RiskBased Pipeline Route Optimization for the Persian Gulf

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Risk-Based Pipeline Route Optimization for the Persian Gulf Region Scott Byron Exxon. Mobil Corporation

Risk-Based Pipeline Route Optimization for the Persian Gulf Region Scott Byron Exxon. Mobil Corporation GEOG 596 A Peer Review October 1, 2009 Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar Sand dunes in the UAE Court. : Exposed. Planet. com Installation of offshore pipeline – Iran Courtesy Iranian Offshore Engineering and Consulting Co.

Presentation Overview • Overview & Background • Workflow diagrams • Analysis factor identification methodology

Presentation Overview • Overview & Background • Workflow diagrams • Analysis factor identification methodology • Data collection & preparation • Proposed Analysis Courtesy: NASA

Project Overview

Project Overview

Project Objectives • Identify three alternative pipeline alignments using common weighting techniques • Identify

Project Objectives • Identify three alternative pipeline alignments using common weighting techniques • Identify & weigh analysis factors using risk management approach Qatar – Abu Dhabi – Oman Pipeline Courtesy: Oil & Gas Journal

Business Drivers • Increasing demand on Persian Gulf’s hydrocarbon reserves • Pipelines are most

Business Drivers • Increasing demand on Persian Gulf’s hydrocarbon reserves • Pipelines are most economic means of transport • Growing awareness of the benefits of using GIS during project planning

Project Constraints • Must comply with company data restrictions • Must incorporate Exxon. Mobil’s

Project Constraints • Must comply with company data restrictions • Must incorporate Exxon. Mobil’s policies on safety and risk management

Insights from Literature Review • Many examples of terrestrial route optimization • Documented cost

Insights from Literature Review • Many examples of terrestrial route optimization • Documented cost and time savings • Variable number of analysis factors • Factors often determined through group consensus • Variety of weighting techniques • Risks consideration implied, only one example is risked based

Regional Overview

Regional Overview

Regional Overview • Population growth, oil wealth increasing regional hydrocarbon consumption • Pipelines needed

Regional Overview • Population growth, oil wealth increasing regional hydrocarbon consumption • Pipelines needed to bring new reserves to market • Nearly 80 year development history 2000 Oil Consumption (barrels/1, 000 people) 0. 14 – 0. 33 33. 01 - 65. 87 65. 88 - 98. 73 98. 74 - 131. 60 Oil Fields Pipelines Key Map

Regional Overview • Extreme desert environments • Variable land uses • Variable surface conditions

Regional Overview • Extreme desert environments • Variable land uses • Variable surface conditions & slope stability • Limited agricultural area supports regional population 2000 Regional Land Use Forest Shrub/Grasses Crops Desert Semi Desert Rock Outcrop Urban Rivers Key Map

Regional Overview • Shallow water depths, high temperatures & salinity • Variable seabed conditions

Regional Overview • Shallow water depths, high temperatures & salinity • Variable seabed conditions • Major commercial route, constrained by Strait of Hormuz • Growing awareness of environmental issues Persian Gulf Region Topography & Bathymetry -1, 788 m -90 m Max depth of Persian Gulf 0 m 2, 863 m Hillshade courtesy Carla Wilson Key Map

Methodology

Methodology

Study Area Selection • Centered on Persian Gulf markets • Disk space use is

Study Area Selection • Centered on Persian Gulf markets • Disk space use is a consideration • Encompasses a variety of geographic zones Persian Gulf Region Topography & Bathymetry -1, 788 m -90 m Max depth of Persian Gulf 0 m 2, 863 m Hillshade courtesy Carla Wilson Key Map

Projection System Considerations • Analysis requires consistent projection • Distance measurements are a priority

Projection System Considerations • Analysis requires consistent projection • Distance measurements are a priority • Latitude suggests use of conic projection system • Chose equidistant projection, optimized for study area to minimize distortion Optimized equidistant conic projection

Workflow: Factor Identification Identify Potential Risk Factors Select High Priority Risk Factors Literature review

Workflow: Factor Identification Identify Potential Risk Factors Select High Priority Risk Factors Literature review Team discussion Potential risk factors Formal risk analysis High priority risk factors selected for analysis Expert opinion Completed In Progress

Factor Identification Results of process: • 40+ risk factors identified • Lack of expert

Factor Identification Results of process: • 40+ risk factors identified • Lack of expert input • Expect 10 – 20 high priority risk factors • Data availability a problem Partial list of factors

Workflow: Data Collection & Preparation Gather Data Prepare Data Internet search No Is data

Workflow: Data Collection & Preparation Gather Data Prepare Data Internet search No Is data useful? Yes Global or regional vector, raster, tif & tabular data w/ citations Tent. Completed Processing steps • Conversion • Merge • Registration • Resampling • Set extent • Transformed & aligned raster layer for each high priority risk factor In Progress

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations: 1) Is the resolution sufficient? 1 km

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations: 1) Is the resolution sufficient? 1 km Too coarse? 2) Is the data outdated? 2000 population density data Too old?

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations (cont’d): 3) Can the data be accurately

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations (cont’d): 3) Can the data be accurately registered & digitized? Good registration control points? 4) Is the data complete? No marine data 1 km Unregistered seismic hazard map

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations (cont’d): 5) Is the data type suitable?

Data Collection & Preparation Data collection considerations (cont’d): 5) Is the data type suitable? Coral Reefs Point or polygon? 6) Are value units known? Coral Reefs. Traffic Shipping Calculations & reclassification

Data Collection & Preparation Data preparation considerations: 1) Raster resampling? 2) Combining marine &

Data Collection & Preparation Data preparation considerations: 1) Raster resampling? 2) Combining marine & terrestrial datasets + = 300 m cells 1 km cells Which resolution? Edge effects

Data Collection & Preparation Data preparation considerations (cont’d): 3) How will the coastline be

Data Collection & Preparation Data preparation considerations (cont’d): 3) How will the coastline be handled? Coastlines need to be aligned Potential for data loss and gaps Northeast Bahrain Is.

