RUC RAOB TAMDAR SOUNDINGS Ed Szoke NOAA Forecast

RUC – RAOB – TAMDAR SOUNDINGS Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory *Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 1

TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – some observations ● At the time of the last meeting. . . ● Found lots of variability in the TAMDAR soundings ● Often soundings close in time were not consistent Now. . . ● ● Much less variability Soundings tend to show good consistency And generally compare better to nearby raobs August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 2

Overview ● Assessing TAMDAR data quality. . . quick review ● ● ● Examining impact of TAMDAR on RUC forecasts ● ● ● Compare TAMDAR soundings with each other Compare to a “verifying” raob sounding ● Concentrated on DTW and MSP and PIA Look at RUC forecast soundings with and without TAMDAR and compare to raobs Also compare RUC analyses Potential forecast value of TAMDAR soundings ● Consistency and potential usefulness of TAMDAR soundings. . . a brief case August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 3

TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – Weather at 1200 UTC 19 August 05 August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 4

TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 5

TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 6

TAMDAR soundings vs 1200 UTC 19 August 05 DTW RAOB – flights to ENE Agreement is not as good but note TAMDARS are heading NW and the raob would have headed to the ene. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 7

TAMDAR soundings vs RAOBs – DTW 1200 UTC 22 August 05 Quite a bit of lower level moisture over the Upper Midwest. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 8

TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the SE August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 9

TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the ENE August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 10

TAMDAR soundings vs DTW RAOB – flights to the NW Note that the raob heads to the ESE August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 11

TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the E Note the good consistency between TAMDARs 2 min apart. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 12

TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the E-ENE Not sure about the 1231 UTC TAMDAR flight. . . August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 13

TAMDAR soundings vs MSP RAOB – flights to the S Excellent agreement on the height of the inversion base. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 14

Next we will look at impact of TAMDAR on the RUC - Examine RUC with (“dev 2”) and without (“dev”) TAMDAR - Using mainly DTW and MSP locations - Look first at RUC analyses and compare to raobs - Then see if impact is seen in the forecasts by looking at mainly 3 and 6 h forecasts and comparing to raobs. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 15

RUC analysis soundings vs RAOBs – 18 August 2005 Surface map with radar for 1200 UTC. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 16

RUC analysis soundings vs DTW RAOB – 18 August 2005 Comparison of RUC analyses for 1200 UTC with (dev 2) and without (dev) TAMDAR. Appears to be a better match to the sounding when the TAMDAR data was included. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 17

RUC analysis soundings vs MSP RAOB – 1200 UTC 18 August 05 The same type of example from MSP; could argue that dev 2 is a slightly better match to the raob. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 18

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 3 h forecasts. -soundings are different, but dev 1 (w/o TAMDAR) may be closer match to raob. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 19

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 6 h forecasts. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 20

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 9 h forecasts. -9 h is rather far into the forecast but note differences do appear between the forecasts. . . not clear which one is better for this case. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 21

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 19 Aug Comparison of RUC forecast soundings for Detroit at 0000 UTC – 12 h forecasts. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 22

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 23 Aug 05 Quite a bit of low level moisture MIMN with extensive low clouds over MI. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 23

RUC forecast soundings vs RAOBs – 0000 UTC 23 Aug 05 TAMDAR data available for 2300 -0100 UTC, approximating what was available for the RUC 0000 UTC runs. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 24

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Detroit 0000 UTC raob. RH differences exist between the RUC analyses but dev 2 (with TAMDAR) does not look as good as dev 1 (RUC analysis without TAMDAR) for this site. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 25

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Minneapolis 0000 UTC raob. This time dev 2 (with TAMDAR) looks better at lower levels. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 26

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Davenport Iowa 0000 UTC raob. Dev 2 (with TAMDAR) temperature looks better at and above 850 mb. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 27

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Peoria Illinois 0000 UTC raob. No improvement seen for this site, but there are much fewer flights into PIA. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 28

