Scenari di Business settore combattimento e sorveglianza strategica

Scenari di Business: settore combattimento e sorveglianza strategica Alessandro Amendola Direzione Sistemi/Programmi Militari , Nuovi Progetti Vincenzo Miano Diezione Sistemi/Programmi Militari, Studi di Mercato e Scenari UAV-UCAV Scenari evolutivi e di convergenza nazionale Trieste 26 Ottobre 2004 1 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Outline Overview of the major development and production programs Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) 1. NEURON 2. J-UCAS 3. SKY-X Surveillance Systems HALE/MALE 1. Global Hawk 2. Predator 3. Heron/EAGLE 4. Euro. MALE Scenarios Analysis Market Perspective 2 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) 1. NEURON 2. J-UCAS 3. SKY-X 3 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

NEURON 4 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

2001 2005 2010 2015 2030 RAFALE in service Development Next generation a/c UCAV NEURON Demonstrator Upholding development effort 5 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

NEURON UNMANNED COMBAT AIR VEHICLE 6 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

LOIs / HOAs EXECUTIVE AGENCY MAIN CONTRACT PRIME CONTRACTOR DASSAULT AVIATION MOUs Agreements 7 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Programme perimeter Ground segment Air Vehicle GPS SIBW Data DL Link ATC DGPS NCW I/F NCW GCS Flight tests room 8 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Italian WPs Alenia, Galileo and others European Workshare FCS actuators Hydraulics Undercarriage Gal Design (Aero, Avionics, Gl. Tests) Equipped Fuselage Undercarriage doors Avionics 15 -20% Fuel System Qualif WTT <5% Weapon Interfaces Aft Fuselage Exhaust pipe Integration Test Rig Gal Design (SIWB arch. ) Smart Integrated Weapon Bay doors Air Data System Electrical power system 15 -20% Alenia/Galileo ~5% Equipped Wing Ground Control Station 5 -10% AERONAUTICA ~5% Data Link NCW interfaces ~5% Prime / Design Authority (General design, Final assembly, Global tests) Air intake & duct LO perimeter Flight control system Propulsion ECS, Braking, Smart plug avionics software (20%) 45 -50% Basic weapon bay COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL 9

Italian responsability n Reference project Main characteristics fuselage length 9, 5 m wing span 10 m empty weight 3650 kg, MTOW 5050 kg Low Observability • • n Aerodynamics • Reference engine RRTM Adour (TBC) n Main performance approach speed 120 kt loiter @ 100 km 1, 5 h Mach weapon bay open 0, 7 Stabilisation and control without fin Control Architecture • • n External shape Antenna Air Intake & air Duct Undercarriage Doors Bays Doors Sensor window Exhaust pipe Automatic. Take off and Landing Open Modular Architecture Armament Bay • • Aeroacoustic behaviour Smart Integrated concept NEURON Critical Technologies 10 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Overall Schedule 11 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Joint Unmanned Combat Air System J-UCAS 12 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES High risk • survivability • stealthiness, low observable maintainability • advanced autonomous targeting and engagement process • adaptive, autonomous operations Medium-risk • air vehicle affordabiliyty • weapon management and release • secure, robust communications 13 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

PROGRAM EVOLUTION X- 45 A X- 45 B 9700 kg 5530 kg X- 45 C Common Operating System • • Weapons Sensors communication links air vehicles X- 47 A 15875 kg Interoperability Autonomy Platform Flexibility 2932 kg X- 47 C 19000 kg 14 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

ROADMAP CONOPS DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED IOC (2002 Do. D Roadmap) • SEAD (EA 6 B) 2005 -2010 • STRIKE (AV-8 B, F 117 A) 2010 -2015 • INTEGRATED STRIKE/SEAD (EA 6 B, F 16) 2015 -2020 • COUNTER AIR MISSION (F 14, F 15, F 16) 2020 -2025 • INTEGRATED STRIKE/SEAD/AIR (F/A 18, F/A 22) 2025 -2030 Recently J-UCAS SEAD for US-Air. Force and US Navy slipped to FY 2007 -FY 2009 15 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

• An X-45 B demonstrator was planned heavier that X-45 A, but recognizing the future requirement for operating in distant high threat theaters, DARPA and the Air Force modified the operational objectives for greater payload, range, and persistence, with a resulting considerable increase in size that led to the design of X- 45 C • The larger X-45 C air vehicle will more closely represent the operational system as currently envisioned and conduct demonstrations for both the Navy and Air Force 16 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

