S Felix Wu UC Davis Background NM BGP
• S. Felix Wu, UC Davis • Background – NM, BGP, Security, OSN Social Sciences • Interests w. r. t. Qo. E – Communication Network versus Social • Interference, reflection of Qo. E/Qo. L (? ? ? ) – Impact, Social Interactions, Journalism/Communication models, Social Intelligence • Perspectives – Link the impacts (individual person and/or communities) to the service via the social layer – Achieve/manage Qo. E within the social layer
Interference between Network and Social Layers a communication network Qo. E perspective S. Felix Wu 2 8/8/16 University of California, Davis, USA SINCERE
Questions • Was the worse/better Qo. E due to the network service provided or something else? – Special events, social/cultural/behavioral, expectation and awareness • Can we inform or influence the community better (and in real-time) regarding the expectation? – Expectation, awareness, differentiation
Perspectives • Link the impacts (individual person and/or communities) to the service via the social layer • Achieve/manage Qo. E within the social layer
Syrian Internet Blackout • November 29, 2012 • AS 29386, AS 29256 AS 6453 AS 3491 AS 29256 AS 6762 AS 29386
{ "timestamp": "2012 -11 -29 T 10: 29: 58", "type": "A", "attrs": { "source_id": "10 -217. 29. 66. 120", "path": [15605, 12874, 3303, 1299, 701, 3491, 29386, 29386], "community": [], "target_prefix": "82. 137. 192. 0/18” } }, { "timestamp": "2012 -12 -01 T 14: 32: 09", "type": "A", "attrs": { "source_id": "15 -187. 16. 24", "path": [16735, 3549, 3491, 29386, 29386], "community": ["16735: 3", "16735: 6011"], "target_prefix": "82. 137. 192. 0/18”} },
Interference between two Layers • Network vs. Social Layers • What can we say about the “social impact” of the Syrian Internet outage in 2012?
Social Interactions 8/8/16 SINCERE 8
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Psychological Linguistics • We cannot easily tell whether the emotion dynamics was due to the target service or something else (deeper and broader)?
crawl. SINCERE. se • • 107 millions of POSTs 1. 9 billions of Comments 32 billions of Likes and Reactions 5. 2 billions of User identifiers – Primary and application scoped IDs
User AF 1, Damascus 10/1/2012~2/28/2013 # of comments by AF 1 per day Syrian Internet Outage Possible sleep time for AF 1
ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺃﺨﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺤﻴﺎﺀ ﺩﻣﺸﻖ Page ID: 186811661376662 Syrian Internet Outage Still crawling
Anomalous user ID 100004733887622 sleeping
Timing Analysis • Users being affected together at the network layer • Users/communities being affected indirectly from the social interaction layer – Key participants missing due to the network layer services – Alignment between BGP ASes and FB communities
Duration or life time of a post? {"id” : "15704546335_10150171185276336", "from” : {"name” : "Fox News", "category” : "Media news publishing”, "id” : "15704546335"}, "message” : "Breaking News: The White House releases President Obama's long-form birth certificate. Obama to comment at 9: 45 a ET -- Watch live on Fox News Channel. ", "actions” : [{"name” : "Comment", "link” : "http: //www. facebook. com/15704546335/posts/10150171185276336 "}, …], "created_time” : "2011 -04 -27 T 13: 07: 55+0000", "updated_time” : "2011 -11 -19 T 01: 34: 55+0000", "likes” : {"data": […], "count": 2052}, "comments”: 10772 comments, 16567 likes from 5604 individual users 8/8/16 SINCERE 18
#Users #Comments/Messages 8/8/16 SINCERE 19
#Users #Comments/Messages 8/8/16 SINCERE 20
#Users #Comments/Messages
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Example of Communication Theory Information Cascade • Decision – Information – Decisions from Observable Others earlier • Cascade – Ignoring local/private information and relying on the observable/public decisions (by others). – Fragility of cascades on new (public) information 8/8/16 SINCERE 23
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Up Cascade 8/8/16 No Cascade SINCERE Down Cascade 25
Cascade Prediction • 4 th Comment – Transition Point (OWS) 8/8/16 SINCERE 26
Timing Analysis
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Syrian Internet Outage
• Neutrals are not born to be on the “neutral” position. They are influenced by others as time goes on. Pay attention to connections inside groups. 3 h after the topic is posted. 70 comments received. 8/8/16 SINCERE 34
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- Slides: 36