RX341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Unit 4 Risk

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -1 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Objectives Define the risk management process and how it relates to the complexity analysis. From the NWCG Prescribed Fire Complexity Rating System Guide: Identify the three factors of the complexity analysis. Identify the 14 elements that apply to the three risk factors of the complexity analysis. Describe how mitigation measures may change the rating of complexity element(s). Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -2 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Defining Risk “The probability or likelihood that an adverse event or situation will occur” Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -3 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Risk Discussion Points Risk analysis is a valuable tool in prescribed fire planning. The purpose of the risk assessment is to provide critical information to both the preparer and the approving official. The process should be completed early in the planning process. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -4 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation 04 -5 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Identifying and Assessing Risk Gather as much intelligence concerning the project and the area as you can. Use the information to identify risks and mitigation measures. Draw from your own and other’s past experiences, escaped fire reviews, etc. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -6 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Risk Taking and Decisionmaking What are some contributing factors in determining whether and individual or an organization may be willing to take risks? Successes Failures Information gathering and interpretation Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -7 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Risk and Complexity Risk assessment is not the same as complexity analysis. The risk assessment provides information needed in several elements of the complexity analysis. There is duplication between elements of the risk assessment process and the complexity analysis process. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -8 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Integrating Risk and Complexity into the Prescribed Fire Plan Gather intelligence and identify points of concern. 2. Complete a risk assessment (optional, but recommended). 3. Complete the preliminary complexity analysis. 1. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 4. Develop the other components (elements) of the burn plan. 5. Reevaluate and finalize the complexity analysis to ensure accuracy. 04 -9 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Prescribed Fire Complexity Rating System Guide Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -10 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Purpose Assigns a complexity rating to the prescribed fire. Provides a relative ranking for use by management and implementation personnel. Identifies prescribed fire plan elements or characteristics that may pose special problems or concerns. Identifies mitigation activities needed to reduce the risk/hazard. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -11 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Overview Contains 14 elements 3 factors for each element Risk Potential Consequences Technical Difficulty Values are assigned for each factor (low, moderate, high) Evaluate elements individually and select appropriate value Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -12 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Overview (cont. ) Document ratings and rationale Complete prescribed fire plan Reevaluate elements and factors and complete final ratings and rational Complete summary rating for each factor Document the summary rating rationale Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -13 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Multiple Complexity Analyses Separate prescriptions and/or burn organizations for different stages of implementation may result in multiple complexity analyses and ratings. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -14 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Step 1 – Preliminary Review of the Element Descriptors A review of the rating descriptors prior to visiting the site will help to identify the elements that will be of most concern. Alternatives and/or mitigation measures that will help to reduce the final complexity rating should be considered early in the planning process. Any risk analysis that was completed for the project can be reviewed and findings inserted into the complexity process at this time. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -15 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Step 2 – Preliminary Rating Determination The initial determination is often not as thorough as the final one. During the initial site visit, begin looking for trouble spots and areas of special concern, both inside and outside the project boundary. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -16 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Step 2 – Preliminary Rating Determination Consider the prescription needed to successfully light and hold the unit while meeting the burn objectives. Rate the preliminary value for each factor of each element by selecting the most appropriate descriptor. Circle the low, moderate, or high value on the worksheet and document the rationale for that value. Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -17 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Instructions/Process (These steps will be covered in detail in Unit 10) Step 3 – Final Rating Determination Step 4 – Summary Rating Determination Step 5 – Agency Administrator Approval Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -18 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Potential for Escape Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -19 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Number and Dependence of Activities Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -20 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Off-Site Values Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -21 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation On-Site Values Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -22 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Fire Behavior Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -23 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Management Organization RX Fire Burn Boss FIRB Fire Information Holding Specialist Safety Officer RX Fire Behavior Igniter Holder Monitor Igniters Holding Crew Smoke Observer Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis Weather Observer High 04 -24 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Public and Political Interest Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -25 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Fire Treatment Objectives Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -26 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Constraints Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -27 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Safety Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -28 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Ignition Procedures and Methods PHASE 1 C D B A POINT A, IS THE TEST BURN, RED INDICATES IGNITER 1 WHITE INDICATES IGNITER 2 Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -29 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Interagency Coordination Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -30 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Project Logistics Factor Complexity Low Unit 4 Location and Access Local Personnel <5 Moderate High Remote 6 -29 >30 Duration <3 (Continued Logistical Support) Days 4 -10 Days >11 Days Special Logistic Function Position Assigned May Be Needed Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis No Must Have 04 -31 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Smoke Management Low Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis High 04 -32 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Unit 4 Preliminary Complexity Analysis Exercise Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -33 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation N Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -34 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation N Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -35 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation N Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -36 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation N Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -37 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation N Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -38 -RX 341 -PPT

Red Bull Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation 04 -39 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Northwest Corner Outside Unit Interior Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -40 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking across unit interior into northwest corner Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -41 -RX 341 -PPT

Looking south into southwest corner Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation 04 -42 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking south into southwest corner Interior Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -43 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Rolling topography inside unit Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -44 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking southeast across steep slope between the flat top and the flat bottom of the unit Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -45 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking west across the steep slope between the flat top and the flat bottom of the unit Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -46 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking south along the interior residential access road Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -47 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking west at the interior houses in the northeast quadrant Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -48 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Abandoned dilapidated house in the northeast quadrant Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -49 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation East boundary looking south Outside Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis Interior 04 -50 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Archeological site along east boundary Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -51 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Central interior archeological site Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -52 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Exterior Looking southwest at bottom center of unit Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -53 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Exterior Looking southwest into bottom southwest corner Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -54 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Debris left by firewood collectors Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -55 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation 04 -56 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Ladder fuels along bottom interior Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -57 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Looking west along bottom southern boundary road Outside Unit 4 Interior Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -58 -RX 341 -PPT

1. Potential for Escape Risk Preliminary Rating: Low Moderate High RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Rationale Although holding forces have access around the entire unit, PI is at 60% at the hot end of the prescription. Final Rating: Low Moderate High Potential Consequences Preliminary Rating: Low Moderate High Rationale Potential for multiple simultaneous spot fires can propagate at moderates of spread but can be held by skilled and prompt holding actions. Contingency forces must be available on call-up commensurate with local wildfire standards. Final Rating: Low Moderate High Technical Difficulty Preliminary Rating: Low Moderate High Rationale Holding operations will be supervised at the Single Resource Boss level. The entire burn unit is accessible to holding resources. No abnormal weather is anticipated and all key implementation personnel will be from the local area or from within the Great Plains Region. Final Rating: Low Moderate High Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -59 -RX 341 -PPT

RX-341 Prescribed Fire Plan Preparation Objectives Define the risk management process and how it relates to the complexity analysis. From the NWCG Prescribed Fire Complexity Rating System Guide: Identify the three factors of the complexity analysis. Identify the 14 elements that apply to the three risk factors of the complexity analysis. Describe how mitigation measures may change the rating of complexity element(s). Unit 4 Risk Assessment and Preliminary Complexity Analysis 04 -60 -RX 341 -PPT