Satellites Tropical Cyclones and the 2005 Atlantic Tropical

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Satellites, Tropical Cyclones and the 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Howard Berger Dave Stettner

Satellites, Tropical Cyclones and the 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Howard Berger Dave Stettner Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies UW-Space Place March 14, 2006

http: //cimss. ssec. wisc. edu/tropic. html

http: //cimss. ssec. wisc. edu/tropic. html

Definitions • Tropical Depression: Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of less than

Definitions • Tropical Depression: Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 39 mph • Tropical Storm: Tropical cyclone with winds at least 39 mph and less than 74 mph • Hurricane: Tropical cyclone with winds greater than 74 mph – The North Atlantic, North-East Pacific

Saffir-Simpson Scale Category Min Wind Speed (MPH) 1 74 -95 2 96 - 110

Saffir-Simpson Scale Category Min Wind Speed (MPH) 1 74 -95 2 96 - 110 Minimum Pressure (mb) Greater than 980 979 -965 Storm Surge (ft) 3 111 -130 964 -945 9 -12 4 131 -155 944 -920 13 -18 5 156+ Less than 920 19+ 3 -5 6 -8

Hurricane Katrina Cat 3 Hurricane Tropical Storm Cat 4 -5 Hurricane Tropical Depression

Hurricane Katrina Cat 3 Hurricane Tropical Storm Cat 4 -5 Hurricane Tropical Depression

Satellites and Tropical Cyclones

Satellites and Tropical Cyclones

Where is it? • Infra. Red/Visible imagery • Vorticity Images

Where is it? • Infra. Red/Visible imagery • Vorticity Images

How strong is it? • AMSU Intensity Estimates • Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)

How strong is it? • AMSU Intensity Estimates • Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)

Where is it going? When will it get there? • Satellite Steering flow

Where is it going? When will it get there? • Satellite Steering flow

How strong will it be? • Wind Shear Plots • Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

How strong will it be? • Wind Shear Plots • Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Hurricane Katrina 2005 Early Interaction with the Saharan Air Layer (Courtesy of Jason Dunion

Hurricane Katrina 2005 Early Interaction with the Saharan Air Layer (Courtesy of Jason Dunion (HRD)) Pre-Katrina

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy)

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy)

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models Big Powerful Forecaster Brain

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models Big Powerful Forecaster Brain

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models

How Hurricanes Are Forecasted Observations (satellite, raob, aircraft, ships, buoy) Big Powerful Computer Models Big Powerful Forecaster Brain Forecast

Track Error Source: Hurricane Research Division

Track Error Source: Hurricane Research Division

Intensity Error Source: Hurricane Research Division

Intensity Error Source: Hurricane Research Division

Coastal Demographics and Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Demographics and Tropical Cyclones

Population (in thousands of People) Florida Population Source: US Census Bureau Year

Population (in thousands of People) Florida Population Source: US Census Bureau Year

Population (in thousands of People) Florida Population Source: US Census Bureau 1947 Massproduced, low-cost

Population (in thousands of People) Florida Population Source: US Census Bureau 1947 Massproduced, low-cost window air conditioners become possible Year

Source: Hurricane Research Division (NOAA) Number of Hurricanes Population (in thousands of People) Florida

Source: Hurricane Research Division (NOAA) Number of Hurricanes Population (in thousands of People) Florida Population and Number of Hurricanes Year