SBA 504 Program Debenture Issuance Summary for Fiscal
SBA 504 Program Debenture Issuance Summary for Fiscal Year 2015 October 5, 2015
SBA 504 Debenture Issuance Summary –FY 15 • For FY 15 $3, 426, 684, 000 debentures were issued, down 11% from the year- ago period. • The average 20 -year debenture interest rate was 2. 73% versus 3. 15% for the year-ago period. The average ten-year debenture rate was 1. 86% versus 2. 02%. For the year, the ongoing Effective Rate to borrowers for twenty-year debt was 4. 81% vs. one-year ago 5. 23%. • 20 -year spread to the Treasury benchmark averaged +55 bps, up from 47. 5 bps in the year ago period and compared to the +84. 7 bps average since program’s inception in 1986. • 20 -year spread to interest rate swap benchmark averaged +45 bps, up from 36 bps a year ago and compared to +45. 7 bps since pricing to swaps started in 1999. • Underwriters successfully managed the buyer base, positioned new issue Certificates when unable to clear the market at pricing spread, and provided secondary market trading liquidity. Trustee performed its duties without error. The SBA 504 program has issued $65, 695, 409, 000 debentures with an Outstanding Principal Balance of $26, 831, 326, 591. 33, 000 as of October 1, 2015 • DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission.
SBA-504 20 Yr. Debenture Rate (%, left scale) and Pool Size ($MM, right scale) 6, 80 500 5, 80 400 4, 80 300 3, 80 Axis Title Pool Size Debenture Rate DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission. MMM-yy MMM-yy MMM-yy MMM-yy MMM-yy 0 MMM-yy 1, 80 MMM-yy 100 MMM-yy 2, 80 MMM-yy 200
0 ав 8 г-0 де 8 к 0 ап 8 р0 ав 9 г-0 де 9 к 0 ап 9 р1 ав 0 г-1 де 0 к 1 ап 0 р1 ав 1 г-1 де 1 к 1 ап 1 р1 ав 2 г-1 де 2 к 1 ап 2 р1 ав 3 г-1 де 3 к 1 ап 3 р1 ав 4 г-1 де 4 к 1 ап 4 р1 ав 5 г-1 5 07 к- р- ап де 504 20 -Year Pool Size Trends ($MM) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 3 mos Avg 12 mos Avg DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission.
Comparative Spreads to Treasury (BP) 500 400 300 200 100 0 сен-10 мар-11 сен-11 SBA мар-12 Mortgage сен-12 мар-13 A CMBS сен-13 мар-14 FNMA Multifamily DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission. сен-14 мар-15 Baa Corporate сен-15
Monthly DCPC Outstanding Balance($) October 2015 30 000 000 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 5 000 000 0 ян ап ию ок ян ап ию ок ян ап ию ок в- р- л- т- в- р- л- т- в- р- л- т- в- р- л- т06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission.
Trends • Y/Y rates are down but pricing spreads have increased in anticipation of a tighter monetary policy. • FOMC liftoff is delayed; investors are uncertain • GDP continues its erratic quarterly performance and even with Unemployment at its targeted rate of 5. 1%, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate is the lowest in thirty-eight years • Inflation world wide remains tame, a strong $US and weakness in China are hurting production • Fed’s path of rate increases will be gradual • Even with tighter Fed policy global demand for $US assets should be strong because of low EZ yields DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission.
Disclaimer The information herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. DCFLLC, 2013. All rights reserved. DCFLLC 2015. No distribution without permission.
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