Risk factors for instability External Internal Bad regional

Risk factors for instability External Internal • Bad regional neighborhood • Geopolitical Competition • Low GDP/capita • Economic decline • History of conflict • Organized • Natural resource crime and dependency terrorist networks • Horizontal • Conflict inequality financing • Demographic systems patterns • Climate change • HIV/AIDS

Country capacity and resilience State Capacity • Security • Macro-economic fundamentals • Public goods provision Civil Society • Traditional/ religious/ interest groups Constraints on state power • Political institutions • Legal/economic institutions • Executive checks & balances Social Contract • Leadership • Legitimacy • Expectations vs. delivery

External stabilising factors Security Guarantees • Bilateral • Multilateral Political Relationships • Bilateral diplomatic ties • Regional organization Economic Associations • Open external markets • High quality FDI • Remittances

Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units CM 1 Fully Capable CM 2 Capabl e with. Coalitio n Support CM 3 Partially Capable CM 4 Not Capable Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga Uniformed Police Districts (365) 0 6 6 296 57 Border Police Battalions (33) 0 0 0 33 0 Civil Order Police Battalions (20) 0 6 2 2 10 Counter Narcotics Police Units (15) 0 0 10 3 2 Number of ANP units (433) 0 12 (3%) 18 (4%) 334 (77%) 69 (16%) GAO June 18, 2008 Testimony Before the Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives “AFGHANISTAN SECURITY” “U. S. Efforts to Develop Capable Afghan Police Forces Face Challenges and Need a Coordinated, Detailed Plan to Help Ensure Accountability” Statement of Charles Michael Johnson, Jr. , Director International Affairs and Trade GAO-08 -883 T

Table 3: Defense Assessment of ANP Capabilities, as of April 2008 Police units CM 1 Fully Capable CM 2 Capable with. Coalition Support CM 3 Partially Capable CM 4 Not Capable Unit Not Formed or Not Reportinga 18 16 22 317 61 Uniformed Police Districts (365) Border Police Battalions (33) Civil Order Police Battalions (20) Counter Narcotics Police Units (15) Number of ANP units (433)