Risk Management RISK n RISK the probability and

Risk Management

RISK n RISK = the probability and severity of loss linked to hazards. n The probability of an undesirable outcome.

HAZARD = a condition that exists with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of equipment or property; or mission degradation.

RISK ASSESSMENT = the identification and assessment of hazards.

RISK MANAGEMENT n RISK MANAGEMENT = A decision making process that uses risk analysis tools to make risk informed decisions for the complex choices we face. It’s making decisions that balance risk exposure with mission benefits.

RISK vs GAIN or BENEFIT The amount of risk of an action weighed against the potential benefit.

Risk Decision The decision to accept, reject, or transfer the risk(s) associated with an action.

Three Levels of Risk Management 1. Strategic 2. Deliberate 3. Time Critical

Strategic §Done at 30, 000 foot level §Identifies values at risk §Identifies Course of Action alternatives §Evaluates exposure, cost, and other factors among different alternatives §Course of Action chosen by agency administrator

SRA Template 1. Risk Assessment v v Values at Risk Probability of value being harmed Consequences of harm Potential benefits 2. Risk Analysis v Comparison of Alternatives – exposure, cost 3. Risk Communication v Who are the stakeholders? v Who needs to know? 4. Risk Sharing v Engage internally and externally as appropriate v Share vertically and horizontally throughout the organization v Obtain understanding, acceptance, and support for the range of alternatives and likely decision

5. Risk Decision v Document risk decision v Explain rationale 6. Risk Monitoring v Revise as necessary due to changing conditions

Strategy Full-perimeter containment using indirect line. Total Prospect Area (acres) 52, 200 Prospect perimeter (chains) 3, 360 chains Planned Contingency Line (chains) None – full perimeter containment Estimated Incident Responder Exposure (person hours) 377, 202 person hours Estimated Cost $22. 0 million Strategy Point protection and check lines. Total Prospect Area (acres) 17, 500 Prospect Containment Line Completed (chains) 264 Planned Contingency Line (chains) 160 chains (estimate) Estimated Incident Responder Exposure (person hours) 72, 964 person hours Estimated Cost $ 3. 9 million

Prospect #1 Perimeter Control, Contingency Checking and Monitoring Prospect #2 Full Perimeter Control Total Prospect Area (acres) 2, 600 (estimated) Prospect Containment Line (chains) NA 600 Estimated Contingency Line (chains) 300 NA Estimated Incident Responder Exposure (person 47, 436 person hours) Estimated Cost $ 2, 283, 260 2, 000 (estimated) 96, 348 person hours $ 5, 203, 086

Deliberate § A multi-step, analytical, sequential process § Linkage with strategic level - analysis of missions that come from the strategic risk assessment’s incident objectives § Generally will be performed at the IMT level as part of the planning process

THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

Risk Management Process Feedback and record the hazard identification and assessment and risk mitigation An action is being considered Identify hazards/consequences and assess risks Define the level of probability Define the level of severity Define the level of risk Take action and continue the operation YES Is the risk level acceptable? NO Take action and continue the operation YES Can the risk be eliminated? NO YES Can the risk be mitigated? YES Can the residual risk be accepted? (if any) Take action and continue the operation ICAO Safety Management Systems (SMS) Course NO Cancel the operation

THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

Risk Management 215 A

ASSESS RISKS SEVERITY - What are the effects? PROBABILITY - Can this happen to us? EXPOSURE - What is the event frequency or degree of involvement?

Likelihood/Probability Severity Negligible Marginal Catastrophic HIGH Frequent Probable MEDIUM Occasional Remote LOW Improbable Critical

Defining Probability and Severity Levels Severity Scale Definitions Catastrophic Critical Results in fatality/fatalities and/or loss of the system. Severe injury and/or major system damage. Marginal Minor injury and/or minor system damage. Negligible Less than minor injury/or less than minor system damage. Likelihood/Probability Scale Definitions Frequent Individual Likely to occur often. All Resources Continuously experienced. Probable Individual Will occur several times. All Resources Will occur often. Occasional Individual Likely to occur sometime. All Resources Will occur several times. Remote Individual Unlikely to occur, but possible. All Resources Unlikely but can reasonably be expected to occur. Improbable Individual So unlikely, it can be assumed it will not occur. All Resources Unlikely to occur, but possible.

Residual Risk The level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected.

Time Critical § Risk assessments done “on the fly” by firefighters at the ground level. § Deference to expertise. § Make risk decisions at the appropriate level. § Doctrinal approach.

Decision Space Time Critical Data Deliberate Time Strategic

STOP!

Intolerable region Tolerable region Acceptable region The risk is unacceptable under most conditions The risk is acceptable based on mitigation The risk is acceptable as it currently stands