RIVM The Netherlands The role of hydrofluorocarbons HFCs

(RIVM) The Netherlands The role of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for ozone and climate protection Guus Velders 1 August 24, 2015

HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol Dual protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate change – Already achieved climate benefits 5 -6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008 -2012 Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs – HFC emissions can reach 9 -19% of CO 2 emissions in 2050 2 Guus Velders

Range of different chemicals CFCs: fully halogenated ● CFCl 3 (CFC-11), CF 2 Cl 2 (CFC-12), etc. Other ozone depleting chemicals: ● CF 3 Br, CF 2 Cl. Br (Halons – bromine containing species) ● Methyl bromide/chloride, methyl chloroform, CCl 4 Alternatives: HCFCs: partially halogenated ● CHF 2 Cl (HCFC-22), CH 3 CFCl 2, CH 3 CF 2 Cl Alternatives: HFCs: no chlorine ● CH 2 FCF 3 (HFC-134 a), CHF 2 CF 3 (HFC-125), CH 3 CF 3 (HFC-143 a) ● New: CF 3 CF=CH 2 (HFO-1234 yf), CF 3 CH=CHF (HFO-1234 ze) 3 Guus Velders

Range of different applications (1) Refrigeration and air conditioning ● Domestic, commercial and industrial: – Originally: CFC-11, CFC-12 – Now: HCFC-22, HFCs, NH 3, CO 2, hydrocarbons ● Mobile air conditioning – Initially: CFC-12 – Now (since ~1995): HFC-134 a (all cars) Foam blowing: insulation, packaging ● Originally: CFCs ● Now: HFCs, hydrocarbons, others 4 Guus Velders

Range of different applications (2) Solvent: Dry cleaning, electronics industry ● Originally: CFCs, carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4), methyl chloroform (CH 3 CCl 3) ● Now: - mostly not-in-kind technologies, water, other chemicals - HFCs for some specialized uses Aerosols: Metered dose inhalers, spray cans (deodorant, hair) ● Originally: CFC-11 ● Now: hydrocarbons, not-in-kind, HFCs (limited uses) Fire fighting agent in aircraft and high-tech facilities ● Originally: halons and CCl 4 ● Now: Inert gas (e. g. CO 2), water, HFCs 5 Guus Velders

Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atoms 6 Guus Velders

Ozone depletion through Cl and Br atoms 7 Guus Velders

Montreal Protocol to protect ozone layer ● Montreal Protocol of 1987 ● Subsequent amendments ● Universal ratification ● EESC is a measure of Cl/Br available to destroy ozone ● Also important for ozone recovery ● ● ● 8 CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O emissions Very short lived species Rockets, aircraft Volcanoes Geoengeneering Guus Velders

Montreal Protocol changed chemicals used ● Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances ● It caused a change in chemicals used for refrigeration, AC, foam blowing, cleaning, fire extinguishing, etc. : CFCs HCFCs + other techn. HFCs + other techn. ● Well known benefits for ozone layer ● CFCs, HFCs are all strong greenhouse gases ● Global Warming Potentials (GWPs): – – 9 CFCs: HFCs: HFOs: 4, 700 – 11, 000 100 – 2, 200 130 – 4, 200 <20 Guus Velders

Well known benefits Montreal Protocol ● Large decreases in CFC production (>98%) and emissions (60 -90%) ● Concentrations also decreasing ● Emerging evidence of start of ozone layer recovery ● Full recovery before 2050, later in polar regions WMO (2011) 10 Guus Velders

Metrics used here ● Impacts on climate expressed by – CO 2 -equivalent emissions = Emission x GWPs – Radiative forcing of climate = Abundance x Radiative eff. (W/m 2/ppb) ● Impacts on ozone layer expressed by – CFC-11 -equivalent emissions = Emission x ODPs – Eq. Eff. Stratospheric Chlorine = Abundance x Frac. release + time delay 11 Guus Velders

Different metrics for ozone depleting chemicals ● Ozone layer: – ODP-weighed emissions – Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) ● Climate change: – GWP-weighed emissions – Radiative forcing WMO (2011) 12 Guus Velders

