ROMS RealTime Modeling Data Assimilation and Forecasting during

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ROMS Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation and Forecasting during AOSN II Yi Chao, Zhijin Li,

ROMS Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation and Forecasting during AOSN II Yi Chao, Zhijin Li, Jei Choi, Peggy Li Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology JPL DAAC Other NASA DAACs Non -NASA Data Centers Ancillary Data Retrieval & Processing 3 D Model Assimilation Research Server (POET) COVO Application Server (GIS) Sci. GIS Server & Jim Mc. Williams, Xavier Capet, Patrick Marchesiello, Kayo Ide University of California, Los Angeles Feedback ASAP Meeting, Feb. 2005 1

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): 3 -Level On-Line Nesting Observation 2. 5 -km 10

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): 3 -Level On-Line Nesting Observation 2. 5 -km 10 -km 15/5/1. 5 -km 2 20 -km (Marchesiello et al. , 2003)

ROMS Data Assimilation System 3 -dimensional variational (3 DVAR) method: y: observation x: model

ROMS Data Assimilation System 3 -dimensional variational (3 DVAR) method: y: observation x: model J = 0. 5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0. 5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y) 12 -hour forecast Xa = Initial condition 3 Aug. 1 00 Z xf + xf xf 6 -hour forecast 6 -hour assimilation cycle Xa Aug. 1 06 Z 3 -day forecast Aug. 1 12 Z Aug. 1 18 Z Aug. 2 00 Z Time

Sea Surface Temperature Data & ROMS Reanalysis Aircraft 4

Sea Surface Temperature Data & ROMS Reanalysis Aircraft 4

Observed SST 5 ROMS-Simulated SST

Observed SST 5 ROMS-Simulated SST

03 Z 6 09 Z 15 Z 21 Z

03 Z 6 09 Z 15 Z 21 Z

AUV Remus ROMS Reanalysis (M. Moline) 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug

AUV Remus ROMS Reanalysis (M. Moline) 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 7 0 Distance (km) 23 Subsurface salinity minimal

Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against M 1 Independent Mooring Observations 8

Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against M 1 Independent Mooring Observations 8

Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations 9 M 2

Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations 9 M 2

Near-Term (3 -year) Challenges • Remote forcing from basin-scale climate (ENSO, PDO) • COAMPS

Near-Term (3 -year) Challenges • Remote forcing from basin-scale climate (ENSO, PDO) • COAMPS (short- & long-wave) radiative fluxes • Tidal processes • Real-time interactive feedback via OSSE (Observing System Simulation/Sensitivity Experiment) or “On-Demand Modeling” 10

How to provide large-scale B. C. ? 2003 summer off the U. S. West

How to provide large-scale B. C. ? 2003 summer off the U. S. West coast is anomalously warm! 11

El Nino’s Impact on U. S. West Coast Circulation 1989 12 2001

El Nino’s Impact on U. S. West Coast Circulation 1989 12 2001

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)’s Impact on California Coastal Circulation PDO- PDO+ 13 (Chao et

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)’s Impact on California Coastal Circulation PDO- PDO+ 13 (Chao et al. , GRL, 2001)

Regional Ocean Modeling System: Nesting High-Resolution Regional Models in Coarse-Resolution Models 15/5/1. 5 -km

Regional Ocean Modeling System: Nesting High-Resolution Regional Models in Coarse-Resolution Models 15/5/1. 5 -km 14

Simulating El Nino and La Nina with Pacific ROMS Temp SSH 15 Observations ROMS

Simulating El Nino and La Nina with Pacific ROMS Temp SSH 15 Observations ROMS

Simulated PDO: Sea Surface Temperature 16

Simulated PDO: Sea Surface Temperature 16

Net Incoming Short-Wave radiation • Reduction in the morning (diurnal cycle) • Reduction during

Net Incoming Short-Wave radiation • Reduction in the morning (diurnal cycle) • Reduction during the relaxation phase 17 • COAMPS didn’t reproduce these features, mostly due to the lack of clouds (lowlevel), which can be approximated with (1 -0. 7 nc)

Net Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation Red: COAMPS Blue: Outgoing computed by blackbody (0. 985 T

Net Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation Red: COAMPS Blue: Outgoing computed by blackbody (0. 985 T 4) radiation MINUS the computed (0. 38 -0. 05 e 0. 5) incoming radiation in the absence of clouds Green: Blackbody outgoing MINUS mooring measured incoming longwave radiation 18 * Cloud correction (1 -0. 6 nc 2)

Tidal Processes 19

Tidal Processes 19

End-to-End System Engineering: Autonomous Real-Time Operations Integrated Ocean Observing and Prediction Systems 20

End-to-End System Engineering: Autonomous Real-Time Operations Integrated Ocean Observing and Prediction Systems 20

OSSE Engine (On-Demand Modeling) 21

OSSE Engine (On-Demand Modeling) 21

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