Scenarios of ODSs and O Guus Velders 1

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Scenarios of ODSs and O Guus Velders 1 02 May 2011

Scenarios of ODSs and O Guus Velders 1 02 May 2011

Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010 ● A focus on information and options for

Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010 ● A focus on information and options for policymakers: – – – Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100 Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs Impacts of other human activities Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements World avoided scenarios ● Ozone impacts and climate impacts ● Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others 2 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

World avoided for ozone layer ● Montreal Protocol is working – Large increases in

World avoided for ozone layer ● Montreal Protocol is working – Large increases in mixing ratios prevented – Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator – Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented – Increase in adverse effects prevented 3 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

World avoided for climate ● Climate protection by Montreal Protocol ● Large contribution to

World avoided for climate ● Climate protection by Montreal Protocol ● Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – ODSs potent greenhouse gases – By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted emissions of 10 Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr – About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for 2008 -2012 – Reduction in radiative forcing of 0. 23 W/m 2 (13% of CO 2) by 2010 4 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

New scenarios constructed ● Constraints for 1980 -2008: – – Observed mixing ratios 1980

New scenarios constructed ● Constraints for 1980 -2008: – – Observed mixing ratios 1980 -2008 Rate of change + lifetime historic annual emissions Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up) Production reported to UNEP for 1986 -2008 ● Assumptions for baseline 2009 -2100: – Montreal Protocol limits – HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production – Annual release from bank = emission / bank ● Options: – Zero production; emission; bank destruction 5 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Lifetimes of halocarbons ● Revision: – – CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr CFC-115

Lifetimes of halocarbons ● Revision: – – CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs ● Lifetimes affect: – – GWPs, ODPs Emissions derived from observations Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down) ● CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs ● CCl 4 uncertainty in budget 6 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Future mixing ratios ODSs ● Current baseline in black ● Old (WMO, 2003, 2007)

Future mixing ratios ODSs ● Current baseline in black ● Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in red ● CFCs: – All mixing ratios decreasing – Small change cf 2003/2007 ● CCl 4 (carbon tetrachlorine) – Decreasing – Significant change cf 2003/2007 ● CH 3 CCl 3 (methyl chloroform) – Approaching zero 7 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Future mixing ratios ODSs ● HCFCs: – Increasing use in developing countries – Increasing

Future mixing ratios ODSs ● HCFCs: – Increasing use in developing countries – Increasing mixing ratios – Changes due to accelerated phase -out of 2007 ● Halon 1211 decreasing ● Halon 1301 still increasing (slightly) 8 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine ● Metric for ozone layer depletion ● EESC returns

EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine ● Metric for ozone layer depletion ● EESC returns to 1980 levels by – 2046 for midlatitude – 2073 for Antarctic ● Zero emissions past 2010 – 2033 (13 year earlier than baseline) 9 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics ● ODP-emissions - EESC ● GWP-emissions - RF

Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics ● ODP-emissions - EESC ● GWP-emissions - RF 10 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Impacts of new options ● Success of the Montreal Protocol: – ODS options have

Impacts of new options ● Success of the Montreal Protocol: – ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved – Other compounds and activities become relatively more important: › Climate changes through direct and indirect effects: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry › › 11 Very-short lived species (VSLS) Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere Emissions from rockets and aviations Emissions related to biofuels Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Hypothetical cases for accelerating recovery Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions Gt. CO 2

Hypothetical cases for accelerating recovery Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% Halons 14% HCFCs 4. 8% 0. 13% 0. 15% 0. 07% 7. 9 0. 4 4. 9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8. 8% CH 3 Br for QPS 6. 7% 0. 15% 0. 09% 13. 2 0. 002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7. 6% CH 3 CCl 3 0. 1% 0. 9 0. 004 12 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Hypothetical cases Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank

Hypothetical cases Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% Halons 14% HCFCs 4. 8% 0. 13% 0. 15% 0. 07% 7. 9 0. 4 4. 9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8. 8% CH 3 Br for QPS 6. 7% 0. 15% 0. 09% 13. 2 0. 002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7. 6% CH 3 CCl 3 0. 1% 0. 9 0. 004 HFCs N 2 O 0% 0. 35% 13 (more scenario dependent) 0% up to 170 130 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

HFCs as ODS replacement ● Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs Much of application

HFCs as ODS replacement ● Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Demand for HFCs increasing globally ● New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050 ● HFC growth expected especially in developing countries ● HCFC phase-out 2013 -2040 14 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing ● Scenarios: – Non-intervention (BAU) – Intervention through

HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing ● Scenarios: – Non-intervention (BAU) – Intervention through techn. developments, policy incentives – Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050 – HFC emissions can reach 9 -19% of CO 2 by 2050 15 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Comparing emissions by different metrics ● Emissions weighted by: – Mass – GWP –

Comparing emissions by different metrics ● Emissions weighted by: – Mass – GWP – ODP 16 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011

Montreal Protocol initiated steps CO 2 Isobutane HFO-1234 yf Mineral wool … CFCs HFCs

Montreal Protocol initiated steps CO 2 Isobutane HFO-1234 yf Mineral wool … CFCs HFCs ? ? ? Thank you for your attention 17 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011