RUC 6 h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison of 6 h RUC forecasts with the Detroit 0000 UTC raob. Mixed results, down low dev (w/o TAMDAR) looks best with T, but above ~850 mb dev 2 (with TAMDAR) closely matches the raob in T and Td. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 29

RUC 6 h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the MSP 0000 UTC raob. Less differences in the forecasts. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 30

RUC 6 h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Green Bay 0000 UTC raob. Mixed. . . T better, RH not, for dev 2 (with TAMDAR). August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 31

RUC 6 h forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 23 Aug Comparison with the Peoria 0000 UTC raob. Little difference between the 2 forecasts aob 800 mb, but better RH with dev 2 above this level. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 32

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug Quiet weather aloft but still lots of low level moisture, especially eastern WI through MI. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 33

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug TAMDAR flights before 1200 UTC. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 34

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug For Detroit. Not much difference down low, but aob 750 mb dev 2 RH better. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 35

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug MSP shown here. . . much better temperature for dev 2 in the lowest 100 mb. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 36

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 23 Aug Not true though at PIA, but again less TAMDAR here. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 37

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 38

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug The same type of example for 12 z from MSP; could argue that dev 2 is a better analysis. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 39

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug Analyses for Detroit. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 40

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug Analyses for MSP August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 41

RUC forecasts without TAMDAR for Detroit for 0000 UTC 24 Aug 3 and 6 h forecasts for Detroit. Improvement with time around 800 mb but not lower down. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 42

RUC forecasts with TAMDAR for Detroit for 0000 UTC 24 Aug Dev 2 forecasts more consistent. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 43

RUC forecasts without TAMDAR for MSP at 0000 UTC 24 August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 44

RUC forecasts with TAMDAR for MSP valid at 0000 UTC 24 August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 45

RUC forecasts with and without TAMDAR for 0000 UTC 24 Aug Comparing the two 3 -h forecasts. Note the great match from dev 2 for lower level T but dev is better for Td. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 46

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug Still lots of lower level moisture around. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 47

~TAMDAR availability for the 1200 UTC 24 Aug RUC August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 48

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug Analyses for Detroit. Much better moisture down low with TAMDAR. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 49

RUC analyses with and without TAMDAR for 1200 UTC 24 Aug Analyses for MSP. Dev 2 with TAMDAR captures the low level inversion better. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 50

Case study of potential forecast value of TAMDAR soundings -rapidly evolving environment in the Dakotas leading to tornadoes August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 51

Radar overview – 1900 UTC August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 52

Radar overview – 2100 UTC August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 53

Radar overview – 2200 UTC August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 54

Radar overview – 2300 UTC August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 55

TAMDAR availability: area is at the western edge of flights. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 56

BIS RAOBs – the day starts with VERY shallow moisture but increasing southerly flow above the surface. A lot happens before the next raob at 0000 UTC to set up a supercell environment what did TAMDAR show? August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 57

ABR RAOB with 1301 and 1326 UTC TAMDARs Note the increase in moisture just after the sounding launch and the increasing low level southerly flow. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 58

ABR TAMDARs from 1533 to 1938 UTC. This Aberdeen TAMDAR series of soundings nicely shows the increasing depth of low-level moisture even as the boundary layer warms. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 59

GFK TAMDARs from 1705 to 1913 UTC. Grand Forks TAMDAR series of soundings also shows the increasing depth of low-level moisture. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 60

GFK CAPE/CIN for TAMDARs from 1705 vs. 1913 UTC. Considerably less inhibition and more CAPE in just 2 h as shown by the TAMDAR soundings. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 61

Environmental variability within the spacing of the raob network Huge amount of variability on this day. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 62

Overall Summary TAMDAR quality has improved since our last meeting ● This allows forecasters to have more confidence in using the data ● Showing impact of TAMDAR on RUC forecasts is tricky ● But is fairly clear that one can see the impact on the analyses ● ● ● Would like to look more at < 3 h forecasts It is easier to find examples of how TAMDAR data can aid operational forecasting and these can be quite dramatic ● Compared with “smaller” effects in NWP models. August 25, 2005 Boulder TAMDAR Meeting - Ed Szoke 63