SKY - X 17 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Sky-X Technology Roadmap 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demo development & sensors testing Target Recognition, weapon dropping Sky-X Product Demo Data Link, flight controls Configuration, Propulsion Technology Research DEVELOPMENT METHODOLOGY Q Q Consolidated air vehicle technologies Off-the-shelf equipment Lean design/manufacturing process Focus on specific innovation 18 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Sky-X Air Vehicle Main Features Wing span 5. 78 m Length 6. 94 m Engine Thrust Payload MTOW 440 da. N 150¸ 200 kg 1100 kg 19 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Sky-X Payload Modularity Electro-Optical Sensors Synthetic Aperture Radar Weapons Bay Interchangeable payload modules Dimensions [m] Length overall 2. 13 Height 0. 48 Width 0. 86 Volume [m 3] 0. 45 20 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Sky-X Configuration Evolution 21 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

REQUIRED NATIONAL PROGRAMS SYNERGIES Sky-X NEURON Target Recognition, weapon dropping Data Link, flight controls • Low Observability Gal Design (SIWB arch. ) Smart Integrated Weapon Bay doors Air Data System Electrical power system • Weapon system Configuration, Propulsion • Mission Autonomy • Digital Advanced FCS EUROMALE ( ? ) • Data-link • Sensors New National Tech Initiative ? (FINMECCANICA) RESEARCH WEAG, PNRM Programs participation, demonstrators and research to be coordinated within a strategy 22 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

REMARKS • The UCAV market is likely to be dominated by US manufacturers, following J-UCAS program results, with Boeing and Northrop. Grumman leader. • In Europe the only serious effort is around Dassault NEURON program supported by Alenia Aeronautica and Saab with Spain, Greece, Belgium and Switzerland. • UK and Germany have not been seriuosly engaged yet. 23 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Surveillance Systems HALE/MALE 1. Global Hawk 2. Predator 3. Heron/EAGLE 4. Euro. MALE 24 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

LESSONS LEARNED n n n Continuous information updating about hostile forces composition and generally awareness about crisis area is believed to be a key element for an efficient IPB Asymmetric warfare scenarios are making less effective traditional CONOPS and it is a critical factor the capability to keep persistence in the area of operations in order to localize and destroy scattered enemy forces which widely use CCDO means Operations against Time Sensitive targets or special forces operations support require availability in the area of a persistent sensor -to-shooter capability for quick action duties IPB Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield CONOPS CONcept of OPeration. S CCDO Camouflage Concealment Deception Obscuration AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL sensors & communication persistence time to targeting and identification 25

Q Basic starting requirements : • performance, survivability, flexibility and sustainability • highly modular, in terms of platform and plug and play systems, in order to be able to accomplish missions like: reconnaissance, ELINT, IMINT (EO/IR, GMTI, SAR), Target Acquisition, Electronic jamming and in addition also Strike Capability • NCW compatibility • Cost reduction (30 -40 % less) 26 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

GLOBAL HAWK Full rate production: 2007 -13 Systems planned: 51 Systems ordered: 7 (for tests)+6 (LRIP) System unit price: $100 M (w R&D) R&D: 2. 32$B Target price : 50 $M HALE 4. 8$B* 336, 2 $M yearly RDT&E ON TEST (IOC: 122005) Northrop Grumman RQ-8 A/B GLOBAL HAWK • Germany to replace Atlantic (EUROHAWK with EADS) • NATO AGS • UK to replace Camberra PR 9 • Australia • Canada, Japan 27 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

PREDATOR OPERATIONAL (ISD 1995) MALE 2$B* ON TEST (IOC: 12 -2009) Full rate production: 2008 A/C planned: 62 Program Unit cost $10. 7 M (w R&D) General Atomics PREDATOR B PREDATOR A A/c delivered: 100+ (end 2002) • US Air Force • CIA • US Navy PREDATOR C • Italian Air Force • FJ- 44 A TF engine • twin engine • Stealth • Swept wing • High-treath scenario PREDATOR As • Expected 2005 MARINER / PREDATOR B-ER (Locked-Martin Honeywell TPE 331 - 10 T engine 49 h endurance • US Navy BAMS (? ) • US Dept Homeland Security • US Coast Guard Two-piston engined 28 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

HERON MALE IAI • Indian Army HERON II / HA - 50 VALIANT • Heavy fuel engine • Electric motors/fuel cells HERON TP • 45000 ft HA - 310 Flying wing 8 engines HA – 315 Twin-boom 6 engines 29 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

EAGLE ON TEST (IOC: 2005) MALE ad interim solution Europe Systeme Interimaire de Drone MALE IAI EADS EAGLE 1 3 a/c planned First Flight 2009 EADS EUROMALE • 1. 1€B (including 300€M for R&D) expected for 24 a/c • France and Netherlands signed an agreement in December 2003 for cooperation to MALE development • Sweden, Spain, Italy have shown interest in joining the programme 30 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Scenarios Analysis Market Perspective 31 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

MALE There is a largely bipolar market developing in the MALE sector between General Atomic-Aeronautical Systems and EADS-IAI with the Europe the main battleground EUROMALE is likely to be the main Europe’s contribution to this sector. EADS forecast a core market of about 39 MALE systems in the next 10 years including NATO future requirements whose tender is expected after 2006. HALE Northrop-Grumman Global Hawk will not have rivals before at least 2010. The exception may be Gulfstream RQ-37 unmanned G-V G 550 offered to the US NAVY for its BAMS requirement. RQ-37 also being examined by IAF. General Dinamics. RQ-37 32 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

