Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

Outline • Team Composition • Vision/Benefits • Goals/Targets • Key Gaps • Key Decisions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

Air Quality Forecasting Tiger Team Composition • Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR) • Paula Davidson* (NWS/OST) • Paul Stokols* (NWS/OCWWS) • Ralph Petersen* (NWS/NCEP) • James Meagher* (OAR) • Richard Artz* (OAR) • William Stockwell* (OAR) • James O’Sullivan (OAR) • Roger Pierce (OAR) • James Lee (NWS/OCWWS) • Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST) • Ken Schere (OAR/EPA) • (NESDIS)

Air Quality Forecasting Vision / Benefits • • • Current NWS forecasting does not include AQ High societal costs of poor AQ Capabilities ready for transition Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property REDUCE loss of life, health and property from poor air quality >60, 000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter ~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution ~ $2. 4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ozone

Air Quality Forecasting Goals/Targets to FY 12 Performance Measure: Existing GPRA Current Skill FY 07 Goal FY 12 Target Proposed Products IOC FY 07 Target FY 12 Target Ozone forecasts 1 -day forecasts: New England Extend to other elements: PM 1 -day categorical Extend to day 2 forecasts for the and beyond Nation RTT&E, day-1, NE Nationwide capability, 2 -day

Air Quality Forecasting Key Gaps: Questions for IOC Planning • Roles of Partners: public and private? • Best use of observations? • Optimum configuration for accuracy/efficiency of AQ models? • Alternative concepts of operation? • Estimates for schedule/resources?

NOAA AQFP Timeline* *integrated with WRF schedule Current and Projected Funding ($M) OAR 3. 0 NWS 3. 0 3. 0 Research/Prototype Pre-Operational Development Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E) Operational 1 -day PM 1 -day O 3 FY 02 V/V meth 1 -day O 3: IOC O 3: NE NE NE 03 04 05 1 -day PM extend to EUS 06 1 -day PM 1 -day O 3: Nation 07

NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points: IOC in FY 04 1. Verification and Validation 2. Select O 3 module for FY 04 RTT&E a) 3. Select modules for FY 03 development/testing Define Forecaster Role a) Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY 03 4. Select IT architecture design 5. Define forecast products 6. Evaluate air chemistry obs needs 7. Approve O 3 module for operational use

NOAA AQFP: Proposed Concepts of Operations PARTNERS and END USERS Fed. /State Forecasts Private/Public NCDC Obs. Forecaster Role ? ? ? NWP A. B. C. D. “Hands Off” Central Desk WFOs B+C Archive NDFD

NOAA AQF Next Steps For September 2002 • Refine/Validate Timeline • Key Decision Points – Responsibility, Criteria approval – Obtain computing resources estimates – Refine deliverables, resource estimates • Finalize EPA-NOAA MOU Next 6 months • Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+ – Define customer requirements – Define deliverables, resource estimates • Monthly Meetings

Air Quality Forecasting Outstanding R&D Needs • What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations forecasting? • Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite? • What is the best approach for V&V? • What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction? • What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?