SCENARIO PLANNING MAP 01 Extrinsic what the world

SCENARIO PLANNING MAP 01 Extrinsic - what the world does PREDICTIVE What could happen ? All possible futures Do nothing - business as usual Intrinsic - what we do Drive change - strategic action 02 Extrinsic - what the world does EXPLANATORY What is likely to happen ? The likely future Do nothing - business as usual Intrinsic - what we do Drive change - strategic action 03 Extrinsic - what the world does ASPIRATIONAL What do we want to happen ? Do nothing - business as usual The desired future Intrinsic - what we do Drive change - strategic action

SCENARIO PLANNING IN ACTION DEFINE CREATE EXPLORE EMBBED ACT COMMUNICATE PRIORITIZE PROVOKE ESTABLISH CREATE TEST ESTABLISH objective new thinking scenario framework scenario documents & outputs current strategies ongoing strategic conversation DECIDE BRAINSTORM BUILD focal issues spectrum of issues scenario logics SET IDENTIFY VITAL GENERATIVE GENERATE time horizon driving force compelling narratives discussion of implications DEFINE RESEARCH ENSURE ESTABLISH scope key themes internal consistency contingent strategies NAME core & extent scenario teams DISTINGUISH certainties and uncertainties TEST preliminary scenario frameworks ENABLE people to experience the scenario GENERATE strategic options DEFINE a core strategy robust against scenarios BRAINSTORM systems to monitor weak signals BUILD responsiveness to change

Expand SCENARIO PLANNING MATRIX ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Growth Plan Deliberative or “Offensive” Strategy MATRIX Potential Doomsday Scenario Flat Defensive Plan Increasing Modestly COMPETITIVE PRESSURES Increasing Strongly

THE SCENARIO FUNNEL Option space (scope is possible future development) Trends emerging issues wild cards Scenario A Scenario B Historical Data Scenario C Scenario D TODAY FUTURE

SCENARIO PLANNING WORKSHEET SCENARIO A IMPACT OF SCENARIO What happens after the scenario occurs? UNCERTAINTIES What is unknown about the scenario? QUESTIONS What question you have about scenario? COMMENTS What comments you have about scenario? RESPONSE What response you take on occurring of scenario? ALTERNATIVE PLANS What alternative way you take if it occurs? SCENARIO B SCENARIO C SCENARIO D

Get the full version of this presentation and access our library of hundreds of corporate resources Join You Exec Plus today and take your career to new heights. Receive premium corporate resources in your inbox every week. Start today