Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Sam Contorno NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

Winter Weather Services Team Composition • Sam Contorno – NWS/OST • Paul Sisson – NWS/WFO BTV • Mark Tew – NWS/OCCWS • Jeff Waldstreicher – NWS/ER • Marty Ralph – OAR/ETL • Peter Manousos – NWS/NCEP/HPC • Jack Dostalek – NESDIS/CIRA • Allen White – OAR/ETL • John Cortinas – OAR/NSSL/CIMMS • Paul Neiman – OAR/ETL • Andy Edman – NWS/WR SSD • Paul Stokols – NWS/OCCWS

Winter Weather Services Vision / Benefits Vision • Winter Storm Warning Lead Time > 24 Hrs • Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days • Large Winter Storms Result in Losses of $Billions and Influences Regional/National Economy. • Better Information = Better Decisions by Public Prior to Arrival of Inclement Wx • $ Millions in Savings for Public Works & Transportation Sector

Winter Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA Performance Measure FY 01 Skill FY 07 Goal FY 12 Target Winter Storm Warning Lead Time 13 Hours 15 Hours 20 Hours Winter Storm Warning POD 90% Low Risk 90% 94% High Risk Proposed Performance FY 01 Skill FY 07 Target FY 12 Target Measure Winter Storm Warning FAR On Track 27% 26% 23%

Winter Weather Key Information Gaps • More Accurate Cyclone Track: More Precise Position of Precipitation Cutoff and Rain/Snow Line/Snow Level • Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft • Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty • More Accurate Identification of Precipitation Type, Cloud Microphysical Info, and Vertical Distribution of Moisture • More Accurate Identification of Mesoscale Snow Bands and Orographic Effects

Winter Weather Key S&T Solutions Gap Solution More Accurate Cyclone • Advanced GFS/8 km WRF Track; Rain/Snow Line; • Adv Data Assim/Sat Upgrades Snow Level • Dual Polarization • Profiler Snow-level Detection Impact 8 km WRF: Rain/Snow Line Resolved within 30 km (50 km today) Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft • Targeted Observations • Coastal and Buoy Profilers • Satellite Upgrades Improved NWP; Improved Winter Storm Warning Lead Time and POD Probabilistic; Range of Uncertainties • • • Weather-Climate Connection Advanced Ensembles Advanced Data Assimilation Increased Certainty and Consistency of Forecasts; Longer Range Forecasts ID of Precipitation Type, Microphysical Info, Vertical Distribution of Moisture • Dual Polarization • GPS, MDCRS, Satellite Upgrades • Decision Assistance Tools (e. g. , Improved Precip Type Algorithm) • Cloud Microphysics Schemes Better, Precise Forecasts of Precip Type/Amount More Accurate Monitoring of Meso Snow Bands and Orographic Effects • Meso Snow. Band Technique • Improved Understanding of Physical Processes Finer-Scale Forecasts of Heavy Snow/Icing

Winter Weather Key S&T Solutions Current Programmatic Phase Targeted Obs. Dual Polarization Observations MDCRS-WVSS 2 GPS-IPW Satellite Upgrades Deployment DA/Models SR Ensembles 8 km WRF* GFS Advanced Ensembles Weather-Climate Connection Forecast Techniques OTE Meso Snowband Technique DTE Snow Level Detection Algorithm R&D Precip Type Algorithms* Weather Event Simulator Training Winter Weather & NWP PDS 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Winter Weather Outstanding R&D Needs • Develop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different Precipitation Types/Measure Snow Depth • Develop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts of Severity of Large-Scale Winter Storms • Improve Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes that Lead to Heavy Winter Precipitation Events • Improve Understanding of Orographic Effects on Mesoscale Distribution of Winter Precipitation • Develop Artificial Intelligence Systems to Forecast Snowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant Icing • Develop Improved Collaborative Forecast Tools • Develop Improved Verification Procedures

Winter Weather Summary Vision Increasing Performance Lead Times > 24 Hrs; Prob. Guidance 10 Days R&D Needs • Precipitation Type Sensors • Deploy High Resolution, More Accurate Models • Enhance Decision Assistance Tools • Expand Targeted Observations • Probabilistic Forecast Techniques • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Deploy Dual Polarization/Satellite Upgrades • Artificial Intelligence to Detect Heavy Snowbands • Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes Continuous Training 2002 2007 2012

Back-up Information

Primary Customers/Partners • General Public • Emergency Managers • Federal/State/Local Governments • Transportation Industries • International Interests • Educational Organizations/Institutions of Higher Learning • Media • Private Sector Weather Forecasters

Key Products/Services • Winter Weather Watches/Warnings • Zone Forecasts • Winter Weather Advisories/Outlooks • Public Information Statements • Heavy Snow/Icing Discussions • Probabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing Forecasts • Short-term (1 -6 h) Winter Weather Discussion

Profiler Snow-Level Detection Snow Advisory raised to Winter Storm Warning Prototype profiler snow-level product showed 2700 ft snow level at the coast, 1300 ft lower than the snow level that had been predicted before landfall. NWS’ Portland OR SOO (Bill Schneider) upgraded earlier Snow Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning based on this lower snow level and passes being at 4000 ft. Forecaster’s use of these data increased warning lead time by 15 h in this case and increased POD by avoiding a miss. Predicted snow level