Saint Petersburg Meeting February 8 9 2012 NRAL
Saint Petersburg Meeting February 8 – 9, 2012 ЛОПР: ограничить ущерб от опасных природных явлений на побережье NRAL: to limit damages from natural hazards at the coast Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University
Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes
Goals and Objectives l l To undertake comprehensive research which will identify and fill the gaps in our understanding of the nature and impact of extreme events in the coastal zones To identify the mechanisms driving the intensity of extreme hazardous events in the coastal zones in European Russia To identify regions most at risk of compound events To provide risk assessments of these extremes under climate change scenarios
Expected results q Regional assessment of long-term variability and trends in extreme events over coastal zones of European Russia in the instrumental period, present transitional, and future climates; q Quantitative analysis of the regional and large scale mechanisms driving coastal hazards in a changing climate, including storm surges, extreme sea levels, hydrometeorolgical hazards (floods), soil conditions and groundwater storage; q Quantitative estimates of changes in coastal environment, geochemistry, water quantity and quality (implying, in turn, limits of the amounts of drinkable water) under changing climate conditions over European coastal zones due to the impact of hydrometerological hazards; q Regional measures of risk to environment, water resources and their management (such as potential limits of water availability), life conditions, marine structures and economy under climate change for selected coastal areas in European Russia.
Terminology Терминология • Hazard: threat Опасное явление: угроза • Risk: how much the threat can affect me Риск: какова угроза для меня • Vulnerability: how much am I protected from the hazard ? Уязвимость: насколько я защищен от опасности? • Preparedness: what can I do to reduce my vulnerability ? Готовность: что я могу сделать, чтобы уменьшить мою уязвимость? Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Hazards, Extreme Events, Risks • Hazards: exceptional natural events – Storms, waves, storm surges, sea ice, flooding • Extreme events – Deviations from the normal variance, rare, infrequent • Threat – Danger for people, development, infrastructure, investment • Risks – Potential to cause damage, severe impact • Vulnerability – Status of protection from threat Vulnerability • “Low probability – high impact” Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow
Elements of Risk: Hazard, Vulnerability, Preparedness Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow Juan Carlos de Villagran
Risk Assessment • Quantify the hazard Hj • Quantify the vulnerability Vj • Estimate the Risk Rj • Risk Ri, …, j = Vi, …j x Hi, …, j • Hazard and Risk Mapping • Evaluate and interpret both kind of maps Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Vegetation mapping in the Astrakhan Nature Reserve area of the Volga delta records the rapid shoreline changes during sea level fall and more moderate infill during sea level rise over the last century (Overeem et al. 2003 a, 2003 b). Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Changes in the duration of European wet periods normalized occurrence anomalies It is not the effect of changing number days!!! Net effect ofof thewet number of wet days (Monte-Carlo simulation of the growing number of wet days, % per decade) Linear trend in the WP duration: 19502008 1% 0. 17± 0. 1 0 2% 3% 9 5 Zolina et al. 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett. 0. 31± 0. 1 0. 47± 0. 2
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011
Methodology Historical Data Bases Castaneda rd za ha risk lity Risk Assessme nt i ab Exposure er ln vu Coastal impacts Hazard - Uncertainty exposure Vulnerability The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)
To do • Develop standards for risk evaluation • Hazards do not stop at a border – Standardize terminology, exchange of data and information • Close co-operation with all partners – Authorities, agencies, private stakeholders, science • Integrate Risk Assessment into planning and operation • Money spent on early risk consideration is well spent. Much less than cleaning up AFTER a disaster strikes Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,
Structual damage Ying Xiu, WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE OF 12 MAY 2008
Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et a 500 years return level (m) Castaneda Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year)
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