HIGH Missions spectrum CURRENT SYSTEMS + (EUROMALE, PREDATOR-B) COMPLEXITY Air Surveillance Long-loiter armed surveillance Armed Recce DEAD/SEAD ISR stand-off Target Identification / BDA ISR hazard environments LOW Communication relay LOW THREAT LEVEL Missions accomplished by current HALE and MALE systems HIGH 33

HALE EADS – N. G. Euro. Hawk Northrop Grumman Global Hawk General Atomics Predator C W E I G H T IAI HA-50 (ex NGHALE) EADS Euro. MALE IAI Heron TP General Atomics Predator A, I-Gnat EADS Eagle 1 • IAI Heron • Elbit Hermes 1500 USA EUROPE General Atomics Predator B HALE Singaporean LALEE South Korean HALE Japanese HALE MALE On production, with variants development ISRAEL Under development ASIAN PLAYERS Under study 34 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

USAVMALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) Surveillance USAVHALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) Surveillance URAV Reconnaissance UCAV Combat l Business rapidly growing around 2010 to 2030, 2 Billion Euro per year after 2020 l Market initially dominated by surveillance systems (USAV MALE/HALE) and recoinassance (URAV Long Range). After 2015 growing market for UCAV driven by US requirements l European global market extimated in the order of 16 Billion Euro 35 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

UAV MARKET FORECAST MARKET ANALYSIS FIRM/ AEROSPACE COMPANY/GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATION/OTHERS SEGMENT ANALYSED mini TUAV MALE HALE URAV UCAR VTOL FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ? ? ? TIMEFRAME CUSTOMER GEOGRAPHICAL REGION VALUE ($B) DATE 2004 -13 USA+EUR+Ro. W 11 October 2004 EUR 6. 5 USA 20* ? ? ? ? TEAL GROUP ? ? 2005 -14 USA+EUR+Ro. W 32 August 2004 US Do. D ? ? 2003 -09 USA 15* December 2002 Northrop Grumman ? ? 2005 -20 USA+EUR+Ro. W 16 -45 August 2004 Alenia Aeronautica ? ? 2005 -15 USA+EUR+Ro. W 14 October 2004 FROST & SULLIVAN 2003 -12 December 2003 * includes RD&T, Procurement, O&S ** expected US uav additional acquisitions not including mini+micro AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL 36

CONCLUSIONS (1) • UCAV may become a reality provided that some critical issues would be solved: attrition rates, life-cycle costs, communication bandwidth, flexibility in reactive defence suppression, combined operation with manned aircraft • large investment in RD are still required, and US they are planning to go in this direction • UCAV system may radically change operational paradigms and represent a technological breaktrough • gap between european and american industries may further increase • for italian defence stakeholders (armed forces, industries) it is not just the time to wait • technologies developed for UCAV may have impact also on future manned combat systems 37 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

CONCLUSIONS (2) • Global Hawk has a dominant position in the strategic surveillance segment since is the only product available on the market, but is not affordable • A strategic surveillance system capable to carry the same payload of the GH with 30/40 % reduction in life-cycle cost may attract interest from many countries • Euro. MALE may be considered the only seriuos effort to counteract the penetration of Predator in the European market (Italy included), even if it is based on israelian technology • italian industries participation in Euro. MALE should be considered and accurately evaluated 38 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

ALTITUDE (ft) GLOBAL HAWK HALE ALTAIR HALE MARINER PREDATOR B EUROMALE Advanced MALE EAGLE 1 Low Cost ITALHALE HERMES 1500 HERON MALE PREDATOR A MAX ENDURANCE (h) 39 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

THANK YOU 40 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

BACKUP 41 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

2001 2005 2010 2015 2030 • FRANCE • UK • SPAIN • SWITZERLAND • GREECE • GERMANY • ITALY • SWEDEN • AUSTRIA • BELGIUM • NEETHERLANDS • NORWAY 42 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

J-UCAS DEMONSTRATORS Aircraft X- 47 A X- 45 B X- 45 C Manufacturer Northrop Boeing P&WC Honeywell General Electric JT 15 D-5 C F 124 -GA-100 F 404 -GE-102 D Thrust (k. N) 14. 19 28, 02 48, 93 MTOW (kg) 2932 5530 9700 15875 EW (kg) 2216 3630 6350 7485 Fuel (kg) 716 1220 2450 6350 Payload (kg) n/a 680 900 2040 Length (m) 8, 50 8, 08 10, 97 11, 89 Span (m) 8, 47 10, 32 14, 33 14, 94 Grumman Engine 43 AERONAUTICA COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL