Russian Foreign Policy drivers and perspectives SDU 6
- Slides: 10
Russian Foreign Policy: drivers and perspectives SDU, 6 February 2015 Ambassador Thomas Winkler, Moscow
Agenda Introduction Russian foreign policy: the drivers and issues The links: The current economic situation The internal political situation: consequences and scenarios Foreign policy perspectives Conclusions and Q&A
Russian Foreign Policy: the drivers and the issues THE DRIVERS The political interests of Russia: Security, paranoia and empire building - OLD Economic development - NEW Regime-change , flower revolutions and ”no interference in internal affairs” – OLD AND NEW The bi-polar world view with Russia as a global player - OLD Respect……. - OLD Ideology: Own values v. international values – OLD AND NEW
The need for an external enemy in time of crisis – SO OLD The state media campaign, fighting for Russians everywhere - OLD AND NEW Ø Consistency and upgrading Ø Population convinced about ”the external enemy” Ø High level of endurance and patience Ø No changes in policy in ”near-abroad” or? Ø A partner globally in some areas, Ø An adversary globally in other areas Ø ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NUANCES – NOT ONE RUSSIAN POLICY THAT FITS ALL SITUATIONS
THE ISSUES Crimea Ukraine – and the Russian purposes MEPP, Iran, disarmament, counter-terrorism, ISIL Syria, Human Rights Denmark – Russia, including the Arctic BUT……
The current economic situation Falling oilprices in an economy based on exporting raw materials – the ”curse” of the Russian economy A very weak rouble, capital flight Sanctions and need for refinancing of debt Own ”sanctions Ø Rising inflation, stop for investments Ø Deepening financial crisis around the corner? Ø Closures, unemployment – unrest? Ø Challeging the budget and the reserves Ø Choise: centralisation or reforms?
The internal political consequenses Unrest? From the middle class? From others? Locally? Putin clear 18. 12. : social promises stand, no (futher) centralisation, no currency control, more economic freedom But: does he mean it – and what does ”the others” say? Ø Internal politics
Alternatives: Internally in the government – more realism, defense expenses Ø More positive development – or too late? Or a new 1964? Ø centralisation, currency control, more negative development The answer? The internal power struggle: – hard externally, reforms internally? Sanctions – internal og eksternal – per summer 2015: more, less or none?
Foreign Policy Consequences SE Ukraine – stabilisation, escalation or more muddling through? Crimea – not up for discussion Relationship to the EU: More classical bilateralisation – the weaker links Relationship with Denmark – the history and the balances Relationship with the USA – no improvements in sight ”Turning East” – reality or illusion? Euroasiatic Economic – same – and our new ”friends”
Conclusion Decisive factors Internal politics, economy The endurance of the Russian population Will other states stand up? Ukraine in five years? Pick and choose Russia in 2040? The importance of P 2 P