Large climate benefits Montreal Protocol CO 2 emissions World avoided by the Montreal Protocol Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 Gt. CO 2 -eq/yr 5 -6 times Kyoto target (incl. offsets: HFCs, ozone depl. ) Velders et al. , PNAS, 2007 13 Guus Velders

Radiative forcing leading to climate change Forcing: delay of ~10 years cf CO 2 emissions Reduction in radiative forcing of ~0. 23 Wm-2 in 2010 about 13% of CO 2 emissions of human activities • ~0. 1 °C cooling from Montreal Protocol (Estrada et al. ; Pretis and Allen, 2013) Velders et al. , PNAS (2007) 14 Guus Velders

HCFC growth ● CFC phaseout globally in 2010 Accelerated increases in HCFCs ● Developing countries: – HCFC consumption increase: 20%/yr (up to 2007) – CFC+HCFC increase: 8%/yr ● Starting point new scenarios ● HFC-23 emissions not considered Montzka et al. , GRL (2009) 15 Guus Velders

HFC: Expected large growth ● HCFCs – Developed countries: controls since 1996 – Developing countries: controls since 2013 – Phaseout in 2030/2040 Much of application demand for refrigeration, AC, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Montzka, NOAA/ESRL – Current forcing small (<1% of total GHG forcing) – Current growth rates of HFCs: 10 -15% per year ● Increases directly attributable to Montreal Protocol ● Climate effect is a unintended negative side effect Photo W. S. Velders 16 Guus Velders

HFC scenarios ● New HFC scenarios developed – Unchecked emissions – Extrapolating developed country use patterns ● Based on – – – – 17 Increased HCFC consumption developing countries Atmospheric observations of HCFCs and HFCs Observed replacements patterns: HCFCs to HFCs IPCC-SRES: growth rates GDP and population Provisions Montreal Protocol Increases in HFC-134 a use in mobile AC Saturation of HFC consumption Guus Velders

Replacing HCFCs with HFCs ● Refrigeration, air conditioning, foam production ● Replacement scheme developed countries: – – HCFC-22 35% R 404 A, 55% R 410 A, 10% NIK HCFC-141 b 50% HFC-245 fa, 50% NIK HCFC-142 b 50% HFC-134 a, 50% NIK R 404 A, R 410 A: Blends of HFC-32, -125, -134 a, -143 a ● Applied to developing countries ● Mobile AC: HFC-134 a ● Inhaler: HFC-134 a ● Foam, aerosol: HFC-365 mfc, HFC-152 a (minor use) 18 Guus Velders

HFCs offset climate benefits Montreal Protocol • In 2010, CFCs could have reached 15– 18 Gt. CO 2 -eq yr-1 (in absence of Montreal Protocol) • In 2050, HFC emissions: 5. 5– 8. 8 Gt. CO 2 -eq yr-1 = 9– 19% of global CO 2 emissions ● Larger in comparison with CO 2 stabilization scenarios from IPCC/AR 4 Velders et al. , PNAS, 2009 19 Guus Velders

Offsets in terms of radiative forcing ● In 2010, reduction due to Montreal Protocol 0. 23 W/m 2 (incl. offsets) ● In 2050, forcing HFCs – 0. 40 W/m 2 0. 25 – Compared with CO 2 (BAU) of 2. 9– 3. 5 W/m 2 – Equivalent to that from 6 – 13 years of CO 2 emis. ● In 2050, HFC forcing ~ reduction from CO 2 stabilization scenario 20 Guus Velders

Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol ● Montreal Protocol: – – – Protection of ozone layer (UNEP treaty 1987) Production and consumption Gases: CFCs, halons, HCFCs, methyl bromide, etc. Phase-out schedule (CFCs 2010, HCFCs 2030/2040) Climate considerations taken into account Very successful: Universal ratification ● Kyoto Protocol: – – – 21 Protection of climate (UN treaty 1997) Emissions Basket of 6 gases: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 ~5% reduction from 1990 by 2008 -2012 Emissions reductions of “gases not covered by the Montreal Protocol” Successful? Guus Velders

