Risk Risk is the product of Probability that

Risk ¬Risk is the product of – Probability that something will go wrong And – Severity of its consequences ¬How to reduce risk? – Reduce probability that something will go wrong – Reduce severity of consequences

Technical Risk Management TRM ¬TRM 4 -step Methodology – Risk Identification – Risk Assessment – Risk Mitigation – Risk Monitoring

Risk Identification ¬Risk Identification is best done as a group – Identify the desired outcome – Use brainstorming methods to identify risks – Continue until no more risks are identified

Risk Assessment ¬Risk Assessment – What are the odds of the risk event occurring • • • Rare Unlikely Possible Likely Frequent

Risk Assessment ¬Risk Assessment – What are the consequences of the risk event • • Catastrophic Severe Marginal (not severe but significant enough) Negligible – In design projects, the consequences are usually in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS targets.

Risk Scoring Matrix Frequent Likely Possible Unlikely Rare Catastrophic E E H H M Severe E H H M L Marginal H M M L L Negligible M L L

Risk Assessment ¬Levels of Risk – Extreme – Do not accept level of risk – High – Do not accept level of risk – Medium – Mitigate if resources allow – Low - Accept

Risk Mitigation Plan ¬Reducing the probability of failure ¬More knowledge Less Risk – More accurate assessment • • Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies, statistical data – Design changes

Risk Mitigation Plan ¬Reducing consequences of events – More accurate assessment of consequences • • Analysis Simulation Experimentation Published studies – Design Changes

Example ¬Assessment: • Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic. ¬Mitigation • Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely. • Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR • Select higher strength or larger bolts • Add features to contain damage in case of failure

Example ¬Risk – Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off • Probability: High • Consequences: Severe injury or death – Risk Assessment: Extreme

Example – Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event) • More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm – Conclusions: Very unlikely • Design Changes – Add screws or other retaining parts – Use epoxy – Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

Example – Mitigation (Reducing consequences) • More accurate assessment of consequences – Remains catastrophic • Reducing consequences of the event – Add an enclosure – Operate remotely