Penn State - Purdue (2) - UNC-Charlotte - York (Ontario) - NCAR (5) - Environ. Canada (6) - UK Met Office - USRA (Huntsville) Private Sector - Merrill Lynch - First. Energy 6 6

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… : What do Forecasters need? 7

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… : Perform research, communicate results… 8

Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… : NCEP operational forecast NSSL parallel experimental forecast e. g. , Transfer technology… 9

Establishing a “grass-roots” infusion paradigm… Publish results… At least 24 NSSL-SPC coauthored, refereed publications since 2000 10

Tangible Operational Impacts 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Tornadic Supercells Observed Base Reflectivity “The WRF-NMM 4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required. ” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 11

2000 2005 Questions? ? 2001 2003 2007 2002 2004 2008 12