What is happening in the political arena ● Amendments proposed to include HFCs in Montreal Protocol – Strong support – – Problem caused by Montreal Protocol Instruments available Climate considerations are in the text of the Montreal Protocol Bali decleration by 100+ countries – Strong opposition – HFCs to not destroy ozone – Already in Kyoto – Financial/legal concerns ● Sept. 2013: G 20 supports initiatives to use expertise and institutions of Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs ● Climate and Clean Air Coalition 22 Guus Velders

What is happening in industry (car makers) ● Since 1990 s all mobile air-conditioners use HFC-134 a (GWP 1370) ● In EU: mobile AC directive: – Refrigerant should have GWP <150 – From 2011 for new type of vehicles (derogation until 12/2012) – In 2013: German car maker still used HFC-134 a France blocked registration of new Mercedes ● Alternatives for HFC-134 a: – HFC-1234 yf (more or less drop in replacement) – CO 2 promoted by German EPA (needs redesign of engine) – HFC-152 a (flammable) Honeywell (2008) 23 Guus Velders

Wide range of HFC lifetimes and GWPs ● Fully saturated HFCs: – HFC-32, -125, -134 a, -143 a, -152 a – Lifetimes: 1 to 50 yr – GWPs: 100 to 4000 ● Unsaturated HFCs (HFOs): – HFC-1234 yf, -1234 ze – Lifetimes: days to weeks – GWPs: ~20 or less ● If current HFC mix (lifetime 15 yr) were replaced by HFCs with lifetimes less 1 month forcing in 2050 less than current HFC forcing Velders et al. , Science, 2012 24 Guus Velders

Changes in types of applications ● CFCs (1980 s) used in very emissive applications ● Spray cans, chemical cleaning ● Release within a year ● HFCs used mostly in slow release applications ● Refrigeration, AC: release from 1 – 10 yr ● Foams: release > 10 yr Velders et al. , ACP, 2014 25 Guus Velders

Role of the banks increases ● Banks: HFCs present in equipment: refrigerators, AC, foams, etc. ● Bank about 7 times annual emission ● Phaseout in 2020 instead of 2050 ● Avoided emission: 91 -146 Gt. CO 2 -eq ● Avoided bank: 39 - 64 Gt. CO 2 -eq Banks: climate change commitment ● Choices: ● Bank collection, destruction: difficult/costly ● Avoid the buildup of the bank: early phaseout Velders et al. , ACP, 2014 26 Guus Velders

Alternatives to ODSs and HFCs ● Replacing high-GWP HFCs with substances with low impact on climate: – Hydrocarbons, CO 2, NH 3, unsaturated HFCs – Alternative technologies ● Reducing emissions: – Changing designs – Capture and destruction ● Low-climate impact alternatives already available commercially in several sectors: – – 27 Fiber insulation materials (e. g. , mineral wool) Dry powder asthma inhalers Hydrocarbons, CO 2, ammonia in refrigeration systems Unsaturated HFCs introduced for foams, aerosols and mobile AC Guus Velders

Life cycle climate performance (LCCP) ● Important is the total effect on climate ● Direct climate forcings – GWP-weighted emissions, Radiative forcing ● Indirect climate forcings – Energy used or saved during the application lifespan – Energy used to during manufacturing ● Total effect on climate Life cycle climate performance ● Also important: costs, availability, flammability, toxicity, humidity, etc. 28 Guus Velders

Conclusions ● Dual protection Montreal Protocol: to Ozone layer and Climate change: ● Already achieved climate benefits 5 -6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008 -2012 ● Climate benefits Montreal Protocol can be preserved by limiting HFC growth ● Challenge for policymakers: identify how this can be accomplished 29 Guus Velders

Work performed in close collaboration with: David Fahey (NOAA) John Daniel (NOAA) Steve Andersen (formerly at EPA) Mack Mc. Farland (Du. Pont) Susan Solomon (MIT) Thank you for your attention References: - 30 Velders Velders et et et al. , Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. , 104, 2007 Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. , 106, 2009 Science, 335, 922, 2012 ACP, 14, 2757, 2014 ACP, 14, 4563, 2014 HFC-134 a and its main IR-frequency Guus Velders