Science and its Development Observation Regularity Verification Induction

Science and its Development

Observation Regularity Verification Induction Hypothesis Reinforcement + + Observation +Observation + + Observation

How to distinguish between science and bogus science? General theory of relativity. Einstein • Does not explain everything in the field of knowledge • Criteria for rebuttal exist The Historical Theory- Marx Psychoanalysis- Freud Psychology- Adler Explaining everything in their field of knowledge. No criteria for rebuttal The searchfor verification is easy on the assumption that is sought. The challenge: Searching for reinforcement which is a result of a forecast involving risk.

Induction is not valid (Hume) Science is created in a non-inductive process Deduction Science= Belief

Problem Rebuttal Hypothesis Criteria for Rebuttal Experiments and Observations Deduction

Preconceived opinions and firmly based viewpoints are conditions for success in the sciences (Deduction). There are two characteristics of scientific development: º Unprecedented achievement, which attracts a group of followers. º Open ends to this achievement, presenting problems to be solved by the group. Paradigm

scientific development Paradigm Reinforcement, Improvement Control A competing paradigm A community Community education (Scientific Work)

Scientific Progress According to Peter Galison's Approach. Application to Political Science Shmuel Grimland. November 2003

• • • Background and introduction Methodology Scientific progress according to P. Galison. A demonstration of progress in political science Summary Appendix- Complexity

Background and introduction • Link to previous presentation- "Scientific Development" • Peter Galison's approach • Use of new mathematical tools: -The game theory -The chaos theory -Systems which develop and organize themselves.

Methodology • • • Quality orientation Applying tools from a different scientific area. Sources of the work

Scientific Progress According to P. Galison • Who is Peter Galison? • Principles of the approach: -Encouraged by the development of tools and approaches -The concept of the "trade zone" -Image and logic • The combined approach Private theory of relativity, cosmology, molecular biology (Double Helix)

Demonstration of Progress in Political Science Based on an article by Gunguz Gungor, "The Nonlinear and Scaled Growth of the Ottoman and Roman Empires“ • The growth of a system • Exponential growth • The expansion of the Ottoman and Roman empires

The Expansion of Empire Lands

The Expansion of the Roman Empire

Summary • There is no fundamental difference between the approach of Kuhn and that of Galison • It is a matter of emphases • New directions

Appendix (Complexity) • Lexicon : http: //www. psych. lse. ac. uk: 16080/comple xity/lexicon. htm • Book: : ”Dynamics of Complex Systems” http: //www. necsi. org/publications/dcs/index. html • Website: : http: //www. necsi. org/index. html http: //www. santafe. edu/index. html