Workflows: Weighting Gather Opinions Simple indexing Formal risk analysis Team discussion Literature review Survey

Workflows: Weighting Gather Opinions Simple indexing Formal risk analysis Team discussion Literature review Survey Determine Weights Selection Frequency & Degree of Importance data for each high priority risk factor In Progress Pair based comparisons Pending One set of factor weights Two sets of factor weights

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 1) Simple Weighed Index

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 1) Simple Weighed Index • Index values reflect Probability of Occurrence & Potential Impact scores Increasing risk • High priority risk factors ordered by increasing risk

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 2) Pair Based Comparison

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 2) Pair Based Comparison • All factors compared, one pair at a time • Evaluating Brown & Peterson method (B&P), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Factor A Factor C > Factor B < Factor A = Factor B

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 2) Pair Based Comparison

Weighting Literature described different weighting methods. Want to compare results. 2) Pair Based Comparison (Cont’d) • B&P relies on Selection Frequency, has no factor categories • AHP relies on Degree of Importance, can use factor categories Factor A Factor C > Factor B < Factor A = Factor C

Workflow: Analysis Methodology Generate Analysis Surfaces Risk factor layers Identify Pipeline Alignments Three weight

Workflow: Analysis Methodology Generate Analysis Surfaces Risk factor layers Identify Pipeline Alignments Three weight sets Least-cost path analysis between provided start and end points Map algebra and reclassification Three alternative pipeline alignments (SWI Optimized, B&P Optimized, AHP Optimized) Three risk weighted analysis surfaces (SWI, B&P, AHP) Pending

Questions?

Questions?

References Analysis Methodology Berry, J. K. (2009, August 6). Applying AHP in Weighting GIS

References Analysis Methodology Berry, J. K. (2009, August 6). Applying AHP in Weighting GIS Model Criteria. Retrieved from http: //www. innovativegis. com/basis/Supplements/BM_Sep_03/T 39_3_AHPsupplem ent. htm Dey P. K. (2001). Integrated approach to project feasibility analysis: A case study. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. 19(3), 235 -245. Dey P. K. and Gupta S. S. (2000). Decision-support system yields better pipeline route. Oil and Gas Journal. 98(22), 68 -73. Longley, P. A. , Goodchild, M. F. , Ma. Guire, D. J. & Rhind, D. W. (2005). Geographic Information Systems and Science, 2 nd Ed. . London: John Wiley& Sons, Ltd. .

References Analysis Methodology (Cont’d) Montemurro D. , Barnett S. , & Gale T. (1998).

References Analysis Methodology (Cont’d) Montemurro D. , Barnett S. , & Gale T. (1998). GIS-based process helps Trans. Canada select best route for expansion line. Oil and Gas Journal. 96(25), 6371. Saaty T. L. , Vargas L. G. , and Dellmann K. 2003. The allocation of intangible resources: The analytic hierarchy process and linear programming. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. 37 (3): 169 -184. Pipelines Braestrup, Mikael W. Design and Installation of Marine Pipelines. . Blackwell Publishing. Online version available at: http: //knovel. com. ezaccess. libraries. psu. edu/web/portal/browse/display? _EXT_KNOVEL_DIS PLAY_bookid=1384&Vertical. ID=0

References Pipelines (Cont’d) Guo, Boyun; Song, Shanhong; Chacko, Jacob; Ghalambor, Ali Offshore Pipelines. Elsevier.

References Pipelines (Cont’d) Guo, Boyun; Song, Shanhong; Chacko, Jacob; Ghalambor, Ali Offshore Pipelines. Elsevier. Online version available at: http: //knovel. com. ezaccess. libraries. psu. edu/web/portal/browse/display? _EXT_KN OVEL_DISPLAY_bookid=1258&Vertical. ID=0 Data Global Seismic Hazard Program. (2009 August 27). Middle East Hazard Map. Retrieved from: http: //www. seismo. ethz. ch/GSHAP/ National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. (2009, August 2). Commercial Activity (Shipping) Dataset. Retrieved from: http: //www. nceas. ucsb. edu/Global. Marine/impacts

References Data (Cont’d) Nation. Master. com. (2009, September 22). Oil Consumption (per Capita) (Most

References Data (Cont’d) Nation. Master. com. (2009, September 22). Oil Consumption (per Capita) (Most Recent) by Country. Retrieved from: http: //www. nationmaster. com/graph/ene_oil_con_percap-energy-oil-consumptionper-capita Tupper, M. , Tewfik, A. , Tan, M. K. , Tan, S. L. , The, L. H. , Radius, N. J. , & Abdullah, S. (2009, September 2) Reef. Base: A Global Information System on Coral Reefs [Online]. Retrieved from: http: //www. reefbase. org United Nations Environmental Program. (2009, August 18). Global Environment Outlook (GEO) Data Portal. Retrieved from: http: //geodata. grid. unep. ch/ United States Geological Survey. (2009, September 2). Earthquake Hazards Program: Epicenters Database. Retrieved from: http: //neic. usgs. gov/neis/epic_rect. html World Database on Protected Areas. (2009, August 5). Annual Release 2009 Dataset. Retrieved from: http: //www. wdpa. org/Default. aspx

References Data (Cont’d) World Wildlife Fund. (2009, August 21). Global Lakes and Wetlands Database.

References Data (Cont’d) World Wildlife Fund. (2009, August 21). Global Lakes and Wetlands Database. Retrieved from: http: //www. worldwildlife. org/science/data/item 1877. html