Scenarios and the Integration of Models Cascading models

Scenarios and the Integration of Models Cascading models Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 1

An overview Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 2

Scenario description OD matrices Demography Land use Econ. growth Uncertainty Modal choices Energy prices Technology availability Transport Demand Traffic: VISUM Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) Journey travel time Congestion Energy: MARKAL Pollution Models: • Energy use • Technology ranking Emissions due to sectors: transport VADIS & OFIS & ISC 3 Pollutant concentrations Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 Residential industry Model Cascading 3

Steps 1. 2. 3. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKALLite : Energy) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS : Regional O 3 model) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS : local pollution model) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 4

Steps 1. 2. 3. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKALLite : Energy model) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 5

Drivers for the traffic model (VISUM) • O/D matrices • Modal choices • PTV method – Land use OD matrix • Alternative methods… Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 6

Transport vehicle link results Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 7

Steps 1. 2. 3. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios Run traffic assignments (VISUM) Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKALLite) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 8

Drivers of the emissions model (TREM) Item Traffic volume Provided by TRAFFIC Vehicle speed TRAFFIC Cold start emissions Distribution of vehicles by categories passenger cars, LDV, HDV, etc. ) Distribution of vehicles by classes (based on age and technology) Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 Information needed is provided by TRAFFIC ENERGY Model 9

Steps 1. 2. 3. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios Run traffic assignments (VISUM) Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKALLite) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors (MARKAL-Lite) 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 10

Drivers for the energy model (MARKAL) • Energy prices – (constant values used for all periods) • Useful demands • Available technology – (using the needed energy characteristics parameters) Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 11

Coupling Energy and Traffic Public transport - base case Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 12

Steps 1. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2. Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3. Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (REGIONAL O 3 model) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 13

Moles/sec/km 2 Emission rates for Geneva Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 14

Drivers of the ozone model (OFIS) Geneva example • Emissions: The emissions are based on the SEDE emissions inventory produced in 1996. • Meteorology: Wind direction and speed … • Boundary conditions: The boundary conditions data comes from the measurements station of Chaumont, located on the "Plateau Suisse" Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 15

OFIS simulation Four city examples Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 16

Steps 1. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2. Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3. Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (LOCAL POLLUTION MODEL) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 17

TREM VADIS Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 18

MARKAL VADIS Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 19

Drivers of the canyon model (VADIS : LOCAL Pollution Model) • The building situation • Emission sources coordinates definition • The meteorological conditions • Description and the CO emissions characterization Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 20

Steps 1. Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2. Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3. Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4. Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5. Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6. Run global O 3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7. Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8. Compute indicators 9. City comparisons and benchmarking (See ESS site : Benchmarking) 10. Policy analysis Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 21

Publications • Caratti P. , Haurie A. , Pinelli D. , Zachary D. S. Exploring the fuel cell car future: an integrated energy model at the city level. The Ninth International Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment 2003, Crete, Greece. • Borrego C. , Miranda A. I. , Valente J. , Lopes M. , Couto J. M. , Haurie A. & Drouet L. Studying the impact of urban sustainable transportation on Lisbon air quality. To appear in proceedings of AIR POLLUTION 2003, Eleventh International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Air Pollution 17 -19 September 2003 Catania, Italy Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 22

Scenario description OD matrices Demography Land use Econ. growth Uncertainty Modal choices Energy prices Technology availability Transport Demand Traffic Energy Journey travel time Congestion • Technology ranking Emissions due to sectors: Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) • Energy use Pollution Models Pollutant concentrations Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 transport Residential industry Model Cascading 23

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MARKAL VADIS Lisbon Data Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 25

VISUM MARKAL Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 26

Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Private transport – base case Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 27

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OFIS scenario results for Geneva Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 29

Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Public Transport – 4 scenarios • Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 30

Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Private Transport – 4 scenarios Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 31

Traffic Scenarios results for Geneva Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 32

Indicators : TREM Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 33

Indicator : VADIS • State indicators: • NOx peak concentration (mg/m 3): 138, 8 • CO peak concentration (mg/m 3): 1582, 4 Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 34

Emission rates… example European standards for 9 MARKAL periods TEE 1 CD 0. 1 0. 1 TEE 1 CG 0. 23 0. 23 TEE 2 CD 0. 1 0. 1 TEE 2 CG 0. 03 4 0. 03 4 TEE 3 CD 0. 16 2 0. 16 2 TEE 3 CG 0. 03 2 0. 03 2 TEE 4 CD 0. 13 1 0. 13 1 TEE 4 CG 0. 03 7 0. 03 7 Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 35

Import energy prices for MARKAL Fuel/Pe riod 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 26 26 26 COA 3. 74 3. 74 DSL 8. 63 8. 63 DST 9. 643 9. 643 ETH 7. 022 7. 022 GSL 10. 676 10. 676 GSW 8. 63 15 15 HDG 24 24 24 LPG 20. 929 20. 929 MET 8. 152 8. 152 MSW 0. 1 0. 1 NGA 11. 828 11. 828 7. 63 7. 63 11. 828 11. 828 26 26 26 BIG NGFCC NGI WOR Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 36

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Building situation in VADIS domain Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 38

Distribution of vehicles by Categories Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 39

Coupling TREM with the traffic model Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 40

Coupling Pollution models with Traffic and Energy model Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 41

Indicators : from traffic model – Pressure indicators: • private transport: 1 927 697 850 • Passenger transport demand (pkm per year) • public transport: 19 869 100 – State indicators: • Crowding (hours in an overcrowded public transport: ? ? ? • Traffic jams (hours spent in traffic jams): ? ? ? Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 42

VADIS domain Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 43

Scenario comparison with OFIS Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 44

OFIS scenarios for Geneva AOT Max ave sub Scen ref. 41. 45 31. 29 32. 76 33. 57 173 Scen 1 40. 59 31. 31 30. 99 31. 07 173 Scen 2 39. 68 31. 32 28. 41 27. 41 173 Scen 3 48. 61 31. 44 40. 41 43. 98 174 Scen 4 47. 33 31. 5 39. 7 42. 94 174 Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 town E 120 Dom 45

Coupling VISUM and MARKAL BAU Scenari o 1 o 2 o 3 o 4 Density - high Low High Low Demography - high High Low Population in 2030 494 600 1 085 000 1 085 514 700 000 Active population in 247 300 542 600 537 000 227 800 225 400 2030 Public transport 3. 23 1. 78 (Train) Private transport (Tramway) 10. 47 16. 44 12. 57 3. 98 2. 91 Private transport 9 417 9 512 13 206 3 757 5 329 Gdansk Meeting June 23 -24 2003 46